Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine
ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.com RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022), election
law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate) Erik Maskin
propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in how ranked choice
winners are currently determined. They call the resulting election method a
"total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially proposing
replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foley https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/edward-b-foley/
and Eric S. Maskin
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives was
heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA favorite Sarah
Palin, a personification of polarization, could not attract enough
second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick Begich’s supporters to
win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused the
defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat Mary
Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s
preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates in
order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than naming just
that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other ranked-choice systems now
in use, from Maine to San Francisco — is the rule for eliminating
candidates when no one gets a majority of first-place votes. By tweaking
this rule, Alaska’s system would become more palatable to Republicans and
Democrats alike, and more likely to be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes. That
seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome — and why
Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority of voters
would have favored Begich had the race come down to a head-to-head matchup
against either Peltola (52 percent to 48 percent) or Palin (61 percent to
39 percent). He lost only because it was a three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with the
fewest total votes, rather than the fewest first-place votes, the
ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as Begich who
defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a system
would be determined by the number of other candidates he or she is ranked
above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on a ballot in an
election involving three candidates, then this first-choice candidate is
ranked above two other candidates and gets two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the candidate
is favored over only one other candidate and would receive only one vote
from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not favored
over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot — two,
one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the ballots
yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which each of
Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then calculate
each candidate’s total votes (there were only three candidates in the House
special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their first choice
ahead of two other candidates.
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich 53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola 75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin 58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT Election
Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author calculations
https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/RcvDetailedReport.pdf
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first
candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and Peltola.
Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would have been elected.
Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the majority more accurately than
Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would help
ameliorate the “candidate quality
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/mcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777”
problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s base would be
eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more broadly popular
Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against
losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are unacceptable to
a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style ranked-choice voting
might keep in contention a left-wing candidate whose first-place votes
reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but Total Runoff Voting would
promote Democratic candidates whose wide appeal makes them more competitive
overall.
To me that description sounds like Borda.
--pH
On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier roblan@gmail.com wrote:
Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.commailto:RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.commailto:election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022), election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate) Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foleyhttps://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpeople%2Fedward-b-foley%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901705981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CWW9yLx9%2BiXydFJ0Z3t40zdmCxJOdDSIM9DJMmxRBjc%3D&reserved=0 and Eric S. Maskin
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick Begich’s supporters to win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco — is the rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would become more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more likely to be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes. That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome — and why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority of voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48 percent) or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it was a three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with the fewest total votes, rather than the fewest first-place votes, the ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as Begich who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or she is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on a ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive only one vote from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot — two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which each of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three candidates in the House special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their first choice ahead of two other candidates.
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich 53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola 75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin 58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author calculations https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elections.alaska.gov%2Fresults%2F22SSPG%2FRcvDetailedReport.pdf&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6dJZaB3lo5EwSDENGHGYX4Uugjg3tUL8EWl3moGfUMM%3D&reserved=0
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would have been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the majority more accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would help ameliorate the “candidate qualityhttps://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0” problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s base would be eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more broadly popular Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide appeal makes them more competitive overall.
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
On 07.11.2022 10:40, Hahn, Paul wrote:
To me that description sounds like Borda.
Sounds like Baldwin to me: at each step eliminate the Borda loser.
It fails monotonicity and clone independence. I think I would prefer
Benham which at least gets burial resistance for its monotonicity
failure :-)
Or Ranked Pairs etc.
Incidentally, about the subject: I wonder if there's something about
mailing lists that modern antispam systems don't take into account,
because t-online also blacklisted the EM list some time ago. First I
stopped receiving copies of my own posts and then I couldn't post at
all. (Fortunately they reversed the blacklisting once I made them aware
of it.)
-km
I'm not completely sure, but I think the method they are describing is
Baldwin
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
If I understand them correctly, the main advantage they see is the
purely practical one that it can be sold as a modification of IRV rather
than something different from IRV.
--Bob Richard
------ Original Message ------
From: "Hahn, Paul" manynote@wustl.edu
To: "election-methods@lists.electorama.com"
election-methods@lists.electorama.com
Sent: 11/7/2022 1:40:36 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted
To me that description sounds like Borda.
--pH
On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier roblan@gmail.com wrote:
Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine
ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.com mailto:RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022),
election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate)
Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in
how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the
resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially
proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foley
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpeople%2Fedward-b-foley%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901705981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CWW9yLx9%2BiXydFJ0Z3t40zdmCxJOdDSIM9DJMmxRBjc%3D&reserved=0
andEric S. Maskin
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives
was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA
favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not
attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick
Begich’s supporters to win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused
the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat
Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s
preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small
change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates
in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than
naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other
ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco —is the
rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of
first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would become
more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more likely to
be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes.
