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Open letter to STAR voting promoters

MG
Michael Garman
Tue, Jun 4, 2024 11:40 PM

Do you have evidence of this?

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.

Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

YES

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.

If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.

Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.

Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

VoteFair Guy:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

That’s a yes or no question.

Yes or no?

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)

from

your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a method that you

say

doesn’t have a split-vote problem.

An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that

people

will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.

The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>

wrote:

 Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR

voting

 promoters.

 Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method

forum

 readers:

 In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to

approve or

 defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
 Oregon
 governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon

secretary of

 state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon state

legislature!

 This is huge!  All other states that have adopted ranked choice

voting

 have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
 state's ballots.

 Here's the full text of the referendum:
 The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.

Importantly

 the
 words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  Also

importantly it's

 well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the

future.  Also

 it gives explicit permission to later adopt the

single-transferable

 vote
 (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
 adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

 Note:  The following "open letter" is long because election-method
 reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
 involved.

 ........................

 Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

 The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a

conversation on

 the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
 promoters of
 STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

 These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or

embarrassing

 mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the

upcoming

 statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
 voting for some Oregon elections.


 I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
 correctly identified relevant information.

 * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
 misrepresentations.

 * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big

source of

 money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene

voters.

 * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.

 * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"

arguments

 in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene

voter.

 * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet

helped

 defeat the STAR voting initiative.


 (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
 However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,

are

 overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR

voting

 was defeated.

 Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.

 * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,

without

 understanding they are basically just supplying money to the

huge(!)

 number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots

are

 much better than STAR ballots.

 * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
 unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR

counting, when

 a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff

round.  Yet

 your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two

runoff

 step, which is not what they were criticizing.

 * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
 single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does increase
 representation
 for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three seats per

district

 (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
 percent of that district's voters.  Yes, a single-winner method

such as

 STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
 guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does not reach the

higher

 level that minorities want, and deserve.

 * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
 voting
 is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority

voter

 advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  Remember STV will be used in

Portland

 in November to elect our city councilors.

 * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
 splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,

is a

 lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all your other

claims.

 If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR

voting

 avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of

the

 same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
 organization.

 * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting

wasted lots

 of words talking about issues that are not as important as the

above

 issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
 summarized
 ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
 criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.


 Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among

friends

 where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed

strongly, and

 where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is

conducted

 as a
 single round of ballot marking and counting.  However the
 strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in

governmental

 elections.  That's because voters get extra influence by

exaggerating

 their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and
 Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers

to

 collaboration.

 I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been fighting

against

 them for three decades.

 Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about

$2,000 I

 believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement

from me,

 Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November

referendum,

 I will gladly accept their assistance.

 Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my

name as

 being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
 -- if
 the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
 organization
 and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
 correct winner.

 I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote

organization,

 and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are

needed

 for
 election-method reform.

 Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
 election-method reform is going to happen.

 This brings us to the core point in this letter.


 "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
 preference level."

 These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"

committee

 several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
 attempting to
 push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
 should be
 counted.

 Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
 because
 of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later

worked

 with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically

improved

 wording that is now in the November referendum.

 The referendum wording does not contain any mention of

"overvotes."

 This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
 marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.

 This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
 dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

 If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by

the

 fans of the FairVote organization.

 Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being

exposed.

 The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first

statewide

 Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using

software

 that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

 As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same

preference

 level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot

can be

 paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,

and

 one
 of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
 candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the

other

 candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting using decimal

numbers

 and rounding down to integers, but certified election software

must not

 use the decimal-number shortcut.)

 The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical

"overvotes"

 is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded

election

 software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, but getting it
 certified requires certified data.

 The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls

this

 "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

 Why is this "counting detail" so important?

 This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,

STAR

 voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of

instant-runoff

 voting.

 Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article

where

 the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice

ballots

 to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation because it

does not

 apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are

correctly

 counted.  (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
 shortly.)


 (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly article:
 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )


 Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
 told to
 avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to rank a

strongly

 disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not

as

 many
 choice columns as candidates.

 However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,

election

 data
 will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  That will

undermine

 part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being

"user

 unfriendly."

 Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation

will

 allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

 Just like on a score ballot!

 This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark

will be

 able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR

ballot!

 They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the

left-to-right

 orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words

instead

 of stars and numbers.

 STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
 think in
 terms of ratings rather than rankings.  (Other voters regard

ratings as

 more difficult to assign.)

 When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a

voter

 can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they

prefer!

 To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is

allowed by

 the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying

anything

 about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."


 There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
 promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we disagree with the
 FairVote organization.

 The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the

least

 popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,

and the

 recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.

 You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
 diagrams.

 You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
 "user
 unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can require some

voters to

 mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the

fairest

 ("correct") election result.

 Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"

will

 disappear when better election software becomes available.

 The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the

failures in

 Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of people like

STAR

 voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their

enemy.

 Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way

that

 makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the

future.

 I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to

correct

 this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle

issue.

 Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
 implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: "If a round of
 counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is

elected; a

 pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
 one-on-one
 contest against every remaining candidate."

 Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice

Including

 Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method.  In this case the added words
 would
 say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated

when

 they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would

lose

 every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."

 The result would be an election method that overcomes the

criticisms

 against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
 organization foolishly tries to defend.

 Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the

addition of

 two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
 advantages
 of STAR voting.

 Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
 interpretation.

 Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
 reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from

what

 the
 FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
 legislature.


 Now I'll discuss a concern.

 I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
 sabotage
 the November referendum.  That might be based on your belief that

the

 FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is

an

 opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.

 Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,

the

 majority of whom want a better election system.  Remember it

would hurt

 Eugene voters too!

 And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we

had to

 vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
 candidate
 Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  The

referendum

 will
 solve that vote-splitting problem.

 In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the

STAR

 voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I used to know

lots of

 people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
 system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)  In

fact,

 long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
 "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the mid 1990's,

long

 before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name

"ranked

 choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many

dances

 in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.

Getting

 back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene

voters

 would respond to your initiative.

 The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of

Eugene

 voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
 well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.


 In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November

referendum

 could lead to planet-wide suicide!

 Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the

coursework

 for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
 University.
    Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
 Atmospheric
 Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their

climate

 models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a

very

 bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the

north

 and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,

which

 increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the

snow

 and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what motivates me to
 pursue
 election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

 Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will

switch

 governments into climate-relevant action instead of further

delays.

 Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon

after

 we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon

state

 representatives.  (That's the next step after adopting this
 referendum.)
    (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
 domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)


 In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this

huge

 opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
 civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

 At the national level, higher levels of democracy will

"uncrazify" our

 crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
 leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
 being
 puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

 You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.  You
 pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
 "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method

experts

 could write a well-designed referendum.


 I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding

to

 promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff

voting.

 That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping

of the

 article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him

promoting that

 method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and

heard

 each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state

legislature.  If

 you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open

to

 that
 form of communication.

 While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was

reminded

 that
 Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor

because

 of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al

Mobley as a

 spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would

have been

 a great governor.

 In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system

that, if

 it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,

Dave, in

 spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.


 All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.

 * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need

for

 better ballots.

 * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.

 * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
 candidate at the same preference level.

 * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the

candidate

 with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.


 Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
 building together throughout many years.

 I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as

we take

 advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has

wisely

 given to us.

 We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  Glaciers are
 melting
 faster than elections are being improved.

