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Technical discussion of election methods

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A more typical example. How the various methods do.

MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sat, Feb 3, 2024 9:18 PM

There are reasons why the CW is the most likely candidate to have the
highest Topcounts:

  1. The highest candidate in a ranking is ranked over more candidates.

  1. In an unskewed normal-distribution, max coincides with median.  Yes,
    median-crowding can spoil that, but our elections don’t have
    median-crowding, because the crowding is at the phony center between Dem &
    Repub.  …though Bernie is probably an instance of Republocrat strategic
    median-crowding.

  1. Polls confirm it.

That’s why I propose Fav-Defeater as now my favorite autodeterrent method:

Elect the highest Topcount (or Midcount) candidate who pairbeats the
highest Topcount candidate.

Offensive strategy can’t affect anyone’s Topcount.

Anyway, Chris’ example:

46: A (the CW)

44: B>C  (burying A)

10: C (the Bus)

…is quite extreme, with the CW nearly being a majority-CW. I wanted
something more typical.

So I suggest the following example as typical.

CW is the Topcount-winner, because, as I mentioned, the CW is the most
likely Topcount-winner.

The BF faction is larger than the Bus faction, because I didn’t want to
favor Bus.

Given those requirements, I wanted the factions as nearly equal in size as
possible, because, that seems the center about which they’ll vary.

Here’s my example:

35: CW>BF

33: BF>Bus

32: Bus>CW

With only one exception, all of the intended autodeterrent methods that
I’ve proposed here, including CTE(Coombs(whole)), elect BF.  i.e. they fail
autodeterrence in this very typical example.

Failing in that example seems to definitely say something
evaluation-meaningful.

But Fav-Defeater elects Bus, & thus succeeds in this example…directly from
its definition…which was the intent of that definition.

/…

A few methods’ choices in that example:

DAC & DSC: CW

Margins-Sorted Topcount:  CW

Fav-Defeater: Bus

MinMax(wv), Schulze, & MAM (RP(wv)): Bus


Fav-Defeater, MinMax(wv), Schulze,  MAM also elect Bus in Chris’ example.

So far then, considering the typicalness of my example, & how different
Chris’ example is, Fav-Defeater, MinMax(wv), Schulze & MAM seem the best &
most versatile ranked-methods..


I don’t understand the motivation & justification of the double-sorting
methods such as Margins-Sorted Topcount. Neither would the would the
public, & it’s something essential for public-acceptance.


If we dare to be optimistic, we can hope that the public will use the good
ranking methods well, & in that case the best Condorcet methods, & even
Hare, would be fine.  But the voting behavior demonstrated by the many,
many people completely wedded to the protection of their precious
lesser-evil isn’t encouraging at all.

I used to say that we need Condorcet, to reassure the lesser-evil voters.
But it likely won’t reassure them enough. I told why, even with the best
Condorcet methods, I’d rank the Acceptables in order of winnability instead
of merit, because I regard candidate-merit as dichotomous.  …Then why
wouldn’t our lesser-evil progressives, for the same reason, do the same, &
rank the Democrats over the progressives, topvoting the Dems with the most
media-promotion.

So I don’t have confidence in the lesser-evil progressives with a
ranked-method.

The pure Cardinal methods, Approval & Score, are the most foolproof
methods. They never give any possible incentive to not topvote Favorite.  …or
any incentive to vote anyone over Favorite.

They’re the public political voting-systems that I want for our timid
lesser-evil electorate.

The ranked-methods are a morass.

There are reasons why the CW is the most likely candidate to have the highest Topcounts: … 1. The highest candidate in a ranking is ranked over more candidates. … 2. In an unskewed normal-distribution, max coincides with median. Yes, median-crowding can spoil that, but our elections don’t have median-crowding, because the crowding is at the phony center between Dem & Repub. …though Bernie is probably an instance of Republocrat strategic median-crowding. … 3. Polls confirm it. … That’s why I propose Fav-Defeater as now my favorite autodeterrent method: … Elect the highest Topcount (or Midcount) candidate who pairbeats the highest Topcount candidate. … Offensive strategy can’t affect anyone’s Topcount. … Anyway, Chris’ example: … 46: A (the CW) … 44: B>C (burying A) … 10: C (the Bus) … …is quite extreme, with the CW nearly being a majority-CW. I wanted something more typical. … So I suggest the following example as typical. … CW is the Topcount-winner, because, as I mentioned, the CW is the most likely Topcount-winner. … The BF faction is larger than the Bus faction, because I didn’t want to favor Bus. … Given those requirements, I wanted the factions as nearly equal in size as possible, because, that seems the center about which they’ll vary. … Here’s my example: … 35: CW>BF … 33: BF>Bus … 32: Bus>CW … With only one exception, all of the intended autodeterrent methods that I’ve proposed here, including CTE(Coombs(whole)), elect BF. i.e. they fail autodeterrence in this very typical example. … Failing in that example seems to definitely say something evaluation-meaningful. … But Fav-Defeater elects Bus, & thus succeeds in this example…directly from its definition…which was the intent of that definition. /… A few methods’ choices in that example: … DAC & DSC: CW … Margins-Sorted Topcount: CW … Fav-Defeater: Bus … MinMax(wv), Schulze, & MAM (RP(wv)): Bus ---- Fav-Defeater, MinMax(wv), Schulze, MAM also elect Bus in Chris’ example. … So far then, considering the typicalness of my example, & how different Chris’ example is, Fav-Defeater, MinMax(wv), Schulze & MAM seem the best & most versatile ranked-methods.. ----- I don’t understand the motivation & justification of the double-sorting methods such as Margins-Sorted Topcount. Neither would the would the public, & it’s something essential for public-acceptance. ----- If we dare to be optimistic, we can hope that the public will use the good ranking methods well, & in that case the best Condorcet methods, & even Hare, would be fine. But the voting behavior demonstrated by the many, many people completely wedded to the protection of their precious lesser-evil isn’t encouraging at all. … I used to say that we need Condorcet, to reassure the lesser-evil voters. But it likely won’t reassure them enough. I told why, even with the best Condorcet methods, I’d rank the Acceptables in order of winnability instead of merit, because I regard candidate-merit as dichotomous. …Then why wouldn’t our lesser-evil progressives, for the same reason, do the same, & rank the Democrats over the progressives, topvoting the Dems with the most media-promotion. … So I don’t have confidence in the lesser-evil progressives with a ranked-method. … The pure Cardinal methods, Approval & Score, are the most foolproof methods. They never give any possible incentive to not topvote Favorite. …or any incentive to vote anyone over Favorite. … They’re the public political voting-systems that I want for our timid lesser-evil electorate. … The ranked-methods are a morass.