That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome — and
why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority of
voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a
head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48 percent)
or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it was a
three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with
the fewest total votes, rather than the fewest first-place votes, the
ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as Begich
who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a
system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or she
is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on a
ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this
first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets
two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the
candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive
only one vote from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not
favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot —
two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the
ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which each
of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then
calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three
candidates in the House special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their first
choice ahead of two other candidates.
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT
Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author
calculations
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elections.alaska.gov%2Fresults%2F22SSPG%2FRcvDetailedReport.pdf&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6dJZaB3lo5EwSDENGHGYX4Uugjg3tUL8EWl3moGfUMM%3D&reserved=0
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first
candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and
Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would have
been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the majority more
accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would
help ameliorate the “candidate quality
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0”
problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell (R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s
base would be eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more
broadly popular Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against
losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are
unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style
ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate
whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but
Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide
appeal makes them more competitive overall.
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
IRV can be modified easily, without switching to an entirely different
method, which is what the article authors suggest.
A much simpler -- and fairer -- change to IRV is to eliminate a pairwise
losing candidate during the top-three round, even if a different
candidate has the fewest "transferred" votes.
Sarah Palin was the pairwise losing candidate (in the top-three round)
in the recent special Alaska election. Eliminating her instead of
Begich (who had the fewest transferred votes) would have yielded a
"head-to-head matchup" between Peltola and Begich. Then the
majority-supported Begich would have won.
This improvement to IRV, along with counting multiple marks in the same
"choice" column, is the RCIPE -- Ranked Choice Including Pairwise
Elimination -- method:
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Ranked_Choice_Including_Pairwise_Elimination
As a clarification, the RCIPE method eliminates pairwise losing
candidates when they occur, but the simpler version described above only
looks at the top-three round.
If someone wants to argue that pairwise elimination should also be used
during the top-four round, or invoked based on some other criteria, that
works too.
The advantage of limiting the pairwise elimination to the final rounds
is faster vote counting on election night. That's because the sequence
of elimination for minor can't-win candidates does not need to be
calculated on election night. (That exact sequence can be calculated
later.)
My point is that although I and others here have a strong dislike of
IRV, the idea of eliminating candidates one by one is widely understood,
and it's easy to understand for typical voters, so it's worth
considering simple improvements to IRV for use in real elections.
Later, when voters have experience using ranked choice ballots, and when
more voters understand some of the details we discuss in this forum,
elections can switch to other, better counting methods.
Richard Fobes
On 11/7/2022 6:06 AM, Bob Richard (lists) wrote:
I'm not completely sure, but I think the method they are describing is
Baldwin
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
If I understand them correctly, the main advantage they see is the
purely practical one that it can be sold as a modification of IRV rather
than something different from IRV.
--Bob Richard
------ Original Message ------
From: "Hahn, Paul" <manynote@wustl.edu mailto:manynote@wustl.edu>
To: "election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com"
<election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com>
Sent: 11/7/2022 1:40:36 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted
To me that description sounds like Borda.
--pH
On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier <roblan@gmail.com
mailto:roblan@gmail.com> wrote:
Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine
ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.com mailto:RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022),
election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate)
Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in
how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the
resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially
proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foley
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpeople%2Fedward-b-foley%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901705981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CWW9yLx9%2BiXydFJ0Z3t40zdmCxJOdDSIM9DJMmxRBjc%3D&reserved=0andEric S. Maskin
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/ https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives
was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA
favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not
attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick
Begich’s supporters to win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused
the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat
Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s
preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates
in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than
naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other
ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco —**is
the rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of
first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would
become more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more
likely to be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes.
That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome —
and why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority
of voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a
head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48
percent) or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it
was a three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with
the fewest /total/ votes, rather than the fewest /first-place/ votes,
the ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as
Begich who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a
system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or
she is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on
a ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this
first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets
two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the
candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive
only one vote from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not
favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot
— two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the
ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which
each of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then
calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three
candidates in the House special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
*First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their
first choice ahead of two other candidates.*
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich 53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola 75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin 58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT
Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author
calculations
<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elections.alaska.gov%2Fresults%2F22SSPG%2FRcvDetailedReport.pdf&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6dJZaB3lo5EwSDENGHGYX4Uugjg3tUL8EWl3moGfUMM%3D&reserved=0>
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first
candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and
Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would
have been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the
majority more accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would
help ameliorate the “candidate quality
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0” problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s base would be eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more broadly popular Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against
losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are
unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style
ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate
whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but
Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide
appeal makes them more competitive overall.