 Richard Fobes
 The VoteFair guy
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Do you have evidence of this? On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote > counted whole, & he immediately refused it. > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received >> FairVote’s advice. >> >> Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s >> strategic trainwreck. >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy < >>> electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: >>> >>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact >>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>> >>>> YES >>>> >>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>> >>>> It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it. >>> >>> >>> >>> If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit. >>> >>> Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada. >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Richard Fobes >>>> the VoteFair guy >>>> >>>> >>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>> > VoteFair Guy: >>>> > >>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact >>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>> > >>>> > That’s a yes or no question. >>>> > >>>> > Yes or no? >>>> > >>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>> > >>>> > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”) >>>> from >>>> > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a >>>> > vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you >>>> say >>>> > doesn’t have a split-vote problem. >>>> > >>>> > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that >>>> people >>>> > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of >>>> > meaning-mystery text. >>>> > >>>> > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it >>>> > would be if were something different from what it is. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy >>>> > <electionmethods@votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> >>>> wrote: >>>> > >>>> > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR >>>> voting >>>> > promoters. >>>> > >>>> > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method >>>> forum >>>> > readers: >>>> > >>>> > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to >>>> approve or >>>> > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing >>>> > Oregon >>>> > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon >>>> secretary of >>>> > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state >>>> legislature! >>>> > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice >>>> voting >>>> > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their >>>> > state's ballots. >>>> > >>>> > Here's the full text of the referendum: >>>> > >>>> > >>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>> < >>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. >>>> Importantly >>>> > the >>>> > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also >>>> importantly it's >>>> > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the >>>> future. Also >>>> > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the >>>> single-transferable >>>> > vote >>>> > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently >>>> > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. >>>> > >>>> > Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method >>>> > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are >>>> > involved. >>>> > >>>> > ........................ >>>> > >>>> > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: >>>> > >>>> > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a >>>> conversation on >>>> > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the >>>> > promoters of >>>> > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. >>>> > >>>> > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or >>>> embarrassing >>>> > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the >>>> upcoming >>>> > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice >>>> > voting for some Oregon elections. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have >>>> > correctly identified relevant information. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting >>>> > misrepresentations. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big >>>> source of >>>> > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene >>>> voters. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition" >>>> arguments >>>> > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene >>>> voter. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet >>>> helped >>>> > defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet: >>>> > >>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet >>>> < >>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> >>>> ) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, >>>> are >>>> > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR >>>> voting >>>> > was defeated. >>>> > >>>> > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully. >>>> > >>>> > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy, >>>> without >>>> > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the >>>> huge(!) >>>> > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots >>>> are >>>> > much better than STAR ballots. >>>> > >>>> > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the >>>> > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR >>>> counting, when >>>> > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff >>>> round. Yet >>>> > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two >>>> runoff >>>> > step, which is not what they were criticizing. >>>> > >>>> > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your >>>> > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the >>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase >>>> > representation >>>> > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per >>>> district >>>> > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66 >>>> > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method >>>> such as >>>> > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation >>>> > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the >>>> higher >>>> > level that minorities want, and deserve. >>>> > >>>> > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR >>>> > voting >>>> > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority >>>> voter >>>> > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the >>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in >>>> Portland >>>> > in November to elect our city councilors. >>>> > >>>> > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote >>>> > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, >>>> is a >>>> > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other >>>> claims. >>>> > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR >>>> voting >>>> > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of >>>> the >>>> > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote >>>> > organization. >>>> > >>>> > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting >>>> wasted lots >>>> > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the >>>> above >>>> > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of >>>> > summarized >>>> > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity >>>> > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among >>>> friends >>>> > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed >>>> strongly, and >>>> > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is >>>> conducted >>>> > as a >>>> > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the >>>> > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in >>>> governmental >>>> > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by >>>> exaggerating >>>> > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and >>>> 3. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers >>>> to >>>> > collaboration. >>>> > >>>> > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting >>>> against >>>> > them for three decades. >>>> > >>>> > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about >>>> $2,000 I >>>> > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement >>>> from me, >>>> > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November >>>> referendum, >>>> > I will gladly accept their assistance. >>>> > >>>> > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my >>>> name as >>>> > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree >>>> > -- if >>>> > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote >>>> > organization >>>> > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the >>>> > correct winner. >>>> > >>>> > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote >>>> organization, >>>> > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are >>>> needed >>>> > for >>>> > election-method reform. >>>> > >>>> > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how >>>> > election-method reform is going to happen. >>>> > >>>> > This brings us to the core point in this letter. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same >>>> > preference level." >>>> > >>>> > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules" >>>> committee >>>> > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was >>>> > attempting to >>>> > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots >>>> > should be >>>> > counted. >>>> > >>>> > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and >>>> > because >>>> > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later >>>> worked >>>> > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically >>>> improved >>>> > wording that is now in the November referendum. >>>> > >>>> > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of >>>> "overvotes." >>>> > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for >>>> > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column. >>>> > >>>> > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for >>>> > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! >>>> > >>>> > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by >>>> the >>>> > fans of the FairVote organization. >>>> > >>>> > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being >>>> exposed. >>>> > >>>> > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first >>>> statewide >>>> > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using >>>> software >>>> > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." >>>> > >>>> > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same >>>> preference >>>> > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot >>>> can be >>>> > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, >>>> and >>>> > one >>>> > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two >>>> > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the >>>> other >>>> > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal >>>> numbers >>>> > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software >>>> must not >>>> > use the decimal-number shortcut.) >>>> > >>>> > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical >>>> "overvotes" >>>> > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded >>>> election >>>> > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it >>>> > certified requires certified data. >>>> > >>>> > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls >>>> this >>>> > "overvote" issue a "counting detail." >>>> > >>>> > Why is this "counting detail" so important? >>>> > >>>> > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, >>>> STAR >>>> > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of >>>> instant-runoff >>>> > voting. >>>> > >>>> > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article >>>> where >>>> > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice >>>> ballots >>>> > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it >>>> does not >>>> > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are >>>> correctly >>>> > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to >>>> > shortly.) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article: >>>> > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 >>>> > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are >>>> > told to >>>> > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a >>>> strongly >>>> > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not >>>> as >>>> > many >>>> > choice columns as candidates. >>>> > >>>> > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, >>>> election >>>> > data >>>> > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will >>>> undermine >>>> > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being >>>> "user >>>> > unfriendly." >>>> > >>>> > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation >>>> will >>>> > allow a voter to RATE the candidates. >>>> > >>>> > Just like on a score ballot! >>>> > >>>> > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark >>>> will be >>>> > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR >>>> ballot! >>>> > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the >>>> left-to-right >>>> > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words >>>> instead >>>> > of stars and numbers. >>>> > >>>> > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to >>>> > think in >>>> > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard >>>> ratings as >>>> > more difficult to assign.) >>>> > >>>> > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a >>>> voter >>>> > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they >>>> prefer! >>>> > >>>> > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is >>>> allowed by >>>> > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying >>>> anything >>>> > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the >>>> > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the >>>> > FairVote organization. >>>> > >>>> > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the >>>> least >>>> > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, >>>> and the >>>> > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner. >>>> > >>>> > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee >>>> > diagrams. >>>> > >>>> > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are >>>> > "user >>>> > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some >>>> voters to >>>> > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the >>>> fairest >>>> > ("correct") election result. >>>> > >>>> > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" >>>> will >>>> > disappear when better election software becomes available. >>>> > >>>> > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the >>>> failures in >>>> > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like >>>> STAR >>>> > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their >>>> enemy. >>>> > >>>> > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way >>>> that >>>> > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the >>>> future. >>>> > >>>> > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to >>>> correct >>>> > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle >>>> issue. >>>> > >>>> > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to >>>> > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of >>>> > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is >>>> elected; a >>>> > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every >>>> > one-on-one >>>> > contest against every remaining candidate." >>>> > >>>> > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice >>>> Including >>>> > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words >>>> > would >>>> > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated >>>> when >>>> > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would >>>> lose >>>> > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate." >>>> > >>>> > The result would be an election method that overcomes the >>>> criticisms >>>> > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote >>>> > organization foolishly tries to defend. >>>> > >>>> > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the >>>> addition of >>>> > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method >>>> > advantages >>>> > of STAR voting. >>>> > >>>> > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this >>>> > interpretation. >>>> > >>>> > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a >>>> > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from >>>> what >>>> > the >>>> > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon >>>> > legislature. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Now I'll discuss a concern. >>>> > >>>> > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to >>>> > sabotage >>>> > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that >>>> the >>>> > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is >>>> an >>>> > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative. >>>> > >>>> > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, >>>> the >>>> > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it >>>> would hurt >>>> > Eugene voters too! >>>> > >>>> > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we >>>> had to >>>> > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent >>>> > candidate >>>> > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The >>>> referendum >>>> > will >>>> > solve that vote-splitting problem. >>>> > >>>> > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the >>>> STAR >>>> > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know >>>> lots of >>>> > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election >>>> > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In >>>> fact, >>>> > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using >>>> > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's, >>>> long >>>> > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name >>>> "ranked >>>> > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many >>>> dances >>>> > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. >>>> Getting >>>> > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene >>>> voters >>>> > would respond to your initiative. >>>> > >>>> > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of >>>> Eugene >>>> > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a >>>> > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November >>>> referendum >>>> > could lead to planet-wide suicide! >>>> > >>>> > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the >>>> coursework >>>> > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State >>>> > University. >>>> > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for >>>> > Atmospheric >>>> > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their >>>> climate >>>> > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a >>>> very >>>> > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the >>>> north >>>> > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, >>>> which >>>> > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the >>>> snow >>>> > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to >>>> > pursue >>>> > election-method reform with a sense of urgency. >>>> > >>>> > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will >>>> switch >>>> > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further >>>> delays. >>>> > >>>> > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon >>>> after >>>> > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon >>>> state >>>> > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this >>>> > referendum.) >>>> > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce >>>> > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this >>>> huge >>>> > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help >>>> > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. >>>> > >>>> > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will >>>> "uncrazify" our >>>> > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving >>>> > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in >>>> > being >>>> > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. >>>> > >>>> > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You >>>> > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of >>>> > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method >>>> experts >>>> > could write a well-designed referendum. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding >>>> to >>>> > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff >>>> voting. >>>> > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping >>>> of the >>>> > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him >>>> promoting that >>>> > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and >>>> heard >>>> > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state >>>> legislature. If >>>> > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open >>>> to >>>> > that >>>> > form of communication. >>>> > >>>> > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was >>>> reminded >>>> > that >>>> > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor >>>> because >>>> > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al >>>> Mobley as a >>>> > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would >>>> have been >>>> > a great governor. >>>> > >>>> > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system >>>> that, if >>>> > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, >>>> Dave, in >>>> > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of. >>>> > >>>> > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need >>>> for >>>> > better ballots. >>>> > >>>> > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting. >>>> > >>>> > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one >>>> > candidate at the same preference level. >>>> > >>>> > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the >>>> candidate >>>> > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been >>>> > building together throughout many years. >>>> > >>>> > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as >>>> we take >>>> > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has >>>> wisely >>>> > given to us. >>>> > >>>> > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are >>>> > melting >>>> > faster than elections are being improved. >>>> > >>>> > Richard Fobes >>>> > The VoteFair guy >>>> > ---- >>>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em >>>> > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info >>>> > >>>> ---- >>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list >>>> info >>>> >>> ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list > info >
RB
robert bristow-johnson
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 12:02 AM

On 06/04/2024 6:59 PM EDT Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com wrote:

Robert is continuing to repeat his usual bigoted dogma schpiel with, as always, no answer to objections.

It's not always.  And I have a right to select.  I got finite energy.

That’s what makes it bigoted dogma instead of discussion.

Oh dear.  What class or group have I been targeting?

(Oh, T**** assholes.  Being an election poll worker and previously a very low-level elected "Inspector of Election", I ain't neutral about T**** trying to steal an election, acting like rules don't apply to him, inciting insurrection and chaos and simply lying about everything, including how the elections had been conducted.  If that makes me a bigot, so be it.  I think T**** has harmed the nation far more than Julius and Ethel Rosenberg did and deserves exactly the same punishment they got.  Hillary didn't even scratch the surface with her "deplorables" comment.  These Ters are deplorable bigoted assholes that are beyond reason.  They are just harmful.  Instead of migrants, we should be deporting Ters.  We can't reason with them.  They're brain-dead.  The only thing we can do is defeat them.)

That’s a violation of this mailing-list’s specified rules-of-conduct.

I thought you were plonking me.

Maybe those rules should be attached to the top of each thread. …& enforced.

BTW, CES recommends Approval, & rarely if ever mentions Score.

Clay S.

Equal Vote coalition mentions Condorcet (approvingly).  But they're STAR advocacy.

--

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

.
.
.

> On 06/04/2024 6:59 PM EDT Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Robert is continuing to repeat his usual bigoted dogma schpiel with, as always, no answer to objections. > It's not always. And I have a right to select. I got finite energy. > That’s what makes it bigoted dogma instead of discussion. > Oh dear. What class or group have I been targeting? (Oh, T**** assholes. Being an election poll worker and previously a very low-level elected "Inspector of Election", I ain't neutral about T**** trying to steal an election, acting like rules don't apply to him, inciting insurrection and chaos and simply lying about everything, including how the elections had been conducted. If that makes me a bigot, so be it. I think T**** has harmed the nation far more than Julius and Ethel Rosenberg did and deserves exactly the same punishment they got. Hillary didn't even scratch the surface with her "deplorables" comment. These T****ers are deplorable bigoted assholes that are beyond reason. They are just harmful. Instead of migrants, we should be deporting T****ers. We can't reason with them. They're brain-dead. The only thing we can do is defeat them.) > That’s a violation of this mailing-list’s specified rules-of-conduct. > I thought you were plonking me. > Maybe those rules should be attached to the top of each thread. …& enforced. > > BTW, CES recommends Approval, & rarely if ever mentions Score. Clay S. Equal Vote coalition mentions Condorcet (approvingly). But they're STAR advocacy. -- r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com "Imagination is more important than knowledge." . . .
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 1:23 AM

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman michael.garman@rankthevote.us
wrote:

Do you have evidence of this?

