God, I hate this list server. I have to always remember to hit "Reply all" for it to go to the list.
On 05/22/2025 8:10 PM EDT robert bristow-johnson rbj@audioimagination.com wrote:
On 05/22/2025 7:16 PM EDT Etjon Basha etjonbasha@gmail.com wrote:
Hi Robert,
Alas, laborious but far from simple.
I think it's conceptually quite simple. But laborious.
Do you reckon pairwise matrices would be easily computed by hand by volunteers?
Yes. But this work is distributed. Even for a large city (like NYC) or an entire state (like Maine or Alaska), it's quite doable if each town can perform their own recount independently and the final results of the recount are published and are summable.
So, if there are N candidates (let's count "Combined Write-In" as one of those candidates), the ballot pile (and this is a pile of ballots for only the small town or for a single voting precinct, essentially for a single ballot bag that has the ballots that were inserted into a single voting tabulator) is processed N(N-1)/2 times. For 2 candidates, that's once (like for FPTP). For 3 candidates, that's 3 times. For 4 candidates, it's 6 times. These are finite numbers. Totally doable.
For each pass, it's about a pair of candidates, A and B. Each ballot has one of three states, which are tallied. Either A is preferred to B or B is preferred to A or there is no apparent preference of either (like neither are marked or both are marked to the same ranking level). Three tallies.
In Vermont, when we have a recount, when the bag is opened, the first thing is that the serial number on the bag seal is read and confirmed to be the same number that was recorded on election night when the bag was first sealed. Then we dump the ballots out onto a big table in full visibility to everyone on scene. Then we, in pairs of counters, count out individual mini-piles of exactly 50 ballots each and clip those ballots together with a unique mini-pile increment (like "Pile 1", "Pile 2", etc.) and a tally cover sheet with the pile number is clipped in with those 50 ballots.
Then, with teams of 4, and no more than two recounters can be from the same party in each team, we count the ballots of a mini-pile at least twice and make sure the tallies agree before we're done with that mini-pile. In the recount, two persons (different party affiliation) are the Callers and two persons (different party affiliation) are the Counters or Talliers.
The Callers identify the state of the ballot. For Condorcet (we don't do Condorcet yet in Vermont), they would say "A" if it's A>B and they would say "B" if it's B>A. Or "Null" or "Tied" if it's neither a vote for A or B. Or rarely, there is a dispute about that particular ballot. The Counters will tally whatever the Callers say. There would be 4 columns of tally marks, "A>B", "B>A", "Null or Tied", and "Disputed". There would be tally marks under each column. The number of those marks must add to 50 and the corresponding tallies between the two Counters must agree. If they agree, the roles of the Callers and Counters are swapped and the process is repeated for the same 50 ballots. If the two recounts of the bunch of 50 ballots totally agree, that mini-pile is done, the tallies are shown on the cover sheet, all are clipped together and go to the completed pile that the Clerk is monitoring and she puts the tallies for that bunch into a computer spreadsheet.
There are other issues in a recount and these include what to do with poorly-marked ballots and what to do if the callers disagree with what the ballot actually says. This is the normal thing. But, at the end of the day, every ballot is fully examined multiple times and a consistent discernment of what the ballot says is made and documented on the tally cover sheet for each mini-pile.
Now, for FPTP, this happens to the entire pile once. For Condorcet, it would have to happen 6 times to the pile if there were 4 candidates. So, instead of taking 1 hour, it might take 6. But, because of summability, we can get bigger crews for a larger town or larger voting precinct (say, with 1000 or 2000 voters, that's the biggest we get in Vermont for a single voting precinct) and work, separately and simultaneously, on different portions of the big pile. Because the end result will be separate summable tallies for bunches of 50 ballots, each numbered and clipped, so if there's a real legal fight, the District Judge will know which mini-pile and which funky ballot he/she has to look at to judge the ballot's value. At the end of the day, each ballot is fully adjudicated and consistent repeatable tallies are published. Everyone knows what those numbers are, media, competing campaigns, and of course, the office of the Secretary of State who will declare who the winner is.
Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic on this one issue.
The recount process is nearly identical to what we do with FPTP now. It would just have to be expanded to be making the very same decision for each ballot for the multiple pairings of candidates. In a single pass you do each pairing for the whole pile, one pairing for that pass. That's increased quantity, not increased complexity.
Another thing is, if the recount is concerned about only two candidates, like only the two leading candidates are disputing who won and the other minor candidates are not disputing their loss, then the recount of a Condorcet election only need to process the pass involving those two candidates. Then it's no more work than a recount would be for FPTP.
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
.
.
.
Does indeed sound feasible, or at least more so than Nanson.
Probably overblown on my end then.
