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Statistical pairwise method

KM
Kristofer Munsterhjelm
Mon, Feb 20, 2017 4:13 PM

A few days ago, I happened upon this page:

http://www.anishathalye.com/2015/03/07/designing-a-better-judging-system/

which seems to describe a pairwise method that's based on maximizing the
MLE of a model where a voter samples some preference for X and for Y on
two Gaussians (with unknown means) and votes X>Y if his sample for X is
greater than his sample for Y.

Is this Condorcet? It might well be (because of the Condorcet jury
theorem). In any case, it's an interesting approach, and reminds me of
Peter Zbornik asking some years ago if it'd be possible to model voter
decisions as uncertain on some statistical basis and take that into account.

A few days ago, I happened upon this page: http://www.anishathalye.com/2015/03/07/designing-a-better-judging-system/ which seems to describe a pairwise method that's based on maximizing the MLE of a model where a voter samples some preference for X and for Y on two Gaussians (with unknown means) and votes X>Y if his sample for X is greater than his sample for Y. Is this Condorcet? It might well be (because of the Condorcet jury theorem). In any case, it's an interesting approach, and reminds me of Peter Zbornik asking some years ago if it'd be possible to model voter decisions as uncertain on some statistical basis and take that into account.
RL
Richard Lung
Tue, Feb 21, 2017 6:43 PM

The system, Binomial STV, which Kristofer once asked me to show how it
works, with his example, is a statistical count, as the name, binomial
implies.
Binomial Transferable Voting (BTV) is a generalisation from conventional
STV, which is zero order BTV, which I support, because it is essentially
the right method, unlike the legion of other official systems.
BTV is not a Condorcet pairing system.

from Richard Lung.

On 20/02/2017 16:13, Kristofer Munsterhjelm wrote:

A few days ago, I happened upon this page:

http://www.anishathalye.com/2015/03/07/designing-a-better-judging-system/

which seems to describe a pairwise method that's based on maximizing the
MLE of a model where a voter samples some preference for X and for Y on
two Gaussians (with unknown means) and votes X>Y if his sample for X is
greater than his sample for Y.

Is this Condorcet? It might well be (because of the Condorcet jury
theorem). In any case, it's an interesting approach, and reminds me of
Peter Zbornik asking some years ago if it'd be possible to model voter
decisions as uncertain on some statistical basis and take that into account.

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--
Richard Lung.
http://www.voting.ukscientists.com
Democracy Science series 3 free e-books in pdf:
https://plus.google.com/106191200795605365085
E-books in epub format:
https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/democracyscience

The system, Binomial STV, which Kristofer once asked me to show how it works, with his example, is a statistical count, as the name, binomial implies. Binomial Transferable Voting (BTV) is a generalisation from conventional STV, which is zero order BTV, which I support, because it is essentially the right method, unlike the legion of other official systems. BTV is not a Condorcet pairing system. from Richard Lung. On 20/02/2017 16:13, Kristofer Munsterhjelm wrote: > A few days ago, I happened upon this page: > > http://www.anishathalye.com/2015/03/07/designing-a-better-judging-system/ > > which seems to describe a pairwise method that's based on maximizing the > MLE of a model where a voter samples some preference for X and for Y on > two Gaussians (with unknown means) and votes X>Y if his sample for X is > greater than his sample for Y. > > Is this Condorcet? It might well be (because of the Condorcet jury > theorem). In any case, it's an interesting approach, and reminds me of > Peter Zbornik asking some years ago if it'd be possible to model voter > decisions as uncertain on some statistical basis and take that into account. > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info > -- Richard Lung. http://www.voting.ukscientists.com Democracy Science series 3 free e-books in pdf: https://plus.google.com/106191200795605365085 E-books in epub format: https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/democracyscience