I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.

Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would

enact

allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

YES

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.

If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.

Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.

Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

VoteFair Guy:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would

enact

allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

That’s a yes or no question.

Yes or no?

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)

from

your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a method that you

say

doesn’t have a split-vote problem.

An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that

people

will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.

The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>

wrote:

 Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR

voting

 promoters.

 Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method

forum

 readers:

 In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to

approve or

 defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
 Oregon
 governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon

secretary of

 state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon state

legislature!

 This is huge!  All other states that have adopted ranked choice

voting

 have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on

their

 state's ballots.

 Here's the full text of the referendum:
 The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.

Importantly

 the
 words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  Also

importantly it's

 well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the

future.  Also

 it gives explicit permission to later adopt the

single-transferable

 vote
 (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
 adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

 Note:  The following "open letter" is long because

election-method

 reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
 involved.

 ........................

 Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

 The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a

conversation on

 the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
 promoters of
 STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

 These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or

embarrassing

 mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the

upcoming

 statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked

choice

 voting for some Oregon elections.


 I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
 correctly identified relevant information.

 * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
 misrepresentations.

 * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big

source of

 money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene

voters.

 * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.

 * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"

arguments

 in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene

voter.

 * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet

helped

 defeat the STAR voting initiative.


 (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
 However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,

are

 overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR

voting

 was defeated.

 Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.

 * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,

without

 understanding they are basically just supplying money to the

huge(!)

 number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice

ballots are

 much better than STAR ballots.

 * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
 unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR

counting, when

 a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff

round.  Yet

 your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two

runoff

 step, which is not what they were criticizing.

 * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
 single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does increase
 representation
 for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three seats per

district

 (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least

66

 percent of that district's voters.  Yes, a single-winner method

such as

 STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
 guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does not reach the

higher

 level that minorities want, and deserve.

 * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
 voting
 is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority

voter

 advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  Remember STV will be used in

Portland

 in November to elect our city councilors.

 * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
 splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,

is a

 lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all your other

claims.

 If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR

voting

 avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty

of the

 same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
 organization.

 * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting

wasted lots

 of words talking about issues that are not as important as the

above

 issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
 summarized
 ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
 criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.


 Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among

friends

 where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed

strongly, and

 where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is

conducted

 as a
 single round of ballot marking and counting.  However the
 strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in

governmental

 elections.  That's because voters get extra influence by

exaggerating

 their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2

and 3.

 Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and

barriers to

 collaboration.

 I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been fighting

against

 them for three decades.

 Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about

$2,000 I

 believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement

from me,

 Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November

referendum,

 I will gladly accept their assistance.

 Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my

name as

 being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will

agree

 -- if
 the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
 organization
 and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded

the

 correct winner.

 I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote

organization,

 and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are

needed

 for
 election-method reform.

 Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
 election-method reform is going to happen.

 This brings us to the core point in this letter.


 "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the

same

 preference level."

 These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"

committee

 several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
 attempting to
 push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
 should be
 counted.

 Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
 because
 of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later

worked

 with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically

improved

 wording that is now in the November referendum.

 The referendum wording does not contain any mention of

"overvotes."

 This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
 marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.

 This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
 dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

 If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by

the

 fans of the FairVote organization.

 Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being

exposed.

 The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first

statewide

 Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using

software

 that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

 As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same

preference

 level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot

can be

 paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,

and

 one
 of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
 candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the

other

 candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting using decimal

numbers

 and rounding down to integers, but certified election software

must not

 use the decimal-number shortcut.)

 The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical

"overvotes"

 is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded

election

 software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, but getting it
 certified requires certified data.

 The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls

this

 "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

 Why is this "counting detail" so important?

 This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,

STAR

 voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of

instant-runoff

 voting.

 Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly

article where

 the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice

ballots

 to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation because it

does not

 apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are

correctly

 counted.  (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get

to

 shortly.)


 (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly article:
 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )


 Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
 told to
 avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to rank a

strongly

 disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not

as

 many
 choice columns as candidates.

 However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,

election

 data
 will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  That will

undermine

 part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being

"user

 unfriendly."

 Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation

will

 allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

 Just like on a score ballot!

 This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark

will be

 able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR

ballot!

 They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the

left-to-right

 orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words

instead

 of stars and numbers.

 STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
 think in
 terms of ratings rather than rankings.  (Other voters regard

ratings as

 more difficult to assign.)

 When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a

voter

 can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they

prefer!

 To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is

allowed by

 the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying

anything

 about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."


 There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
 promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we disagree with the
 FairVote organization.

 The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always

the least

 popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,

and the

 recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.

 You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in

Yee

 diagrams.

 You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots

are

 "user
 unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can require some

voters to

 mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the

fairest

 ("correct") election result.

 Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"

will

 disappear when better election software becomes available.

 The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the

failures in

 Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of people like

STAR

 voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their

enemy.

 Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way

that

 makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the

future.

 I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to

correct

 this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle

issue.

 Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
 implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: "If a round

of

 counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is

elected; a

 pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
 one-on-one
 contest against every remaining candidate."

 Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice

Including

 Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method.  In this case the added

words

 would
 say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated

when

 they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would

lose

 every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."

 The result would be an election method that overcomes the

criticisms

 against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
 organization foolishly tries to defend.

 Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the

addition of

 two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
 advantages
 of STAR voting.

 Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
 interpretation.

 Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
 reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from

what

 the
 FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
 legislature.


 Now I'll discuss a concern.

 I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
 sabotage
 the November referendum.  That might be based on your belief

that the

 FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is

an

 opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.

 Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,

the

 majority of whom want a better election system.  Remember it

would hurt

 Eugene voters too!

 And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we

had to

 vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
 candidate
 Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  The

referendum

 will
 solve that vote-splitting problem.

 In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the

STAR

 voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I used to know

lots of

 people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better

election

 system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)

In fact,

 long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
 "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the mid 1990's,

long

 before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name

"ranked

 choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many

dances

 in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.

Getting

 back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene

voters

 would respond to your initiative.

 The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of

Eugene

 voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
 well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.


 In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November

referendum

 could lead to planet-wide suicide!

 Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the

coursework

 for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
 University.
    Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
 Atmospheric
 Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their

climate

 models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a

very

 bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at

the north

 and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,

which

 increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which

the snow

 and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what motivates me to
 pursue
 election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

 Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will

switch

 governments into climate-relevant action instead of further

delays.

 Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for

Oregon after

 we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon

state

 representatives.  (That's the next step after adopting this
 referendum.)
    (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
 domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)


 In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this

huge

 opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
 civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

 At the national level, higher levels of democracy will

"uncrazify" our

 crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
 leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress who persist

in

 being
 puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

 You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.

You

 pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
 "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method

experts

 could write a well-designed referendum.


 I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding

to

 promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff

voting.

 That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping

of the

 article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him

promoting that

 method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and

heard

 each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state

legislature.  If

 you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open

to

 that
 form of communication.

 While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was

reminded

 that
 Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor

because

 of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al

Mobley as a

 spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would

have been

 a great governor.

 In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system

that, if

 it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,

Dave, in

 spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.


 All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.

 * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need

for

 better ballots.

 * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.

 * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
 candidate at the same preference level.

 * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the

candidate

 with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.


 Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
 building together throughout many years.

 I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as

we take

 advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has

wisely

 given to us.

 We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  Glaciers are
 melting
 faster than elections are being improved.

 Richard Fobes
 The VoteFair guy
 ----
 Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
 <https://electorama.com/em> for list info

