Do you have evidence of this?
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.
Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
YES
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.
If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.
Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
VoteFair Guy:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
That’s a yes or no question.
Yes or no?
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)
from
your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you
say
doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that
people
will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.
The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>
wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR
voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method
forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to
approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon
secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state
legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.
Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also
importantly it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the
future. Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the
single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a
conversation on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the
upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big
source of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene
voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene
voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet
helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
<
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,
are
overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
without
understanding they are basically just supplying money to the
huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots
are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR
counting, when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff
round. Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two
runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method
such as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority
voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,
is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other
claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR
voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of
the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting
wasted lots
of words talking about issues that are not as important as the
above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed
strongly, and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is
conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra influence by
exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers
to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting
against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about
$2,000 I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement
from me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my
name as
being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are
needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later
worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention of
"overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by
the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being
exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first
statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using
software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot
can be
paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,
and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the
other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified election software
must not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
"overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls
this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,
STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of
instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article
where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it
does not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are
correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a
strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not
as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,
election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will
undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being
"user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation
will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark
will be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR
ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the
left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard
ratings as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a
voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they
prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is
allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the
least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,
and the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some
voters to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"
will
disappear when better election software becomes available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the
failures in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like
STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their
enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way
that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the
future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle
issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated
when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would
lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
The result would be an election method that overcomes the
criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the
addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from
what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that
the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is
an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,
the
majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it
would hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we
had to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The
referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the
STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know
lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In
fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's,
long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
"ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.
Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene
voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of
Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November
referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their
climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a
very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the
north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,
which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the
snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will
switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of further
delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon
after
we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon
state
representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this
huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy will
"uncrazify" our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method
experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding
to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff
voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping
of the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him
promoting that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and
heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state
legislature. If
you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open
to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was
reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al
Mobley as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would
have been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system
that, if
it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,
Dave, in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need
for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the
candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as
we take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has
wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
<https://electorama.com/em> for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
On 06/04/2024 6:59 PM EDT Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com wrote:
Robert is continuing to repeat his usual bigoted dogma schpiel with, as always, no answer to objections.
It's not always. And I have a right to select. I got finite energy.
That’s what makes it bigoted dogma instead of discussion.
Oh dear. What class or group have I been targeting?
(Oh, T**** assholes. Being an election poll worker and previously a very low-level elected "Inspector of Election", I ain't neutral about T**** trying to steal an election, acting like rules don't apply to him, inciting insurrection and chaos and simply lying about everything, including how the elections had been conducted. If that makes me a bigot, so be it. I think T**** has harmed the nation far more than Julius and Ethel Rosenberg did and deserves exactly the same punishment they got. Hillary didn't even scratch the surface with her "deplorables" comment. These Ters are deplorable bigoted assholes that are beyond reason. They are just harmful. Instead of migrants, we should be deporting Ters. We can't reason with them. They're brain-dead. The only thing we can do is defeat them.)
That’s a violation of this mailing-list’s specified rules-of-conduct.
I thought you were plonking me.
Maybe those rules should be attached to the top of each thread. …& enforced.
BTW, CES recommends Approval, & rarely if ever mentions Score.
Clay S.
Equal Vote coalition mentions Condorcet (approvingly). But they're STAR advocacy.
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
.
.
.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman michael.garman@rankthevote.us
wrote:
Do you have evidence of this?
I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.
Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would
enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
YES
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.
If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.
Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
VoteFair Guy:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would
enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
That’s a yes or no question.
Yes or no?
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)
from
your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you
say
doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that
people
will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.
The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>
wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR
voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method
forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to
approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon
secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state
legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on
their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.
Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also
importantly it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the
future. Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the
single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because
election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a
conversation on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the
upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked
choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big
source of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene
voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene
voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet
helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
<
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,
are
overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
without
understanding they are basically just supplying money to the
huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice
ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR
counting, when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff
round. Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two
runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least
66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method
such as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority
voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,
is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other
claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR
voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty
of the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting
wasted lots
of words talking about issues that are not as important as the
above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed
strongly, and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is
conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra influence by
exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2
and 3.