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
https://electorama.com/em for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
Since it seems we must proceed by one-at-a-time elimination, and a covered
winner is an embarrassment, why not proceed with normal IRV elimination
until all but one of the remaining candidates are covered?
In other words, elect the last standing uncovered candidate.
The advantage over Benham is avoiding mention of Condorcet, a loaded word
with lots of bias against it in the RCV/IRV community.
-Forest
On Mon, Nov 7, 2022, 9:23 AM Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
IRV can be modified easily, without switching to an entirely different
method, which is what the article authors suggest.
A much simpler -- and fairer -- change to IRV is to eliminate a pairwise
losing candidate during the top-three round, even if a different
candidate has the fewest "transferred" votes.
Sarah Palin was the pairwise losing candidate (in the top-three round)
in the recent special Alaska election. Eliminating her instead of
Begich (who had the fewest transferred votes) would have yielded a
"head-to-head matchup" between Peltola and Begich. Then the
majority-supported Begich would have won.
This improvement to IRV, along with counting multiple marks in the same
"choice" column, is the RCIPE -- Ranked Choice Including Pairwise
Elimination -- method:
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Ranked_Choice_Including_Pairwise_Elimination
As a clarification, the RCIPE method eliminates pairwise losing
candidates when they occur, but the simpler version described above only
looks at the top-three round.
If someone wants to argue that pairwise elimination should also be used
during the top-four round, or invoked based on some other criteria, that
works too.
The advantage of limiting the pairwise elimination to the final rounds
is faster vote counting on election night. That's because the sequence
of elimination for minor can't-win candidates does not need to be
calculated on election night. (That exact sequence can be calculated
later.)
My point is that although I and others here have a strong dislike of
IRV, the idea of eliminating candidates one by one is widely understood,
and it's easy to understand for typical voters, so it's worth
considering simple improvements to IRV for use in real elections.
Later, when voters have experience using ranked choice ballots, and when
more voters understand some of the details we discuss in this forum,
elections can switch to other, better counting methods.
Richard Fobes
On 11/7/2022 6:06 AM, Bob Richard (lists) wrote:
I'm not completely sure, but I think the method they are describing is
Baldwin
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
If I understand them correctly, the main advantage they see is the
purely practical one that it can be sold as a modification of IRV rather
than something different from IRV.
--Bob Richard
------ Original Message ------
From: "Hahn, Paul" <manynote@wustl.edu mailto:manynote@wustl.edu>
To: "election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com"
<election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com>
Sent: 11/7/2022 1:40:36 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted
To me that description sounds like Borda.
--pH
On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier <roblan@gmail.com
mailto:roblan@gmail.com> wrote:
Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine
ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.com mailto:RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022),
election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate)
Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in
how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the
resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially
proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foley
<
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/
<
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives
was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA
favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not
attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick
Begich’s supporters to win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused
the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat
Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s
preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small
change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates
in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than
naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other
ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco —**is
the rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of
first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would
become more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more
likely to be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes.
That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome —
and why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority
of voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a
head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48
percent) or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it
was a three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with
the fewest /total/ votes, rather than the fewest /first-place/ votes,
the ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as
Begich who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a
system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or
she is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on
a ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this
first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets
two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the
candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive
only one vote from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not
favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot
— two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the
ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which
each of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then
calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three
candidates in the House special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
*First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their
first choice ahead of two other candidates.*
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich 53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola 75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin 58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT
Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author
calculations
<
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first
candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and
Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would
have been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the
majority more accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would
help ameliorate the “candidate quality
<
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0>”
problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s base would be
eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more broadly popular
Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against
losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are
unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style
ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate
whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but
Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide
appeal makes them more competitive overall.
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
https://electorama.com/em for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
When Benjamin Franklin was asked what system of government decided, he replied:
It's a democracy -- if you can keep it.
As HG Wells said, in 1920, (to effect) they were handicapped with the inadequacy of voting methods. In particular, they suffered a hang-over from the monarchic principle, from top to bottom of society.
Lani Guinier was derided and dismissed as a "quota queen." Yet her view on the tyranny of the majority comes from John Stuart Mill MP, champion of womens legal equality and "Mr Hare's system" of Proportional Representation as Personal Representation. (I edited an e-book about it.)