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info

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman <michael.garman@rankthevote.us> wrote: > > > Do you have evidence of this? > I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote >> counted whole, & he immediately refused it. >> >> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received >>> FairVote’s advice. >>> >>> Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s >>> strategic trainwreck. >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy < >>>> electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: >>>> >>>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would >>>>> enact >>>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>>> >>>>> YES >>>>> >>>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>>> >>>>> It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit. >>>> >>>> Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada. >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Richard Fobes >>>>> the VoteFair guy >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>>> > VoteFair Guy: >>>>> > >>>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would >>>>> enact >>>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>>> > >>>>> > That’s a yes or no question. >>>>> > >>>>> > Yes or no? >>>>> > >>>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>>> > >>>>> > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”) >>>>> from >>>>> > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a >>>>> > vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you >>>>> say >>>>> > doesn’t have a split-vote problem. >>>>> > >>>>> > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that >>>>> people >>>>> > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of >>>>> > meaning-mystery text. >>>>> > >>>>> > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it >>>>> > would be if were something different from what it is. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy >>>>> > <electionmethods@votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> > >>>>> > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR >>>>> voting >>>>> > promoters. >>>>> > >>>>> > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method >>>>> forum >>>>> > readers: >>>>> > >>>>> > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to >>>>> approve or >>>>> > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing >>>>> > Oregon >>>>> > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon >>>>> secretary of >>>>> > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state >>>>> legislature! >>>>> > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice >>>>> voting >>>>> > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on >>>>> their >>>>> > state's ballots. >>>>> > >>>>> > Here's the full text of the referendum: >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>>> < >>>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. >>>>> Importantly >>>>> > the >>>>> > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also >>>>> importantly it's >>>>> > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the >>>>> future. Also >>>>> > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the >>>>> single-transferable >>>>> > vote >>>>> > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently >>>>> > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. >>>>> > >>>>> > Note: The following "open letter" is long because >>>>> election-method >>>>> > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are >>>>> > involved. >>>>> > >>>>> > ........................ >>>>> > >>>>> > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: >>>>> > >>>>> > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a >>>>> conversation on >>>>> > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the >>>>> > promoters of >>>>> > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. >>>>> > >>>>> > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or >>>>> embarrassing >>>>> > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the >>>>> upcoming >>>>> > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked >>>>> choice >>>>> > voting for some Oregon elections. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have >>>>> > correctly identified relevant information. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting >>>>> > misrepresentations. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big >>>>> source of >>>>> > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene >>>>> voters. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition" >>>>> arguments >>>>> > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene >>>>> voter. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet >>>>> helped >>>>> > defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet: >>>>> > >>>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet >>>>> < >>>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> >>>>> ) >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, >>>>> are >>>>> > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR >>>>> voting >>>>> > was defeated. >>>>> > >>>>> > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully. >>>>> > >>>>> > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy, >>>>> without >>>>> > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the >>>>> huge(!) >>>>> > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice >>>>> ballots are >>>>> > much better than STAR ballots. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the >>>>> > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR >>>>> counting, when >>>>> > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff >>>>> round. Yet >>>>> > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two >>>>> runoff >>>>> > step, which is not what they were criticizing. >>>>> > >>>>> > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your >>>>> > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the >>>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase >>>>> > representation >>>>> > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per >>>>> district >>>>> > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least >>>>> 66 >>>>> > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method >>>>> such as >>>>> > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation >>>>> > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the >>>>> higher >>>>> > level that minorities want, and deserve. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR >>>>> > voting >>>>> > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority >>>>> voter >>>>> > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the >>>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in >>>>> Portland >>>>> > in November to elect our city councilors. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote >>>>> > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, >>>>> is a >>>>> > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other >>>>> claims. >>>>> > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR >>>>> voting >>>>> > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty >>>>> of the >>>>> > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote >>>>> > organization. >>>>> > >>>>> > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting >>>>> wasted lots >>>>> > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the >>>>> above >>>>> > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of >>>>> > summarized >>>>> > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity >>>>> > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among >>>>> friends >>>>> > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed >>>>> strongly, and >>>>> > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is >>>>> conducted >>>>> > as a >>>>> > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the >>>>> > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in >>>>> governmental >>>>> > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by >>>>> exaggerating >>>>> > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 >>>>> and 3. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and >>>>> barriers to >>>>> > collaboration. >>>>> > >>>>> > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting >>>>> against >>>>> > them for three decades. >>>>> > >>>>> > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about >>>>> $2,000 I >>>>> > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement >>>>> from me, >>>>> > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November >>>>> referendum, >>>>> > I will gladly accept their assistance. >>>>> > >>>>> > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my >>>>> name as >>>>> > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will >>>>> agree >>>>> > -- if >>>>> > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote >>>>> > organization >>>>> > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded >>>>> the >>>>> > correct winner. >>>>> > >>>>> > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote >>>>> organization, >>>>> > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are >>>>> needed >>>>> > for >>>>> > election-method reform. >>>>> > >>>>> > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how >>>>> > election-method reform is going to happen. >>>>> > >>>>> > This brings us to the core point in this letter. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the >>>>> same >>>>> > preference level." >>>>> > >>>>> > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules" >>>>> committee >>>>> > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was >>>>> > attempting to >>>>> > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots >>>>> > should be >>>>> > counted. >>>>> > >>>>> > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and >>>>> > because >>>>> > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later >>>>> worked >>>>> > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically >>>>> improved >>>>> > wording that is now in the November referendum. >>>>> > >>>>> > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of >>>>> "overvotes." >>>>> > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for >>>>> > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column. >>>>> > >>>>> > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for >>>>> > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! >>>>> > >>>>> > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by >>>>> the >>>>> > fans of the FairVote organization. >>>>> > >>>>> > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being >>>>> exposed. >>>>> > >>>>> > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first >>>>> statewide >>>>> > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using >>>>> software >>>>> > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." >>>>> > >>>>> > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same >>>>> preference >>>>> > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot >>>>> can be >>>>> > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, >>>>> and >>>>> > one >>>>> > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two >>>>> > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the >>>>> other >>>>> > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal >>>>> numbers >>>>> > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software >>>>> must not >>>>> > use the decimal-number shortcut.) >>>>> > >>>>> > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical >>>>> "overvotes" >>>>> > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded >>>>> election >>>>> > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it >>>>> > certified requires certified data. >>>>> > >>>>> > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls >>>>> this >>>>> > "overvote" issue a "counting detail." >>>>> > >>>>> > Why is this "counting detail" so important? >>>>> > >>>>> > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, >>>>> STAR >>>>> > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of >>>>> instant-runoff >>>>> > voting. >>>>> > >>>>> > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly >>>>> article where >>>>> > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice >>>>> ballots >>>>> > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it >>>>> does not >>>>> > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are >>>>> correctly >>>>> > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get >>>>> to >>>>> > shortly.) >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article: >>>>> > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 >>>>> > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are >>>>> > told to >>>>> > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a >>>>> strongly >>>>> > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not >>>>> as >>>>> > many >>>>> > choice columns as candidates. >>>>> > >>>>> > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, >>>>> election >>>>> > data >>>>> > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will >>>>> undermine >>>>> > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being >>>>> "user >>>>> > unfriendly." >>>>> > >>>>> > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation >>>>> will >>>>> > allow a voter to RATE the candidates. >>>>> > >>>>> > Just like on a score ballot! >>>>> > >>>>> > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark >>>>> will be >>>>> > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR >>>>> ballot! >>>>> > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the >>>>> left-to-right >>>>> > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words >>>>> instead >>>>> > of stars and numbers. >>>>> > >>>>> > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to >>>>> > think in >>>>> > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard >>>>> ratings as >>>>> > more difficult to assign.) >>>>> > >>>>> > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a >>>>> voter >>>>> > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they >>>>> prefer! >>>>> > >>>>> > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is >>>>> allowed by >>>>> > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying >>>>> anything >>>>> > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the >>>>> > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the >>>>> > FairVote organization. >>>>> > >>>>> > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always >>>>> the least >>>>> > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, >>>>> and the >>>>> > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner. >>>>> > >>>>> > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in >>>>> Yee >>>>> > diagrams. >>>>> > >>>>> > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots >>>>> are >>>>> > "user >>>>> > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some >>>>> voters to >>>>> > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the >>>>> fairest >>>>> > ("correct") election result. >>>>> > >>>>> > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" >>>>> will >>>>> > disappear when better election software becomes available. >>>>> > >>>>> > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the >>>>> failures in >>>>> > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like >>>>> STAR >>>>> > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their >>>>> enemy. >>>>> > >>>>> > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way >>>>> that >>>>> > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the >>>>> future. >>>>> > >>>>> > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to >>>>> correct >>>>> > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle >>>>> issue. >>>>> > >>>>> > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to >>>>> > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round >>>>> of >>>>> > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is >>>>> elected; a >>>>> > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every >>>>> > one-on-one >>>>> > contest against every remaining candidate." >>>>> > >>>>> > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice >>>>> Including >>>>> > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added >>>>> words >>>>> > would >>>>> > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated >>>>> when >>>>> > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would >>>>> lose >>>>> > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate." >>>>> > >>>>> > The result would be an election method that overcomes the >>>>> criticisms >>>>> > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote >>>>> > organization foolishly tries to defend. >>>>> > >>>>> > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the >>>>> addition of >>>>> > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method >>>>> > advantages >>>>> > of STAR voting. >>>>> > >>>>> > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this >>>>> > interpretation. >>>>> > >>>>> > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a >>>>> > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from >>>>> what >>>>> > the >>>>> > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon >>>>> > legislature. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Now I'll discuss a concern. >>>>> > >>>>> > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to >>>>> > sabotage >>>>> > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief >>>>> that the >>>>> > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is >>>>> an >>>>> > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative. >>>>> > >>>>> > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, >>>>> the >>>>> > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it >>>>> would hurt >>>>> > Eugene voters too! >>>>> > >>>>> > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we >>>>> had to >>>>> > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent >>>>> > candidate >>>>> > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The >>>>> referendum >>>>> > will >>>>> > solve that vote-splitting problem. >>>>> > >>>>> > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the >>>>> STAR >>>>> > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know >>>>> lots of >>>>> > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better >>>>> election >>>>> > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) >>>>> In fact, >>>>> > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using >>>>> > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's, >>>>> long >>>>> > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name >>>>> "ranked >>>>> > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many >>>>> dances >>>>> > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. >>>>> Getting >>>>> > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene >>>>> voters >>>>> > would respond to your initiative. >>>>> > >>>>> > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of >>>>> Eugene >>>>> > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a >>>>> > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November >>>>> referendum >>>>> > could lead to planet-wide suicide! >>>>> > >>>>> > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the >>>>> coursework >>>>> > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State >>>>> > University. >>>>> > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for >>>>> > Atmospheric >>>>> > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their >>>>> climate >>>>> > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a >>>>> very >>>>> > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at >>>>> the north >>>>> > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, >>>>> which >>>>> > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which >>>>> the snow >>>>> > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to >>>>> > pursue >>>>> > election-method reform with a sense of urgency. >>>>> > >>>>> > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will >>>>> switch >>>>> > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further >>>>> delays. >>>>> > >>>>> > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for >>>>> Oregon after >>>>> > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon >>>>> state >>>>> > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this >>>>> > referendum.) >>>>> > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce >>>>> > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this >>>>> huge >>>>> > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help >>>>> > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. >>>>> > >>>>> > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will >>>>> "uncrazify" our >>>>> > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving >>>>> > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist >>>>> in >>>>> > being >>>>> > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. >>>>> > >>>>> > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. >>>>> You >>>>> > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of >>>>> > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method >>>>> experts >>>>> > could write a well-designed referendum. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding >>>>> to >>>>> > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff >>>>> voting. >>>>> > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping >>>>> of the >>>>> > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him >>>>> promoting that >>>>> > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and >>>>> heard >>>>> > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state >>>>> legislature. If >>>>> > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open >>>>> to >>>>> > that >>>>> > form of communication. >>>>> > >>>>> > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was >>>>> reminded >>>>> > that >>>>> > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor >>>>> because >>>>> > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al >>>>> Mobley as a >>>>> > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would >>>>> have been >>>>> > a great governor. >>>>> > >>>>> > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system >>>>> that, if >>>>> > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, >>>>> Dave, in >>>>> > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of. >>>>> > >>>>> > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need >>>>> for >>>>> > better ballots. >>>>> > >>>>> > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting. >>>>> > >>>>> > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one >>>>> > candidate at the same preference level. >>>>> > >>>>> > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the >>>>> candidate >>>>> > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular. >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been >>>>> > building together throughout many years. >>>>> > >>>>> > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as >>>>> we take >>>>> > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has >>>>> wisely >>>>> > given to us. >>>>> > >>>>> > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are >>>>> > melting >>>>> > faster than elections are being improved. >>>>> > >>>>> > Richard Fobes >>>>> > The VoteFair guy >>>>> > ---- >>>>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em >>>>> > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info >>>>> > >>>>> ---- >>>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for >>>>> list info >>>>> >>>> ---- >> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list >> info >> >
MG
Michael Garman
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 1:24 AM

Oh that’s a shame. Don’t make claims you can’t back up then :D

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 9:23 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman michael.garman@rankthevote.us
wrote:

Do you have evidence of this?