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and
barriers to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting
against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about
$2,000 I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement
from me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my
name as
being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will
agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded
the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are
needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the
same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later
worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention of
"overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by
the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being
exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first
statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using
software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot
can be
paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,
and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the
other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified election software
must not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
"overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls
this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,
STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of
instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly
article where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it
does not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are
correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get
to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a
strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not
as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,
election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will
undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being
"user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation
will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark
will be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR
ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the
left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard
ratings as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a
voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they
prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is
allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always
the least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,
and the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in
Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots
are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some
voters to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"
will
disappear when better election software becomes available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the
failures in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like
STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their
enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way
that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the
future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle
issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round
of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added
words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated
when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would
lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
The result would be an election method that overcomes the
criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the
addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from
what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on your belief
that the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is
an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,
the
majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it
would hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we
had to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The
referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the
STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know
lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better
election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)
In fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's,
long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
"ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.
Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene
voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of
Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November
referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their
climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a
very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at
the north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,
which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which
the snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will
switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of further
delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for
Oregon after
we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon
state
representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this
huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy will
"uncrazify" our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist
in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.
You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method
experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding
to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff
voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping
of the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him
promoting that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and
heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state
legislature. If
you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open
to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was
reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al
Mobley as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would
have been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system
that, if
it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,
Dave, in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need
for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the
candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as
we take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has
wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
<https://electorama.com/em> for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for
list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
Oh that’s a shame. Don’t make claims you can’t back up then :D
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 9:23 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman michael.garman@rankthevote.us
wrote:
Do you have evidence of this?
I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.
Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would
enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
YES
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.
If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.
Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
VoteFair Guy:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would
enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
That’s a yes or no question.
Yes or no?
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)
from
your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of
a
vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that
you say
doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that
people
will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.
The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what
it
would be if were something different from what it is.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>
wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to
STAR voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method
forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to
approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for
electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon
secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state
legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on
their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.
Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also
importantly it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the
future. Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the
single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because
election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a
conversation on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the
upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked
choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big
source of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene
voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every
Eugene voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet
helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's
Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
<
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR
voting, are
overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
without
understanding they are basically just supplying money to the
huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice
ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR
counting, when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff
round. Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two
runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least
66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method
such as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this
representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support
STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority
voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to
vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,
is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other
claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR
voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty
of the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting
wasted lots
of words talking about issues that are not as important as the
above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed
strongly, and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is
conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra influence by
exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2
and 3.
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and
barriers to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting
against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about
$2,000 I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement
from me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my
name as
being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will
agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded
the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are
needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is
how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the
same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills
later worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention of
"overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology
for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession
by the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being
exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first
statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using
software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot
can be
paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent
pattern, and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the
other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified election software
must not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
"overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting
it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording
calls this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,
STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of
instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly
article where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it
does not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are
correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get
to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a
strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are
not as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,
election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will
undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being
"user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote"
limitation will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark
will be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR
ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the
left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard
ratings as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots,
a voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they
prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is
allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always
the least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,
and the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in
Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots
are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some
voters to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user
unfriendliness" will
disappear when better election software becomes available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the
failures in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like
STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their
enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way
that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the
future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this
subtle issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round
of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added
words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated
when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who
would lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
The result would be an election method that overcomes the
criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the
addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from
what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push through the
Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on your belief
that the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum
is an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon
voters, the
majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it
would hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which
we had to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The
referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition against
the STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know
lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better
election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)
In fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid
1990's, long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
"ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.
Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene
voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of
Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November
referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their
climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in
a very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at
the north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,
which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which
the snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me
to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that
will switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of further
delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for
Oregon after
we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our
Oregon state
representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this
huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy will
"uncrazify" our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with
problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist
in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.
You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version
of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method
experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the
funding to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff
voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a
clipping of the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him
promoting that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and
heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state
legislature. If
you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm
open to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was
reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al
Mobley as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would
have been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system
that, if
it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,
Dave, in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need
for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the
candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have
been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as
we take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature
has wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
<https://electorama.com/em> for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for
list info
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info
be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance.