The most immediate amelioration of a bad situation, tho not a good solution, would be to end staggered Senate elections and replace them with 2-member proportional representation with a single transferable vote. STV can be improved, I know -- that is a study of mine -- but, in general, at large STV, like Cambridge city, is the most democratic available remedy -- The proof of the pudding is in the eating -- A large multi-member majority, a big proportion, over 90% of mostly first preferences elected, from a much better choice of candidates, than any miserable little monarchy election.
Ranked choices mean precisely that they are not of equal importance, and so cannot be counted as such. This was first appreciated by Pierre-Simon Laplace, over 200 years ago.
1880 Gregory method STV weighting surplus transfers, in arithmetic proportion is more accurate, according to standard statistical procedure, than Borda method weighting the count in arithmetic progression.
Regards,
Richard Lung.
On 7 Nov 2022, at 6:30 pm, Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com wrote:
Since it seems we must proceed by one-at-a-time elimination, and a covered winner is an embarrassment, why not proceed with normal IRV elimination until all but one of the remaining candidates are covered?
In other words, elect the last standing uncovered candidate.
The advantage over Benham is avoiding mention of Condorcet, a loaded word with lots of bias against it in the RCV/IRV community.
-Forest
On Mon, Nov 7, 2022, 9:23 AM Richard, the VoteFair guy electionmethods@votefair.org wrote:
IRV can be modified easily, without switching to an entirely different
method, which is what the article authors suggest.
A much simpler -- and fairer -- change to IRV is to eliminate a pairwise
losing candidate during the top-three round, even if a different
candidate has the fewest "transferred" votes.
Sarah Palin was the pairwise losing candidate (in the top-three round)
in the recent special Alaska election. Eliminating her instead of
Begich (who had the fewest transferred votes) would have yielded a
"head-to-head matchup" between Peltola and Begich. Then the
majority-supported Begich would have won.
This improvement to IRV, along with counting multiple marks in the same
"choice" column, is the RCIPE -- Ranked Choice Including Pairwise
Elimination -- method:
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Ranked_Choice_Including_Pairwise_Elimination
As a clarification, the RCIPE method eliminates pairwise losing
candidates when they occur, but the simpler version described above only
looks at the top-three round.
If someone wants to argue that pairwise elimination should also be used
during the top-four round, or invoked based on some other criteria, that
works too.
The advantage of limiting the pairwise elimination to the final rounds
is faster vote counting on election night. That's because the sequence
of elimination for minor can't-win candidates does not need to be
calculated on election night. (That exact sequence can be calculated
later.)
My point is that although I and others here have a strong dislike of
IRV, the idea of eliminating candidates one by one is widely understood,
and it's easy to understand for typical voters, so it's worth
considering simple improvements to IRV for use in real elections.
Later, when voters have experience using ranked choice ballots, and when
more voters understand some of the details we discuss in this forum,
elections can switch to other, better counting methods.
Richard Fobes
On 11/7/2022 6:06 AM, Bob Richard (lists) wrote:
I'm not completely sure, but I think the method they are describing is
Baldwin
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
If I understand them correctly, the main advantage they see is the
purely practical one that it can be sold as a modification of IRV rather
than something different from IRV.
--Bob Richard
------ Original Message ------
From: "Hahn, Paul" <manynote@wustl.edu mailto:manynote@wustl.edu>
To: "election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com"
<election-methods@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods@lists.electorama.com>
Sent: 11/7/2022 1:40:36 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted
To me that description sounds like Borda.
--pH
On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier <roblan@gmail.com
mailto:roblan@gmail.com> wrote:
Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine
ranked-choice winners
Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
From: Ralph Suter RLSuter@aol.com mailto:RLSuter@aol.com
To: election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
mailto:election-methods-request@lists.electorama.com
In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022),
election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate)
Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in
how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the
resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially
proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
-Ralph Suter
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
By Edward B. Foley
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpeople%2Fedward-b-foley%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901705981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CWW9yLx9%2BiXydFJ0Z3t40zdmCxJOdDSIM9DJMmxRBjc%3D&reserved=0andEric S. Maskin
November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/ https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0
Excerpt:
Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives
was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA
favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not
attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick
Begich’s supporters to win.
That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused
the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat
Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s
preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small change.
The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates
in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than
naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other
ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco —**is
the rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of
first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would
become more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more
likely to be adopted across the country.
Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes.
That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome —
and why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority
of voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a
head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48
percent) or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it
was a three-way race.
Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with
the fewest /total/ votes, rather than the fewest /first-place/ votes,
the ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as
Begich who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a
system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or
she is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on
a ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this
first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets
two votes from this ballot.