I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.

Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would

enact

allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

YES

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.

If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.

Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.

Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

VoteFair Guy:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would

enact

allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

That’s a yes or no question.

Yes or no?

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)

from

your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of

a

vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a method that

you say

doesn’t have a split-vote problem.

An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that

people

will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.

The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what

it

would be if were something different from what it is.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>

wrote:

 Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to

STAR voting

 promoters.

 Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method

forum

 readers:

 In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to

approve or

 defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for

electing

 Oregon
 governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon

secretary of

 state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon state

legislature!

 This is huge!  All other states that have adopted ranked choice

voting

 have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on

their

 state's ballots.

 Here's the full text of the referendum:
 The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.

Importantly

 the
 words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  Also

importantly it's

 well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the

future.  Also

 it gives explicit permission to later adopt the

single-transferable

 vote
 (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
 adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

 Note:  The following "open letter" is long because

election-method

 reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
 involved.

 ........................

 Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

 The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a

conversation on

 the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
 promoters of
 STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

 These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or

embarrassing

 mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the

upcoming

 statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked

choice

 voting for some Oregon elections.


 I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
 correctly identified relevant information.

 * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
 misrepresentations.

 * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big

source of

 money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene

voters.

 * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.

 * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"

arguments

 in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every

Eugene voter.

 * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet

helped

 defeat the STAR voting initiative.


 (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's

Pamphlet:

 However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR

voting, are

 overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR

voting

 was defeated.

 Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.

 * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,

without

 understanding they are basically just supplying money to the

huge(!)

 number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice

ballots are

 much better than STAR ballots.

 * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
 unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR

counting, when

 a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff

round.  Yet

 your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two

runoff

 step, which is not what they were criticizing.

 * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
 single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does increase
 representation
 for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three seats per

district

 (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least

66

 percent of that district's voters.  Yes, a single-winner method

such as

 STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this

representation

 guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does not reach the

higher

 level that minorities want, and deserve.

 * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support

STAR

 voting
 is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority

voter

 advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  Remember STV will be used in

Portland

 in November to elect our city councilors.

 * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to

vote

 splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,

is a

 lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all your other

claims.

 If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR

voting

 avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty

of the

 same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
 organization.

 * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting

wasted lots

 of words talking about issues that are not as important as the

above

 issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
 summarized
 ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
 criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.


 Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among

friends

 where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed

strongly, and

 where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is

conducted

 as a
 single round of ballot marking and counting.  However the
 strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in

governmental

 elections.  That's because voters get extra influence by

exaggerating

 their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2

and 3.

 Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and

barriers to

 collaboration.

 I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been fighting

against

 them for three decades.

 Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about

$2,000 I

 believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement

from me,

 Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November

referendum,

 I will gladly accept their assistance.

 Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my

name as

 being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will

agree

 -- if
 the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
 organization
 and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded

the

 correct winner.

 I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote

organization,

 and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are

needed

 for
 election-method reform.

 Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is

how

 election-method reform is going to happen.

 This brings us to the core point in this letter.


 "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the

same

 preference level."

 These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"

committee

 several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
 attempting to
 push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
 should be
 counted.

 Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
 because
 of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills

later worked

 with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically

improved

 wording that is now in the November referendum.

 The referendum wording does not contain any mention of

"overvotes."

 This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology

for

 marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.

 This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
 dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

 If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession

by the

 fans of the FairVote organization.

 Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being

exposed.

 The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first

statewide

 Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using

software

 that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

 As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same

preference

 level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot

can be

 paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent

pattern, and

 one
 of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
 candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the

other

 candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting using decimal

numbers

 and rounding down to integers, but certified election software

must not

 use the decimal-number shortcut.)

 The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical

"overvotes"

 is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded

election

 software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, but getting

it

 certified requires certified data.

 The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording

calls this

 "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

 Why is this "counting detail" so important?

 This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,

STAR

 voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of

instant-runoff

 voting.

 Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly

article where

 the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice

ballots

 to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation because it

does not

 apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are

correctly

 counted.  (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get

to

 shortly.)


 (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly article:
 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )


 Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
 told to
 avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to rank a

strongly

 disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are

not as

 many
 choice columns as candidates.

 However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,

election

 data
 will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  That will

undermine

 part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being

"user

 unfriendly."

 Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote"

limitation will

 allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

 Just like on a score ballot!

 This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark

will be

 able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR

ballot!

 They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the

left-to-right

 orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words

instead

 of stars and numbers.

 STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
 think in
 terms of ratings rather than rankings.  (Other voters regard

ratings as

 more difficult to assign.)

 When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots,

a voter

 can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they

prefer!

 To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is

allowed by

 the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying

anything

 about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."


 There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
 promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we disagree with the
 FairVote organization.

 The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always

the least

 popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,

and the

 recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.

 You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in

Yee

 diagrams.

 You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots

are

 "user
 unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can require some

voters to

 mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the

fairest

 ("correct") election result.

 Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user

unfriendliness" will

 disappear when better election software becomes available.

 The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the

failures in

 Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of people like

STAR

 voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their

enemy.

 Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way

that

 makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the

future.

 I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to

correct

 this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this

subtle issue.

 Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
 implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: "If a round

of

 counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is

elected; a

 pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
 one-on-one
 contest against every remaining candidate."

 Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice

Including

 Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method.  In this case the added

words

 would
 say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated

when

 they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who

would lose

 every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."

 The result would be an election method that overcomes the

criticisms

 against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
 organization foolishly tries to defend.

 Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the

addition of

 two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
 advantages
 of STAR voting.

 Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
 interpretation.

 Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
 reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from

what

 the
 FairVote organization originally tried to push through the

Oregon

 legislature.


 Now I'll discuss a concern.

 I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
 sabotage
 the November referendum.  That might be based on your belief

that the

 FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum

is an

 opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.

 Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon

voters, the

 majority of whom want a better election system.  Remember it

would hurt

 Eugene voters too!

 And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which

we had to

 vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
 candidate
 Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  The

referendum

 will
 solve that vote-splitting problem.

 In case it's important, I did not express opposition against

the STAR

 voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I used to know

lots of

 people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better

election

 system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)

In fact,

 long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
 "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the mid

1990's, long

 before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name

"ranked

 choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many

dances

 in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.

Getting

 back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene

voters

 would respond to your initiative.

 The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of

Eugene

 voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
 well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.


 In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November

referendum

 could lead to planet-wide suicide!

 Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the

coursework

 for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
 University.
    Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
 Atmospheric
 Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their

climate

 models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in

a very

 bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at

the north

 and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,

which

 increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which

the snow

 and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what motivates me

to

 pursue
 election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

 Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that

will switch

 governments into climate-relevant action instead of further

delays.

 Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for

Oregon after

 we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our

Oregon state

 representatives.  (That's the next step after adopting this
 referendum.)
    (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
 domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)


 In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this

huge

 opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
 civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

 At the national level, higher levels of democracy will

"uncrazify" our

 crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with

problem-solving

 leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress who persist

in

 being
 puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

 You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.

You

 pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version

of

 "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method

experts

 could write a well-designed referendum.


 I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the

funding to

 promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff

voting.

 That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a

clipping of the

 article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him

promoting that

 method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and

heard

 each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state

legislature.  If

 you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm

open to

 that
 form of communication.

 While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was

reminded

 that
 Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor

because

 of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al

Mobley as a

 spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would

have been

 a great governor.

 In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system

that, if

 it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,

Dave, in

 spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.


 All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.

 * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need

for

 better ballots.

 * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.

 * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
 candidate at the same preference level.

 * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the

candidate

 with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.


 Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have

been

 building together throughout many years.

 I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as

we take

 advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature

has wisely

 given to us.

 We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  Glaciers are
 melting
 faster than elections are being improved.

 Richard Fobes
 The VoteFair guy
 ----
 Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
 <https://electorama.com/em> for list info

Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for
list info


Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info

Oh that’s a shame. Don’t make claims you can’t back up then :D On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 9:23 PM Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 16:41 Michael Garman <michael.garman@rankthevote.us> > wrote: > >> >> >> Do you have evidence of this? >> > > I forgot to tape the phone conversation or file & store the letter > >> >> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 5:06 PM Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each >>> vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it. >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received >>>> FairVote’s advice. >>>> >>>> Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s >>>> strategic trainwreck. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy < >>>>> electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would >>>>>> enact >>>>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>>>> >>>>>> YES >>>>>> >>>>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>>>> >>>>>> It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit. >>>>> >>>>> Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada. >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Richard Fobes >>>>>> the VoteFair guy >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>>>> > VoteFair Guy: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would >>>>>> enact >>>>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > That’s a yes or no question. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Yes or no? >>>>>> > >>>>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”) >>>>>> from >>>>>> > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of >>>>>> a >>>>>> > vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that >>>>>> you say >>>>>> > doesn’t have a split-vote problem. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that >>>>>> people >>>>>> > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of >>>>>> > meaning-mystery text. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what >>>>>> it >>>>>> > would be if were something different from what it is. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy >>>>>> > <electionmethods@votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to >>>>>> STAR voting >>>>>> > promoters. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method >>>>>> forum >>>>>> > readers: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to >>>>>> approve or >>>>>> > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for >>>>>> electing >>>>>> > Oregon >>>>>> > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon >>>>>> secretary of >>>>>> > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state >>>>>> legislature! >>>>>> > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice >>>>>> voting >>>>>> > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on >>>>>> their >>>>>> > state's ballots. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Here's the full text of the referendum: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>>>> < >>>>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. >>>>>> Importantly >>>>>> > the >>>>>> > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also >>>>>> importantly it's >>>>>> > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the >>>>>> future. Also >>>>>> > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the >>>>>> single-transferable >>>>>> > vote >>>>>> > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently >>>>>> > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Note: The following "open letter" is long because >>>>>> election-method >>>>>> > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are >>>>>> > involved. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > ........................ >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a >>>>>> conversation on >>>>>> > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the >>>>>> > promoters of >>>>>> > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or >>>>>> embarrassing >>>>>> > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the >>>>>> upcoming >>>>>> > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked >>>>>> choice >>>>>> > voting for some Oregon elections. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have >>>>>> > correctly identified relevant information. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting >>>>>> > misrepresentations. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big >>>>>> source of >>>>>> > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene >>>>>> voters. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition" >>>>>> arguments >>>>>> > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every >>>>>> Eugene voter. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet >>>>>> helped >>>>>> > defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's >>>>>> Pamphlet: >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet >>>>>> < >>>>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> >>>>>> ) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR >>>>>> voting, are >>>>>> > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR >>>>>> voting >>>>>> > was defeated. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy, >>>>>> without >>>>>> > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the >>>>>> huge(!) >>>>>> > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice >>>>>> ballots are >>>>>> > much better than STAR ballots. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the >>>>>> > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR >>>>>> counting, when >>>>>> > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff >>>>>> round. Yet >>>>>> > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two >>>>>> runoff >>>>>> > step, which is not what they were criticizing. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your >>>>>> > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the >>>>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase >>>>>> > representation >>>>>> > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per >>>>>> district >>>>>> > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least >>>>>> 66 >>>>>> > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method >>>>>> such as >>>>>> > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this >>>>>> representation >>>>>> > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the >>>>>> higher >>>>>> > level that minorities want, and deserve. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support >>>>>> STAR >>>>>> > voting >>>>>> > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority >>>>>> voter >>>>>> > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the >>>>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in >>>>>> Portland >>>>>> > in November to elect our city councilors. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to >>>>>> vote >>>>>> > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, >>>>>> is a >>>>>> > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other >>>>>> claims. >>>>>> > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR >>>>>> voting >>>>>> > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty >>>>>> of the >>>>>> > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote >>>>>> > organization. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting >>>>>> wasted lots >>>>>> > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the >>>>>> above >>>>>> > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of >>>>>> > summarized >>>>>> > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity >>>>>> > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among >>>>>> friends >>>>>> > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed >>>>>> strongly, and >>>>>> > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is >>>>>> conducted >>>>>> > as a >>>>>> > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the >>>>>> > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in >>>>>> governmental >>>>>> > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by >>>>>> exaggerating >>>>>> > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 >>>>>> and 3. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and >>>>>> barriers to >>>>>> > collaboration. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting >>>>>> against >>>>>> > them for three decades. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about >>>>>> $2,000 I >>>>>> > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement >>>>>> from me, >>>>>> > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November >>>>>> referendum, >>>>>> > I will gladly accept their assistance. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my >>>>>> name as >>>>>> > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will >>>>>> agree >>>>>> > -- if >>>>>> > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote >>>>>> > organization >>>>>> > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded >>>>>> the >>>>>> > correct winner. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote >>>>>> organization, >>>>>> > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are >>>>>> needed >>>>>> > for >>>>>> > election-method reform. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is >>>>>> how >>>>>> > election-method reform is going to happen. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > This brings us to the core point in this letter. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the >>>>>> same >>>>>> > preference level." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules" >>>>>> committee >>>>>> > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was >>>>>> > attempting to >>>>>> > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots >>>>>> > should be >>>>>> > counted. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and >>>>>> > because >>>>>> > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills >>>>>> later worked >>>>>> > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically >>>>>> improved >>>>>> > wording that is now in the November referendum. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of >>>>>> "overvotes." >>>>>> > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology >>>>>> for >>>>>> > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for >>>>>> > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! >>>>>> > >>>>>> > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession >>>>>> by the >>>>>> > fans of the FairVote organization. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being >>>>>> exposed. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first >>>>>> statewide >>>>>> > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using >>>>>> software >>>>>> > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same >>>>>> preference >>>>>> > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot >>>>>> can be >>>>>> > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent >>>>>> pattern, and >>>>>> > one >>>>>> > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two >>>>>> > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the >>>>>> other >>>>>> > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal >>>>>> numbers >>>>>> > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software >>>>>> must not >>>>>> > use the decimal-number shortcut.) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical >>>>>> "overvotes" >>>>>> > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded >>>>>> election >>>>>> > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting >>>>>> it >>>>>> > certified requires certified data. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording >>>>>> calls this >>>>>> > "overvote" issue a "counting detail." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Why is this "counting detail" so important? >>>>>> > >>>>>> > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, >>>>>> STAR >>>>>> > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of >>>>>> instant-runoff >>>>>> > voting. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly >>>>>> article where >>>>>> > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice >>>>>> ballots >>>>>> > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it >>>>>> does not >>>>>> > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are >>>>>> correctly >>>>>> > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get >>>>>> to >>>>>> > shortly.) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article: >>>>>> > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 >>>>>> > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are >>>>>> > told to >>>>>> > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a >>>>>> strongly >>>>>> > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are >>>>>> not as >>>>>> > many >>>>>> > choice columns as candidates. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, >>>>>> election >>>>>> > data >>>>>> > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will >>>>>> undermine >>>>>> > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being >>>>>> "user >>>>>> > unfriendly." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" >>>>>> limitation will >>>>>> > allow a voter to RATE the candidates. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Just like on a score ballot! >>>>>> > >>>>>> > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark >>>>>> will be >>>>>> > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR >>>>>> ballot! >>>>>> > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the >>>>>> left-to-right >>>>>> > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words >>>>>> instead >>>>>> > of stars and numbers. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to >>>>>> > think in >>>>>> > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard >>>>>> ratings as >>>>>> > more difficult to assign.) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, >>>>>> a voter >>>>>> > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they >>>>>> prefer! >>>>>> > >>>>>> > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is >>>>>> allowed by >>>>>> > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying >>>>>> anything >>>>>> > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the >>>>>> > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the >>>>>> > FairVote organization. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always >>>>>> the least >>>>>> > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, >>>>>> and the >>>>>> > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in >>>>>> Yee >>>>>> > diagrams. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots >>>>>> are >>>>>> > "user >>>>>> > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some >>>>>> voters to >>>>>> > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the >>>>>> fairest >>>>>> > ("correct") election result. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user >>>>>> unfriendliness" will >>>>>> > disappear when better election software becomes available. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the >>>>>> failures in >>>>>> > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like >>>>>> STAR >>>>>> > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their >>>>>> enemy. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way >>>>>> that >>>>>> > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the >>>>>> future. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to >>>>>> correct >>>>>> > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this >>>>>> subtle issue. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to >>>>>> > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round >>>>>> of >>>>>> > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is >>>>>> elected; a >>>>>> > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every >>>>>> > one-on-one >>>>>> > contest against every remaining candidate." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice >>>>>> Including >>>>>> > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added >>>>>> words >>>>>> > would >>>>>> > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated >>>>>> when >>>>>> > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who >>>>>> would lose >>>>>> > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The result would be an election method that overcomes the >>>>>> criticisms >>>>>> > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote >>>>>> > organization foolishly tries to defend. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the >>>>>> addition of >>>>>> > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method >>>>>> > advantages >>>>>> > of STAR voting. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this >>>>>> > interpretation. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a >>>>>> > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from >>>>>> what >>>>>> > the >>>>>> > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the >>>>>> Oregon >>>>>> > legislature. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Now I'll discuss a concern. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to >>>>>> > sabotage >>>>>> > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief >>>>>> that the >>>>>> > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum >>>>>> is an >>>>>> > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon >>>>>> voters, the >>>>>> > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it >>>>>> would hurt >>>>>> > Eugene voters too! >>>>>> > >>>>>> > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which >>>>>> we had to >>>>>> > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent >>>>>> > candidate >>>>>> > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The >>>>>> referendum >>>>>> > will >>>>>> > solve that vote-splitting problem. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against >>>>>> the STAR >>>>>> > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know >>>>>> lots of >>>>>> > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better >>>>>> election >>>>>> > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) >>>>>> In fact, >>>>>> > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using >>>>>> > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid >>>>>> 1990's, long >>>>>> > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name >>>>>> "ranked >>>>>> > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many >>>>>> dances >>>>>> > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. >>>>>> Getting >>>>>> > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene >>>>>> voters >>>>>> > would respond to your initiative. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of >>>>>> Eugene >>>>>> > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a >>>>>> > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November >>>>>> referendum >>>>>> > could lead to planet-wide suicide! >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the >>>>>> coursework >>>>>> > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State >>>>>> > University. >>>>>> > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for >>>>>> > Atmospheric >>>>>> > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their >>>>>> climate >>>>>> > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in >>>>>> a very >>>>>> > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at >>>>>> the north >>>>>> > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, >>>>>> which >>>>>> > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which >>>>>> the snow >>>>>> > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me >>>>>> to >>>>>> > pursue >>>>>> > election-method reform with a sense of urgency. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that >>>>>> will switch >>>>>> > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further >>>>>> delays. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for >>>>>> Oregon after >>>>>> > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our >>>>>> Oregon state >>>>>> > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this >>>>>> > referendum.) >>>>>> > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce >>>>>> > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this >>>>>> huge >>>>>> > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help >>>>>> > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will >>>>>> "uncrazify" our >>>>>> > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with >>>>>> problem-solving >>>>>> > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist >>>>>> in >>>>>> > being >>>>>> > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. >>>>>> You >>>>>> > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version >>>>>> of >>>>>> > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method >>>>>> experts >>>>>> > could write a well-designed referendum. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the >>>>>> funding to >>>>>> > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff >>>>>> voting. >>>>>> > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a >>>>>> clipping of the >>>>>> > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him >>>>>> promoting that >>>>>> > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and >>>>>> heard >>>>>> > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state >>>>>> legislature. If >>>>>> > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm >>>>>> open to >>>>>> > that >>>>>> > form of communication. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was >>>>>> reminded >>>>>> > that >>>>>> > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor >>>>>> because >>>>>> > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al >>>>>> Mobley as a >>>>>> > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would >>>>>> have been >>>>>> > a great governor. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system >>>>>> that, if >>>>>> > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, >>>>>> Dave, in >>>>>> > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need >>>>>> for >>>>>> > better ballots. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one >>>>>> > candidate at the same preference level. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the >>>>>> candidate >>>>>> > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have >>>>>> been >>>>>> > building together throughout many years. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as >>>>>> we take >>>>>> > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature >>>>>> has wisely >>>>>> > given to us. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are >>>>>> > melting >>>>>> > faster than elections are being improved. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Richard Fobes >>>>>> > The VoteFair guy >>>>>> > ---- >>>>>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em >>>>>> > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info >>>>>> > >>>>>> ---- >>>>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for >>>>>> list info >>>>>> >>>>> ---- >>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list >>> info >>> >>
CL
Closed Limelike Curves
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 3:19 AM
  • Every cardinal/rating method I know of is vulnerable to what used to

be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance.