Expressed another way ...
I'm very interested in fleshing this out a bit more. In some situations,
this is the main drawback of score voting; min-maxing means your ballot
expresses less information than a full ranking and produces worse results
than most Condorcet methods. But in other situations, this is a huge
strength of rated voting that I think we really need to keep.
The place where this is bad is the zero-information setting. True zero-info
almost never exists, but low-information settings crop up if you have a
sincere Condorcet cycle, several clones, or a nonpartisan local election.
In these settings, it would be very nice to have voters be perfectly honest.
The place where this is good is in the high-information setting where
voters follow the polls, or know . Then, every "sensible" voting method
will encourage exaggeration: if you rank or rate the best frontrunner at
the top, this maximizes your support for them, and therefore your impact on
the election. Similarly, ranking or rating a candidate last minimizes your
support for them.
The only difference in the case of cardinal/rating methods is you can do
this without being forced to engage in order-reversal. This is a big
f*cking deal. Lots of voters will refuse to engage in decapitation
to protect a Condorcet winner (e.g. Begich in Alaska): it's
counterintuitive, makes voters feel icky, and reduces their favorite
candidate's shot at winning. Even if they were willing, this kind of
dishonest order-reversal strategy can make it impossible to identify the
sincere Condorcet winner. ("Hmm, is RFK Jr. trailing because of the brain
worm or the major parties burying him?")
In high-information situations, this kind of approval-thresholding is the
least-damaging kind of strategy:
So, I suppose my real question is: is there any voting system that
satisfies both properties? Sincere favorite and later-no-help are enough
for voters who follow good polls to work out the Condorcet winner, by
making min-maxing the optimal strategy. On the other hand, I don't know if
they're necessary or if they're compatible with honesty in the
zero-information case.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 10:34 AM Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:
First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? ...
Multiple reasons. Here are a few:
Lots of voters, including me, have difficulty thinking in terms of
ratings for governmental elections. Even movie ratings are head
scratchers for me. If I enjoyed a movie I give it 5 stars, if I hated a
comedy movie that didn't even make me smile I give it 1 star, if I hated
a movie with a bad plot and bad acting I give it 1 star, sometimes I'll
give a movie 4 stars, otherwise I don't rate it because I can't decide
how I should rate it. Especially if the flaw was my failure to
recognize that it's a kind of movie I don't like (such as thriller,
horror, etc.) but which other people would like.
Although star ratings on Amazon and movies are very familiar, it's the
calculated overall ratings that are familiar. When someone chooses how
to rate a product or movie, lots of us don't know how to rate it in a
way that really summarizes that we like some aspects and dislike other
aspects.
Every cardinal/rating method I know of is vulnerable to what used to
be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance.
Expressed another way ...
Rating methods are vulnerable to what I'm calling the "clapping
tactic." In a talent/costume contest where the winner is based on the
loudness of clapping, I get extra influence by just pretending to clap
-- with no sound -- for the contestants I don't want to win. Of course
I clap loudly for the one or two contestants I want to win. Of course
this would become approval voting if everyone did it.
It's easy for me to mark a ranked choice ballot. That's because I can
easily recognize which candidate I like better between any two
candidates. If I can't decide which I like better, I rank them the same
-- if the ballot instructions don't tell me to avoid mythical "overvotes."
Ranked choice ballots can be marked as a rating ballot -- IF the same
choice column can be marked more than once. It's just FairVote's
primitive idea of ignoring "overvotes" that prevents a voter from
"rating" two candidates the same on a ranked choice ballot. In
contrast, a rating ballot cannot be marked as a ranked choice ballot
without losing influence that's available by skipping some choice columns.
Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their
ratings, I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but
not other systems that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant
strategy in score, but STAR isn't score, and the runoff
prevents this.
The top-two runoff in STAR just modifies the exaggeration tactic. In
Score the tactic is to only mark the highest and lowest ratings. In
STAR, a simple tactic is to avoid marking level 2 and level 3. This
allows the voter to have influence during the runoff if the runoff is
between their level zero and level 1 candidates, and it provides
influence between the voter's level 4 and level 5 candidates.