When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the
candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive
only one vote from that ballot.
A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not
favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot
— two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the
ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which
each of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then
calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three
candidates in the House special election):
Alaska House results using total vote runoff
*First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their
first choice ahead of two other candidates.*
Column 1: Candidate
Column 2: first-place votes
Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
Column 4: second-place votes
Column 5: Overall Total
Begich 53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
Peltola 75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
Palin 58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT
Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author
calculations
<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elections.alaska.gov%2Fresults%2F22SSPG%2FRcvDetailedReport.pdf&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6dJZaB3lo5EwSDENGHGYX4Uugjg3tUL8EWl3moGfUMM%3D&reserved=0>
Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first
candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and
Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would
have been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the
majority more accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system does.
Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would
help ameliorate the “candidate quality
https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0” problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s base would be eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more broadly popular Republican to compete against a Democrat.
Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against
losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are
unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style
ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate
whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but
Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide
appeal makes them more competitive overall.
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Forest, what do you mean by "covered"? Is there a Wikipedia or
Electowiki article (or section of an article) that explains it? Or is
there a dictionary reference you can point to?
Yes, you've used the words "covered" and "uncovered" many times but I
don't recall ever seeing a clear explanation of what you mean. I
presume it involves pairwise counts, but that's as far as I can guess.
Richard Fobes
On 11/7/2022 10:30 AM, Forest Simmons wrote:
Since it seems we must proceed by one-at-a-time elimination, and a
covered winner is an embarrassment, why not proceed with normal IRV
elimination until all but one of the remaining candidates are covered?
In other words, elect the last standing uncovered candidate.
The advantage over Benham is avoiding mention of Condorcet, a loaded
word with lots of bias against it in the RCV/IRV community.
-Forest
On 08.11.2022 18:02, Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:
Forest, what do you mean by "covered"? Is there a Wikipedia or
Electowiki article (or section of an article) that explains it? Or is
there a dictionary reference you can point to?
Yes, you've used the words "covered" and "uncovered" many times but I
don't recall ever seeing a clear explanation of what you mean. I
presume it involves pairwise counts, but that's as far as I can guess.
The short answer is: A covers B if A pairwise beats everybody B pairwise
beats and then some.
An uncovered candidate is someone who is not covered by anyone else.
This definition works when there are no pairwise ties. Things get
trickier with pairwise ties, as I found out when generalizing Friendly
Cover.
-km
In this context the most relevant question is what do we mean by
"uncovered", since that's the word used in the method definition ...
Repeatedly eliminate the (remaining) candidate with fewest votes until
there remains only one uncovered candidate to elect.
No need to know what covering means, although you can figure it out
indirectly from the definition of "uncovered:"
A candidate is uncovered iff it has a beatpath of only two steps to each
candidate (if any) that beats it.
Any candidate X who complains that they should have won because they beat
the winner W pairwise will get this truthful and obviously relevant
rejoinder:
When you were eliminated, you had fewer transferred votes than I.
I fact, I beat every candidate pairwise that was not already eliminated
(like you) on the basis of two few (transferred) votes.
It is very easy to discern if some candidate X is uncovered:
Just check each candidate Y that beats it (X) to see if it has a two step
beatpath via some Z, back to Y:
X beats Z beats Y
Only Smith candidates can be uncovered because only Smith candidates have
beatpaths back to the candidates that beat them. So the candidates you have
to check are the Smith candidates ... at most three, and rarely more than
one, in a public election.
If you want, you can run IRV all the way through ... then if the IRV winner
is uncovered, you are done. If not, back up until you cone to an uncovered
candidate ... that's your winner!
It's just a matter of doing regular IRV, and backing up (if necessary)
until you get to an uncovered candidate.
Forest
On Tue, Nov 8, 2022, 11:18 AM Kristofer Munsterhjelm km_elmet@t-online.de
wrote:
On 08.11.2022 18:02, Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:
Forest, what do you mean by "covered"? Is there a Wikipedia or
Electowiki article (or section of an article) that explains it? Or is
there a dictionary reference you can point to?
Yes, you've used the words "covered" and "uncovered" many times but I
don't recall ever seeing a clear explanation of what you mean. I
presume it involves pairwise counts, but that's as far as I can guess.
The short answer is: A covers B if A pairwise beats everybody B pairwise
beats and then some.
An uncovered candidate is someone who is not covered by anyone else.
This definition works when there are no pairwise ties. Things get
trickier with pairwise ties, as I found out when generalizing Friendly
Cover.
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