Regards,
Etjon
On Fri, 23 May 2025, 10:34 am robert bristow-johnson via Election-Methods, <
election-methods@lists.electorama.com> wrote:
God, I hate this list server. I have to always remember to hit "Reply
all" for it to go to the list.
On 05/22/2025 8:10 PM EDT robert bristow-johnson <
rbj@audioimagination.com> wrote:
On 05/22/2025 7:16 PM EDT Etjon Basha etjonbasha@gmail.com wrote:
Hi Robert,
Alas, laborious but far from simple.
I think it's conceptually quite simple. But laborious.
Do you reckon pairwise matrices would be easily computed by hand by
volunteers?
Yes. But this work is distributed. Even for a large city (like NYC) or
an entire state (like Maine or Alaska), it's quite doable if each town can
perform their own recount independently and the final results of the
recount are published and are summable.
So, if there are N candidates (let's count "Combined Write-In" as one of
those candidates), the ballot pile (and this is a pile of ballots for
only the small town or for a single voting precinct, essentially for a
single ballot bag that has the ballots that were inserted into a single
voting tabulator) is processed N(N-1)/2 times. For 2 candidates, that's
once (like for FPTP). For 3 candidates, that's 3 times. For 4 candidates,
it's 6 times. These are finite numbers. Totally doable.
For each pass, it's about a pair of candidates, A and B. Each ballot
has one of three states, which are tallied. Either A is preferred to B or
B is preferred to A or there is no apparent preference of either (like
neither are marked or both are marked to the same ranking level). Three
tallies.
In Vermont, when we have a recount, when the bag is opened, the first
thing is that the serial number on the bag seal is read and confirmed to be
the same number that was recorded on election night when the bag was first
sealed. Then we dump the ballots out onto a big table in full visibility
to everyone on scene. Then we, in pairs of counters, count out individual
mini-piles of exactly 50 ballots each and clip those ballots together with
a unique mini-pile increment (like "Pile 1", "Pile 2", etc.) and a tally
cover sheet with the pile number is clipped in with those 50 ballots.
Then, with teams of 4, and no more than two recounters can be from the
same party in each team, we count the ballots of a mini-pile at least twice
and make sure the tallies agree before we're done with that mini-pile. In
the recount, two persons (different party affiliation) are the Callers and
two persons (different party affiliation) are the Counters or Talliers.
The Callers identify the state of the ballot. For Condorcet (we don't
do Condorcet yet in Vermont), they would say "A" if it's A>B and they would
say "B" if it's B>A. Or "Null" or "Tied" if it's neither a vote for A or
B. Or rarely, there is a dispute about that particular ballot. The
Counters will tally whatever the Callers say. There would be 4 columns of
tally marks, "A>B", "B>A", "Null or Tied", and "Disputed". There would be
tally marks under each column. The number of those marks must add to 50
and the corresponding tallies between the two Counters must agree. If
they agree, the roles of the Callers and Counters are swapped and the
process is repeated for the same 50 ballots. If the two recounts of the
bunch of 50 ballots totally agree, that mini-pile is done, the tallies
are shown on the cover sheet, all are clipped together and go to the
completed pile that the Clerk is monitoring and she puts the tallies for
that bunch into a computer spreadsheet.
There are other issues in a recount and these include what to do with
poorly-marked ballots and what to do if the callers disagree with what the
ballot actually says. This is the normal thing. But, at the end of the
day, every ballot is fully examined multiple times and a consistent
discernment of what the ballot says is made and documented on the tally
cover sheet for each mini-pile.
Now, for FPTP, this happens to the entire pile once. For Condorcet, it
would have to happen 6 times to the pile if there were 4 candidates. So,
instead of taking 1 hour, it might take 6. But, because of summability, we
can get bigger crews for a larger town or larger voting precinct (say, with
1000 or 2000 voters, that's the biggest we get in Vermont for a single
voting precinct) and work, separately and simultaneously, on different
portions of the big pile. Because the end result will be separate summable
tallies for bunches of 50 ballots, each numbered and clipped, so if there's
a real legal fight, the District Judge will know which mini-pile and which
funky ballot he/she has to look at to judge the ballot's value. At the end
of the day, each ballot is fully adjudicated and consistent repeatable
tallies are published. Everyone knows what those numbers are, media,
competing campaigns, and of course, the office of the Secretary of State
who will declare who the winner is.
Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic on this one issue.
The recount process is nearly identical to what we do with FPTP now. It
would just have to be expanded to be making the very same decision for each
ballot for the multiple pairings of candidates. In a single pass you do
each pairing for the whole pile, one pairing for that pass. That's
increased quantity, not increased complexity.
Another thing is, if the recount is concerned about only two candidates,
like only the two leading candidates are disputing who won and the other
minor candidates are not disputing their loss, then the recount of a
Condorcet election only need to process the pass involving those two
candidates. Then it's no more work than a recount would be for FPTP.
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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