More sophisticated marking tactics become available to an organization
(to recommend to their members) by hiring pollsters plus vote-counting
experts such as those of us who participate in this E-M forum. This
strategizing doesn't work if ranked choice ballots are used with a good
counting method.
Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR.
I too "have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR."
STAR fans are claiming that IRV is vulnerable to vote splitting!
They do not offer any evidence to support this claim. Even in the
scholarly article by Quinn, Wolk, & Ogren, they present this implied
association without any evidence. Nor does the article suggest what
they want the words "vote splitting" to mean.
My question is, how can IRV be vulnerable to vote splitting without STAR
also being vulnerable to vote splitting? (Humor warning; That's
splitting hairs!)
Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation
algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms.
Why didn't they advocate STAR-PR for electing Eugene city council members?
That's what minorities and women want. And employees would like it for
fighting against money-backed employers. And tenants would like it for
fighting against money-backed landlords.
Instead the STAR initiative was to continue with single-winner
elections. Ten years ago this single-winner reform would have been a
worthwhile reform. Now, with Portland already having adopted STV
starting with this year's November election, single-winner methods are
becoming recognized as obsolete for city councils and, hopefully soon,
state legislatures.
Thank you for your questions!
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:
Hi Richard! You might want to shorten this :) I skimmed it, but I might
have missed a few things. I have some questions.
First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? I really
doubt ballot design is the most important part of a reform proposal.
From what I can tell, there's a lot of research showing spoiled ballots
are much more common when ranking, even if you allow equal-ratings.
Ranked ballots still allow for skipped ranks and voters who misinterpret
ranks as ratings. There's a huge spike in the number of spoiled ballots
when you have 4 or 5 candidates, because people mistake the rankings for
a 1-4 or 1-5 scale. (And lots of cities use cumulative voting for city
councils, making things more confusing!)
Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their ratings,
I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but not other systems
that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant strategy in score, but STAR
isn't score, and the runoff prevents this.
Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR.
Spoiler effects, sure, because STAR fails IIA. But I think of
vote-splitting as meaning clone-negativity (whereas STAR is
intentionally a bit clone-positive, to encourage parties to run at least
2 candidates).
Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation
algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 5:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>
wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR
voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also importantly
it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the future.
Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a conversation
on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big source
of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene
voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet <
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, are
overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
without
understanding they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR counting,
when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff round.
Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method such
as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting wasted
lots
of words talking about issues that are not as important as the above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed strongly,
and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra influence by exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and 3.
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about $2,000
I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement from
me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my name as
being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later
worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention of "overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot can be
paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified election software must
not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
"overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article
where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it does
not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being "user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark will
be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard ratings
as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a
voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the
least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, and
the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some voters
to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" will
disappear when better election software becomes available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the failures
in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle
issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
The result would be an election method that overcomes the criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, the
majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it would
hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we had
to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In
fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's, long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
"ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the
north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the
snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will
switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of further delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon
after
we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon
state
representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy will "uncrazify"
our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping of
the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him promoting
that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state legislature.
If
you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al Mobley
as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would have
been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system that,
if
it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, Dave,
in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as we
take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has
wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
<https://electorama.com/em> for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
Mike,
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole)
method is garbage.
Unlike proper Hare/STV ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third.
From a May 2014 EM post of mine:
The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable
Mutual Dominant Third.
"I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that,
"Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT):
If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on
more than a third of the ballots, and if all the S
candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.
This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is
invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy.
ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT).
05 A=C
31 A>B
34 B>A
30 C>B
B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is
the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A."
Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a
majority stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any
difference, but in the ER(whole) version it does.
Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy:
"On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote:
45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B)
35 B>A
20 C>B
B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is
ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins.
(This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say,
49/48/3)."
With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In
this example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the
first round.
With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like
Bucklin). That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority
stopping rule with a Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when
the leading candidate's score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise
opposition score from any remaining candidate.
The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's simple
sincere zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method
the voter should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would
approve if the method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest.
Chris B.
On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already
received FairVote’s advice.
Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of
IRV’s strategic trainwreck.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff
<email9648742@gmail.com> wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
> Are you saying that the IRV that the November
referendum would enact
> allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
YES
> …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal
ranking?
It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning
anything about it.
If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee
shit.
Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
VoteFair Guy:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November
referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
That’s a yes or no question.
Yes or no?
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal
ranking?
Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point
(“vote”) from
your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little
fraction of a
vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a
method that you say
doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I
doubt that people
will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.
The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the
referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org
<mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open
letter to STAR voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of
election-method forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will
vote to approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting
for electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the
Oregon secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon
state legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted
ranked choice voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their
initiatives on their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled>
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section
4. Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes."
Also importantly it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined
in the future. Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the
single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which
Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because
election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous
misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered
a conversation on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from
you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to
expensive or embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition
against, the upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt
ranked choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting
promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history
of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization
was a big source of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed
to Eugene voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting
initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for
"opposition" arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to
every Eugene voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's
pamphlet helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene
Voter's Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
<https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of
STAR voting, are
overlooking the most important issues that account
for why STAR voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more
carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is
your enemy, without
understanding they are basically just supplying
money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked
choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet
pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of
STAR counting, when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the
runoff round. Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the
top-two runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference
between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method
such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does
increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three
seats per district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation
for at least 66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a
single-winner method such as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this
representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does
not reach the higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who
support STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the
many(!) minority voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be
used in Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is
vulnerable to vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote
splitting, is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all
your other claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something
that STAR voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you
are guilty of the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the
FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR
voting wasted lots
of words talking about issues that are not as
important as the above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include
the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the
monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed
for use among friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be
expressed strongly, and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where
voting is conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting.
However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a
disadvantage in governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra
influence by exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at
levels 2 and 3.
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations,
and barriers to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been
fighting against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the
fee (about $2,000 I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a
statement from me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the
November referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission
to use my name as
being in support of the upcoming November
referendum, I will agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the
FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska
elections yielded the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the
FairVote organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE
BALLOTS are needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in
collaboration, is how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more
candidates at the same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon
legislative "rules" committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote
organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked
choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed
FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these
bills later worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the
dramatically improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention
of "overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's
terminology for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice
column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take
credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a
concession by the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is
finally being exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have
the first statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can
be using software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at
the same preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern,
that ballot can be
paired with another ballot that has the same
equivalent pattern, and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one
of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as
support for the other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting
using decimal numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified
election software must not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of
mythical "overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which
upgraded election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy,
but getting it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum
wording calls this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid
criticism that you, STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of
instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR
scholarly article where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent
ranked choice ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation
because it does not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical
"overvotes" are correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly
issue I'll get to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly
article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply
when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to
rank a strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and
there are not as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted
correctly, election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.
That will undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice
ballots as being "user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no
"overvote" limitation will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are
easier to mark will be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it
were a STAR ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse
the left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column
labels -- words instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some
people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters
regard ratings as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked
choice ballots, a voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach,
whichever they prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called
overvotes is allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it
avoids saying anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy,
and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we
disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is
not always the least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington
mayoral election, and the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong
winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy
to see in Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked
choice ballots are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can
require some voters to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely)
to get the fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user
unfriendliness" will
disappear when better election software becomes
available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to
defend the failures in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of
people like STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote
organization as their enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written
clearly, in a way that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw
in the future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be
sufficient to correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand
this subtle issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can
be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as:
"If a round of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that
candidate is elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would
win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the
Ranked Choice Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case
the added words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are
eliminated when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a
candidate who would lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining
candidate."
The result would be an election method that
overcomes the criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that
the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can,
with the addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant
election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not
welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly
differs from what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push
through the Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters,
might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on
your belief that the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this
referendum is an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene
initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all
Oregon voters, the
majority of whom want a better election system.
Remember it would hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor
in which we had to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of
independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.
The referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition
against the STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I
used to know lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a
better election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than
plurality.) In fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need
to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the
mid 1990's, long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long
before the name "ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I
attended so many dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived
there. Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see
how Eugene voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge
number of Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice
ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR
ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the
November referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did
all the coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at
Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National
Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one
of their climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our
planet is in a very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice
coverage at the north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back
into space, which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate
at which the snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what
motivates me to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping
point that will switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of
further delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic
prosperity for Oregon after
we adopt a well-designed election system for
electing our Oregon state
representatives. (That's the next step after
adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity
will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is
giving us this huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that
will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy
will "uncrazify" our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with
problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress
who persist in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make
this happen. You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's
flawed version of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon
election-method experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of
the funding to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of
instant-runoff voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent
me a clipping of the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about
him promoting that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I
have seen and heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon
state legislature. If
you should want to meet via video to ask any
questions, I'm open to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer
I was reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become
Oregon governor because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful
funding to Al Mobley as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave
Frohnmayer would have been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an
election system that, if
it had been used back then, would have elected
Mark's father, Dave, in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler
candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be
proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters
about the need for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote
splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark
more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie
that the candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least
popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation
we have been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than
against you, as we take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon
legislature has wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.
Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see
https://electorama.com/em
https://electorama.com/em for list info
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see
https://electorama.com/em for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - seehttps://electorama.com/em for list info
Robert,
What do you think of Adam Tarr's old idea of using A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?
He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.
I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.
Chris B.
On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote:
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:
they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots.
Not for governmental elections. Elections are not about utility. Not utilitarian. We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics. When we vote, we don't have to be "fair to the other side".
We vote to best serve our own political interests. It's a battle of sorts. They call them "campaigns".
They are easier to fill out.
That's horseshit. Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over the others, but then they have to figure out how much they prefer that candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or lesser evil) higher or lower. In any Cardinal system and whenever there are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates), the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate. Score them too high and you hurt your favorite. Score too low and you help your greater evil.
You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with zero evidence. And it doesn't even make common sense.
They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference.
Yes. And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans. And the timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that expression.
And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring. How much expression is there? The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is related to how many levels of scoring is there. More levels, more expressivity. Why not have 100 levels? My vote for Candidate Whoever is the sqrt(3). Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity?
There is the Paradox of Choice problem. At some point, more degree of choice makes it harder to choose.
They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5 for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc.
Ordinal ballots stay the same, too.
This whole thing is just baloney: Claim followed by claim followed by claim. Nothing really backing it up.
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 01:18 Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:
Mike,
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole)
method is garbage.
Maybe. Probably. …but it was suggested because it’s better garbage than
ordinary IRV.
I wouldn’t advocate garbage, but I suggested that garbage to Richie because
it’s a “Lesser-Of-2-Garbages”.
At least it avoids IRV’s worst.
[I don’t have any comments farther down in the text. It’s easier to say
that than to delete the unreplied text.]
Unlike proper Hare/STV ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third.
From a May 2014 EM post of mine:
The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable
Mutual Dominant Third.
"I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that,
"Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT):
If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on more
than a third of the ballots, and if all the S
candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.
This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is
invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy.
ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT).
05 A=C
31 A>B
34 B>A
30 C>B
B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is
the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A."
Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a majority
stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any difference, but in
the ER(whole) version it does.
Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy:
"On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote:
45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B)
35 B>A
20 C>B
B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is
ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins.
(This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say,
49/48/3)."
With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In this
example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the first round.
With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like Bucklin).
That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority stopping rule with a
Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when the leading candidate's
score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise opposition score from any
remaining candidate.
The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's simple sincere
zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method the voter
should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would approve if the
method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest.
Chris B.
On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.
Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
YES
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.
If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.
Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy
On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
VoteFair Guy:
Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
That’s a yes or no question.
Yes or no?
…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)
from
your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you
say
doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that
people
will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.
The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>
wrote:
Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR
voting
promoters.
Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method
forum
readers:
In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to
approve or
defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
Oregon
governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon
secretary of
state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state
legislature!
This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
voting
have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
state's ballots.
Here's the full text of the referendum:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
<
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.
Importantly
the
words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also
importantly it's
well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the
future. Also
it gives explicit permission to later adopt the
single-transferable
vote
(STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method
reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
involved.
