For reasons I’ve mentioned, the CW is the most likely Topcount winner. The CW faction is the most likely to be the largest. Sincere rankings of the 3 factions: CW, or CW>BF, or CW>Bus Bus> CW BF> CW 3 burial scenarios, each with the 3 factions’ rankings: 1. CW Bus>CW BF>Bus (burying) 2. CW>BF Bus>CW BF>Bus 3. CW>Bus Bus>CW BF>Bus The BF & Bus factions, in the example are equal in size. The CW faction is larger. In an actual election, it isn’t known which of {Bus, BF} is bigger than the other, & both possibilities are equiprobable. In #1, Bus wins because the listed-methods meet Minimal-Defense. …but you can verify it, just as you can verify the results in the other 2 scenarios. Scenario #2: CW’s larger size gives factions give BF & bus the equally largest wv against them. The largest wv against CW is less. CW wins. Scenario #3: CW’s larger size gives BF two instances of the largest defeat. CW has an ordinary wv in its defeat, via the 2 smaller factions. Because CW & Bus factions both rank Bus over BF, & only the BF faction ranks BF over Bus, Bus pairbeats BF, with the maximal wv. Bus wins by pairbeating CW & BF. If CW is the largest faction (it’s the most likely to be the largest) & nothing else about the burial-result is known, then BF, by the most likely assumption, loses in all 3 scenarios, while Bus wins in the 3rd scenario. The method has autodeterence.