........................
Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a
conversation on
the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
promoters of
STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
embarrassing
mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the
upcoming
statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
voting for some Oregon elections.
I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
correctly identified relevant information.
* Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
misrepresentations.
* Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big
source of
money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene
voters.
* Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
* Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
arguments
in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene
voter.
* Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet
helped
defeat the STAR voting initiative.
(E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
<
https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
)
However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,
are
overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
voting
was defeated.
Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
* You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
without
understanding they are basically just supplying money to the
huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots
are
much better than STAR ballots.
* Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR
counting, when
a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff
round. Yet
your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two
runoff
step, which is not what they were criticizing.
* You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
representation
for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
district
(as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method
such as
STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
higher
level that minorities want, and deserve.
* Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
voting
is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority
voter
advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
Portland
in November to elect our city councilors.
* Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,
is a
lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other
claims.
If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR
voting
avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of
the
same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
organization.
* The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting
wasted lots
of words talking about issues that are not as important as the
above
issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
summarized
ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
friends
where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed
strongly, and
where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is
conducted
as a
single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
governmental
elections. That's because voters get extra influence by
exaggerating
their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and
Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers
to
collaboration.
I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting
against
them for three decades.
Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about
$2,000 I
believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement
from me,
Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
referendum,
I will gladly accept their assistance.
Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my
name as
being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
-- if
the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
organization
and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
correct winner.
I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
organization,
and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are
needed
for
election-method reform.
Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
election-method reform is going to happen.
This brings us to the core point in this letter.
"Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
preference level."
These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
committee
several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
attempting to
push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
should be
counted.
Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
because
of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later
worked
with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
improved
wording that is now in the November referendum.
The referendum wording does not contain any mention of
"overvotes."
This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by
the
fans of the FairVote organization.
Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being
exposed.
The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first
statewide
Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using
software
that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
preference
level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot
can be
paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,
and
one
of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the
other
candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
numbers
and rounding down to integers, but certified election software
must not
use the decimal-number shortcut.)
The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
"overvotes"
is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
election
software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it
certified requires certified data.
The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls
this
"overvote" issue a "counting detail."
Why is this "counting detail" so important?
This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,
STAR
voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of
instant-runoff
voting.
Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article
where
the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
ballots
to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it
does not
apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are
correctly
counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
shortly.)
(E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
told to
avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a
strongly
disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not
as
many
choice columns as candidates.
However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,
election
data
will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will
undermine
part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being
"user
unfriendly."
Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation
will
allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
Just like on a score ballot!
This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark
will be
able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR
ballot!
They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the
left-to-right
orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
instead
of stars and numbers.
STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
think in
terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard
ratings as
more difficult to assign.)
When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a
voter
can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they
prefer!
To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is
allowed by
the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
anything
about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
FairVote organization.
The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the
least
popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,
and the
recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
diagrams.
You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
"user
unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some
voters to
mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
fairest
("correct") election result.
Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"
will
disappear when better election software becomes available.
The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the
failures in
Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like
STAR
voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their
enemy.
Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way
that
makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the
future.
I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
correct
this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle
issue.
Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of
counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
elected; a
pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
one-on-one
contest against every remaining candidate."
Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
Including
Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words
would
say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated
when
they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would
lose
every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
The result would be an election method that overcomes the
criticisms
against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
organization foolishly tries to defend.
Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the
addition of
two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
advantages
of STAR voting.
Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
interpretation.
Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from
what
the
FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
legislature.
Now I'll discuss a concern.
I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
sabotage
the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that
the
FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is
an
opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,
the
majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it
would hurt
Eugene voters too!
And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we
had to
vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
candidate
Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The
referendum
will
solve that vote-splitting problem.
In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the
STAR
voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know
lots of
people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In
fact,
long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
"order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's,
long
before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
"ranked
choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
dances
in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.
Getting
back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene
voters
would respond to your initiative.
The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of
Eugene
voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November
referendum
could lead to planet-wide suicide!
Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
coursework
for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
University.
Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their
climate
models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a
very
bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the
north
and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,
which
increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the
snow
and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to
pursue
election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will
switch
governments into climate-relevant action instead of further
delays.
Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon
after
we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon
state
representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
referendum.)
(And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this
huge
opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
At the national level, higher levels of democracy will
"uncrazify" our
crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
being
puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You
pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
"their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method
experts
could write a well-designed referendum.
I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding
to
promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff
voting.
That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping
of the
article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him
promoting that
method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and
heard
each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state
legislature. If
you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open
to
that
form of communication.
While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was
reminded
that
Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
because
of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al
Mobley as a
spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would
have been
a great governor.
In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system
that, if
it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,
Dave, in
spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
* You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need
for
better ballots.
* You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
* Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
candidate at the same preference level.
* You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the
candidate
with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
building together throughout many years.
I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as
we take
advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has
wisely
given to us.
We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
melting
faster than elections are being improved.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
----
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
<https://electorama.com/em> for list info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info
Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
On 06/05/2024 8:55 AM EDT Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:
What do you think of Adam Tarr's old idea of using A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?
Why not just A-B as Approval? Or why not A-B-C-D as Approval? Or why not just A as Approval (I know that would result in Condorcet-Plurality). What rhyme or reason is used to determine where the Approval cutoff is?
He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.
I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.
Please take a look at these templates for RCV legislation: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DGvs2F_YoKcbl2SXzCcfm3nEMkO0zCbR/view .
Even though the actual legislation is not verbatim with these templates, the IRV template (first one) has actually been used for the content of the ballot question for an initiative for IRV. The second template has BTR-IRV.
Now consider the last three templates ("Straight-ahead Condorcet"). So this is specifically about what to put in subdivision (4) to replace:
"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate having the plurality of first preferences is elected."
What exactly will the language be to replace that line of code?
"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then ..." what?
Perhaps,
"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate receiving the most first and second preferences is elected."
I might call that Condorcet-Bucklin. Bucklin and Approval have something in common and that common property is that it's "counting marks" and not counting people. This may be perceived by some legal analysts as violating One-person-one-vote, I dunno.
Would that be a little more resistant to the burying strategy than Condorcet-Plurality? How about comparing it to Condorcet-TTR, which is nearly Condorcet-IRV?
"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the two candidates receiving the most first preferences shall runoff against each other and the candidate in that pair that is preferred over the other by the greater number of voters shall be elected."
How would MO's "wv-Condorcet" be worded? (Since he is apparently not plonking me as was threatened.)
It needs to be short and sweet. ("Sweet" means that it ostensibly elects the candidate with the "greatest" voter support, however that voter support is defined. But the definition of that "greatest" voter support needs to be simple and understandable and make sense to pedestrians.)
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
.
.
.
ICA and ICT seem like they could be fine, but I'm slightly hesitant because
they violate later-no-help; that means you should expect turkey-raising. I
mentioned earlier that, ideally I'd want later-no-help and FBC, but what I
really want is to be sure the optimal strategy is sincere and elects the
Condorcet winner.
On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 5:56 AM Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:
Robert,
What do you think of Adam Tarr's old idea of using A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?
He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.
I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.
Chris B.
On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote:
On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:
they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.
Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots.
Not for governmental elections. Elections are not about utility. Not
utilitarian. We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges
for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics. When we vote, we don't have
to be "fair to the other side".
We vote to best serve our own political interests. It's a battle of
sorts. They call them "campaigns".
They are easier to fill out.
That's horseshit. Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over
the others, but then they have to figure out how much they prefer that
candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not
they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or
lesser evil) higher or lower. In any Cardinal system and whenever there
are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates),
the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to
approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate. Score them too
high and you hurt your favorite. Score too low and you help your greater
evil.
You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with zero evidence.
And it doesn't even make common sense.
They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference.
Yes. And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans. And the
timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that
expression.
And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring. How
much expression is there? The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is
related to how many levels of scoring is there. More levels, more
expressivity. Why not have 100 levels? My vote for Candidate Whoever is
the sqrt(3). Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity?
There is the Paradox of Choice problem. At some point, more degree of
choice makes it harder to choose.
They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the
number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5
for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc.
Ordinal ballots stay the same, too.
This whole thing is just baloney: Claim followed by claim followed by
claim. Nothing really backing it up.
--
r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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