Expressed another way ...

I'm very interested in fleshing this out a bit more. In some situations,
this is the main drawback of score voting; min-maxing means your ballot
expresses less information than a full ranking and produces worse results
than most Condorcet methods. But in other situations, this is a huge
strength of rated voting that I think we really need to keep.

The place where this is bad is the zero-information setting. True zero-info
almost never exists, but low-information settings crop up if you have a
sincere Condorcet cycle, several clones, or a nonpartisan local election.
In these settings, it would be very nice to have voters be perfectly honest.

The place where this is good is in the high-information setting where
voters follow the polls, or know . Then, every "sensible" voting method
will encourage exaggeration: if you rank or rate the best frontrunner at
the top, this maximizes your support for them, and therefore your impact on
the election. Similarly, ranking or rating a candidate last minimizes your
support for them.

The only difference in the case of cardinal/rating methods is you can do
this without being forced to engage in order-reversal. This is a big
f*cking deal. Lots of voters will refuse to engage in decapitation
to protect a Condorcet winner (e.g. Begich in Alaska): it's
counterintuitive, makes voters feel icky, and reduces their favorite
candidate's shot at winning. Even if they were willing, this kind of
dishonest order-reversal strategy can make it impossible to identify the
sincere Condorcet winner. ("Hmm, is RFK Jr. trailing because of the brain
worm or the major parties burying him?")

In high-information situations, this kind of approval-thresholding is the
least-damaging kind of strategy:

  1. It's simple and obvious, so parties can't manipulate voters by lying.
  2. It has a single stable equilibrium point, so you don't need money or
    party endorsements to prove you're a viable candidate.
  3. It's sincere, so it lets you identify the Condorcet-winner and the
    Condorcet runner-up.
  4. It guarantees that if voters follow the polls, they'll choose the
    Condorcet winner.

So, I suppose my real question is: is there any voting system that
satisfies both properties? Sincere favorite and later-no-help are enough
for voters who follow good polls to work out the Condorcet winner, by
making min-maxing the optimal strategy. On the other hand, I don't know if
they're necessary or if they're compatible with honesty in the
zero-information case.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 10:34 AM Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:

First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? ...

Multiple reasons.  Here are a few:

  • Lots of voters, including me, have difficulty thinking in terms of
    ratings for governmental elections.  Even movie ratings are head
    scratchers for me.  If I enjoyed a movie I give it 5 stars, if I hated a
    comedy movie that didn't even make me smile I give it 1 star, if I hated
    a movie with a bad plot and bad acting I give it 1 star, sometimes I'll
    give a movie 4 stars, otherwise I don't rate it because I can't decide
    how I should rate it.  Especially if the flaw was my failure to
    recognize that it's a kind of movie I don't like (such as thriller,
    horror, etc.) but which other people would like.

  • Although star ratings on Amazon and movies are very familiar, it's the
    calculated overall ratings that are familiar.  When someone chooses how
    to rate a product or movie, lots of us don't know how to rate it in a
    way that really summarizes that we like some aspects and dislike other
    aspects.

  • Every cardinal/rating method I know of is vulnerable to what used to
    be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance.
    Expressed another way ...

  • Rating methods are vulnerable to what I'm calling the "clapping
    tactic."  In a talent/costume contest where the winner is based on the
    loudness of clapping, I get extra influence by just pretending to clap
    -- with no sound -- for the contestants I don't want to win.  Of course
    I clap loudly for the one or two contestants I want to win.  Of course
    this would become approval voting if everyone did it.

  • It's easy for me to mark a ranked choice ballot.  That's because I can
    easily recognize which candidate I like better between any two
    candidates.  If I can't decide which I like better, I rank them the same
    -- if the ballot instructions don't tell me to avoid mythical "overvotes."

  • Ranked choice ballots can be marked as a rating ballot -- IF the same
    choice column can be marked more than once.  It's just FairVote's
    primitive idea of ignoring "overvotes" that prevents a voter from
    "rating" two candidates the same on a ranked choice ballot.  In
    contrast, a rating ballot cannot be marked as a ranked choice ballot
    without losing influence that's available by skipping some choice columns.

Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their
ratings, I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but
not other systems that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant
strategy in score, but STAR isn't score, and the runoff
prevents this.

The top-two runoff in STAR just modifies the exaggeration tactic.  In
Score the tactic is to only mark the highest and lowest ratings.  In
STAR, a simple tactic is to avoid marking level 2 and level 3.  This
allows the voter to have influence during the runoff if the runoff is
between their level zero and level 1 candidates, and it provides
influence between the voter's level 4 and level 5 candidates.

More sophisticated marking tactics become available to an organization
(to recommend to their members) by hiring pollsters plus vote-counting
experts such as those of us who participate in this E-M forum.  This
strategizing doesn't work if ranked choice ballots are used with a good
counting method.

Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR.

I too "have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR."

STAR fans are claiming that IRV is vulnerable to vote splitting!

They do not offer any evidence to support this claim.  Even in the
scholarly article by Quinn, Wolk, & Ogren, they present this implied
association without any evidence.  Nor does the article suggest what
they want the words "vote splitting" to mean.

My question is, how can IRV be vulnerable to vote splitting without STAR
also being vulnerable to vote splitting?  (Humor warning; That's
splitting hairs!)

Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation
algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms.

Why didn't they advocate STAR-PR for electing Eugene city council members?

That's what minorities and women want.  And employees would like it for
fighting against money-backed employers.  And tenants would like it for
fighting against money-backed landlords.

Instead the STAR initiative was to continue with single-winner
elections.  Ten years ago this single-winner reform would have been a
worthwhile reform.  Now, with Portland already having adopted STV
starting with this year's November election, single-winner methods are
becoming recognized as obsolete for city councils and, hopefully soon,
state legislatures.

Thank you for your questions!

Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy

On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:

Hi Richard! You might want to shorten this :) I skimmed it, but I might
have missed a few things. I have some questions.

First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? I really
doubt ballot design is the most important part of a reform proposal.
From what I can tell, there's a lot of research showing spoiled ballots
are much more common when ranking, even if you allow equal-ratings.
Ranked ballots still allow for skipped ranks and voters who misinterpret
ranks as ratings. There's a huge spike in the number of spoiled ballots
when you have 4 or 5 candidates, because people mistake the rankings for
a 1-4 or 1-5 scale. (And lots of cities use cumulative voting for city
councils, making things more confusing!)

Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their ratings,
I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but not other systems
that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant strategy in score, but STAR
isn't score, and the runoff prevents this.

Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR.
Spoiler effects, sure, because STAR fails IIA. But I think of
vote-splitting as meaning clone-negativity (whereas STAR is
intentionally a bit clone-positive, to encourage parties to run at least
2 candidates).

Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation
algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 5:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>

wrote:

 Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR

voting

 promoters.

 Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method forum
 readers:

 In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to approve or
 defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
 Oregon
 governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon secretary of
 state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon state legislature!
 This is huge!  All other states that have adopted ranked choice

voting

 have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
 state's ballots.

 Here's the full text of the referendum:
 The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.  Importantly
 the
 words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  Also importantly

it's

 well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the future.

Also

 it gives explicit permission to later adopt the single-transferable
 vote
 (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
 adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

 Note:  The following "open letter" is long because election-method
 reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
 involved.

 ........................

 Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

 The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a conversation

on

 the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
 promoters of
 STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

 These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or

embarrassing

 mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the upcoming
 statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
 voting for some Oregon elections.


 I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
 correctly identified relevant information.

 * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
 misrepresentations.

 * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big source

of

 money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene voters.

 * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.

 * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"

arguments

 in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene

voter.

 * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet helped
 defeat the STAR voting initiative.


 (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
 However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, are
 overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR

voting

 was defeated.

 Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.

 * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,

without

 understanding they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
 number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
 much better than STAR ballots.

 * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
 unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR counting,

when

 a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff round.

Yet

 your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two runoff
 step, which is not what they were criticizing.

 * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
 single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does increase
 representation
 for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three seats per

district

 (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
 percent of that district's voters.  Yes, a single-winner method such

as

 STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
 guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does not reach the

higher

 level that minorities want, and deserve.

 * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
 voting
 is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority voter
 advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  Remember STV will be used in

Portland

 in November to elect our city councilors.

 * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
 splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, is a
 lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all your other claims.
 If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR voting
 avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of the
 same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
 organization.

 * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting wasted

lots

 of words talking about issues that are not as important as the above
 issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
 summarized
 ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
 criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.


 Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among

friends

 where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed strongly,

and

 where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is conducted
 as a
 single round of ballot marking and counting.  However the
 strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in

governmental

 elections.  That's because voters get extra influence by exaggerating
 their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and 3.


 Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers to
 collaboration.

 I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been fighting against
 them for three decades.

 Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about $2,000

I

 believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement from

me,

 Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November

referendum,

 I will gladly accept their assistance.

 Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my name as
 being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
 -- if
 the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
 organization
 and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
 correct winner.

 I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote

organization,

 and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are needed
 for
 election-method reform.

 Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
 election-method reform is going to happen.

 This brings us to the core point in this letter.


 "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
 preference level."

 These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"

committee

 several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
 attempting to
 push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
 should be
 counted.

 Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
 because
 of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later

worked

 with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically

improved

 wording that is now in the November referendum.

 The referendum wording does not contain any mention of "overvotes."
 This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
 marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.

 This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
 dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

 If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by the
 fans of the FairVote organization.

 Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being exposed.

 The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first statewide
 Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using software
 that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

 As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same

preference

 level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot can be
 paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, and
 one
 of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
 candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the other
 candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting using decimal

numbers

 and rounding down to integers, but certified election software must

not

 use the decimal-number shortcut.)

 The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical

"overvotes"

 is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded

election

 software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, but getting it
 certified requires certified data.

 The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls this
 "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

 Why is this "counting detail" so important?

 This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, STAR
 voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of instant-runoff
 voting.

 Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article

where

 the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice

ballots

 to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation because it does

not

 apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are correctly
 counted.  (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
 shortly.)


 (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly article:
 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )


 Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
 told to
 avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to rank a strongly
 disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not as
 many
 choice columns as candidates.

 However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, election
 data
 will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  That will undermine
 part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being "user
 unfriendly."

 Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation will
 allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

 Just like on a score ballot!

 This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark will

be

 able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR ballot!
 They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the left-to-right
 orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words

instead

 of stars and numbers.

 STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
 think in
 terms of ratings rather than rankings.  (Other voters regard ratings

as

 more difficult to assign.)

 When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a

voter

 can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they prefer!

 To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is allowed by
 the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying

anything

 about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."


 There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
 promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we disagree with the
 FairVote organization.

 The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the

least

 popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, and

the

 recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.

 You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
 diagrams.

 You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
 "user
 unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can require some voters

to

 mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the

fairest

 ("correct") election result.

 Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" will
 disappear when better election software becomes available.

 The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the failures

in

 Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of people like STAR
 voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their enemy.

 Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way that
 makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the future.

 I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to

correct

 this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle

issue.

 Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
 implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: "If a round of
 counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is

elected; a

 pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
 one-on-one
 contest against every remaining candidate."

 Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice

Including

 Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method.  In this case the added words
 would
 say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated when
 they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would lose
 every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."

 The result would be an election method that overcomes the criticisms
 against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
 organization foolishly tries to defend.

 Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the addition of
 two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
 advantages
 of STAR voting.

 Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
 interpretation.

 Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
 reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from what
 the
 FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
 legislature.


 Now I'll discuss a concern.

 I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
 sabotage
 the November referendum.  That might be based on your belief that the
 FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is an
 opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.

 Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, the
 majority of whom want a better election system.  Remember it would

hurt

 Eugene voters too!

 And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we had

to

 vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
 candidate
 Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  The referendum
 will
 solve that vote-splitting problem.

 In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the STAR
 voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I used to know lots of
 people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
 system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)  In

fact,

 long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
 "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the mid 1990's, long
 before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name

"ranked

 choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many

dances

 in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.  Getting
 back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene voters
 would respond to your initiative.

 The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of Eugene
 voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
 well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.


 In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November referendum
 could lead to planet-wide suicide!

 Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the

coursework

 for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
 University.
    Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
 Atmospheric
 Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their climate
 models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a very
 bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the

north

 and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, which
 increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the

snow

 and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what motivates me to
 pursue
 election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

 Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will

switch

 governments into climate-relevant action instead of further delays.

 Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon

after

 we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon

state

 representatives.  (That's the next step after adopting this
 referendum.)
    (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
 domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)


 In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this huge
 opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
 civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

 At the national level, higher levels of democracy will "uncrazify"

our

 crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
 leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
 being
 puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

 You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.  You
 pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
 "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method experts
 could write a well-designed referendum.


 I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding to
 promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff voting.
 That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping of

the

 article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him promoting

that

 method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and heard
 each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state legislature.

If

 you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open to
 that
 form of communication.

 While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was reminded
 that
 Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor

because

 of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al Mobley

as a

 spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would have

been

 a great governor.

 In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system that,

if

 it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, Dave,

in

 spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.


 All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.

 * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need for
 better ballots.

 * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.

 * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
 candidate at the same preference level.

 * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the candidate
 with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.


 Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
 building together throughout many years.

 I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as we

take

 advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has

wisely

 given to us.

 We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  Glaciers are
 melting
 faster than elections are being improved.

 Richard Fobes
 The VoteFair guy
 ----
 Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
 <https://electorama.com/em> for list info

Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info

> > * Every cardinal/rating method I know of is vulnerable to what used to > be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance. > Expressed another way ... > I'm very interested in fleshing this out a bit more. In some situations, this is the main drawback of score voting; min-maxing means your ballot expresses less information than a full ranking and produces worse results than most Condorcet methods. But in other situations, this is a huge strength of rated voting that I think we really need to keep. The place where this is bad is the zero-information setting. True zero-info almost never exists, but low-information settings crop up if you have a sincere Condorcet cycle, several clones, or a nonpartisan local election. In these settings, it would be very nice to have voters be perfectly honest. The place where this is good is in the high-information setting where voters follow the polls, or know . Then, every "sensible" voting method will encourage exaggeration: if you rank or rate the best frontrunner at the top, this maximizes your support for them, and therefore your impact on the election. Similarly, ranking or rating a candidate last minimizes your support for them. The only difference in the case of cardinal/rating methods is you can do this without being forced to engage in order-reversal. This is a big f*cking deal. Lots of voters will refuse to engage in decapitation to protect a Condorcet winner (e.g. Begich in Alaska): it's counterintuitive, makes voters feel icky, and reduces their favorite candidate's shot at winning. Even if they *were* willing, this kind of dishonest order-reversal strategy can make it impossible to identify the sincere Condorcet winner. ("Hmm, is RFK Jr. trailing because of the brain worm or the major parties burying him?") In high-information situations, this kind of approval-thresholding is the least-damaging kind of strategy: 1. It's simple and obvious, so parties can't manipulate voters by lying. 2. It has a single stable equilibrium point, so you don't need money or party endorsements to prove you're a viable candidate. 3. It's sincere, so it lets you identify the Condorcet-winner and the Condorcet runner-up. 4. It guarantees that if voters follow the polls, they'll choose the Condorcet winner. So, I suppose my real question is: is there any voting system that satisfies both properties? Sincere favorite and later-no-help are enough for voters who follow good polls to work out the Condorcet winner, by making min-maxing the optimal strategy. On the other hand, I don't know if they're necessary or if they're compatible with honesty in the zero-information case. On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 10:34 AM Richard, the VoteFair guy < electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: > On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote: > > First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? ... > > Multiple reasons. Here are a few: > > * Lots of voters, including me, have difficulty thinking in terms of > ratings for governmental elections. Even movie ratings are head > scratchers for me. If I enjoyed a movie I give it 5 stars, if I hated a > comedy movie that didn't even make me smile I give it 1 star, if I hated > a movie with a bad plot and bad acting I give it 1 star, sometimes I'll > give a movie 4 stars, otherwise I don't rate it because I can't decide > how I should rate it. Especially if the flaw was my failure to > recognize that it's a kind of movie I don't like (such as thriller, > horror, etc.) but which other people would like. > > * Although star ratings on Amazon and movies are very familiar, it's the > calculated overall ratings that are familiar. When someone chooses how > to rate a product or movie, lots of us don't know how to rate it in a > way that really summarizes that we like some aspects and dislike other > aspects. > > * Every cardinal/rating method I know of is vulnerable to what used to > be called a "drama queen" meaning someone who exaggerates importance. > Expressed another way ... > > * Rating methods are vulnerable to what I'm calling the "clapping > tactic." In a talent/costume contest where the winner is based on the > loudness of clapping, I get extra influence by just pretending to clap > -- with no sound -- for the contestants I don't want to win. Of course > I clap loudly for the one or two contestants I want to win. Of course > this would become approval voting if everyone did it. > > * It's easy for me to mark a ranked choice ballot. That's because I can > easily recognize which candidate I like better between any two > candidates. If I can't decide which I like better, I rank them the same > -- if the ballot instructions don't tell me to avoid mythical "overvotes." > > * Ranked choice ballots can be marked as a rating ballot -- IF the same > choice column can be marked more than once. It's just FairVote's > primitive idea of ignoring "overvotes" that prevents a voter from > "rating" two candidates the same on a ranked choice ballot. In > contrast, a rating ballot cannot be marked as a ranked choice ballot > without losing influence that's available by skipping some choice columns. > > > > Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their > > ratings, I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but > > not other systems that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant > > strategy in score, but STAR isn't score, and the runoff > > prevents this. > > The top-two runoff in STAR just modifies the exaggeration tactic. In > Score the tactic is to only mark the highest and lowest ratings. In > STAR, a simple tactic is to avoid marking level 2 and level 3. This > allows the voter to have influence during the runoff if the runoff is > between their level zero and level 1 candidates, and it provides > influence between the voter's level 4 and level 5 candidates. > > More sophisticated marking tactics become available to an organization > (to recommend to their members) by hiring pollsters plus vote-counting > experts such as those of us who participate in this E-M forum. This > strategizing doesn't work if ranked choice ballots are used with a good > counting method. > > > > Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR. > > I too "have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR." > > STAR fans are claiming that IRV is vulnerable to vote splitting! > > They do not offer any evidence to support this claim. Even in the > scholarly article by Quinn, Wolk, & Ogren, they present this implied > association without any evidence. Nor does the article suggest what > they want the words "vote splitting" to mean. > > My question is, how can IRV be vulnerable to vote splitting without STAR > also being vulnerable to vote splitting? (Humor warning; That's > splitting hairs!) > > > > Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation > > algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms. > > Why didn't they advocate STAR-PR for electing Eugene city council members? > > That's what minorities and women want. And employees would like it for > fighting against money-backed employers. And tenants would like it for > fighting against money-backed landlords. > > Instead the STAR initiative was to continue with single-winner > elections. Ten years ago this single-winner reform would have been a > worthwhile reform. Now, with Portland already having adopted STV > starting with this year's November election, single-winner methods are > becoming recognized as obsolete for city councils and, hopefully soon, > state legislatures. > > > Thank you for your questions! > > Richard Fobes > the VoteFair guy > > > > On 6/3/2024 7:00 PM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote: > > Hi Richard! You might want to shorten this :) I skimmed it, but I might > > have missed a few things. I have some questions. > > > > First: why are you so fiercely opposed to using rated ballots? I really > > doubt ballot design is the most important part of a reform proposal. > > From what I can tell, there's a lot of research showing spoiled ballots > > are much more common when ranking, even if you allow equal-ratings. > > Ranked ballots still allow for skipped ranks and voters who misinterpret > > ranks as ratings. There's a huge spike in the number of spoiled ballots > > when you have 4 or 5 candidates, because people mistake the rankings for > > a 1-4 or 1-5 scale. (And lots of cities use cumulative voting for city > > councils, making things more confusing!) > > > > Second: if your complaint is that voters might exaggerate their ratings, > > I don't see why this would be applicable to STAR, but not other systems > > that allow equal-rankings. It's a dominant strategy in score, but STAR > > isn't score, and the runoff prevents this. > > > > Third: I have no idea how vote-splitting would be a thing in STAR. > > Spoiler effects, sure, because STAR fails IIA. But I think of > > vote-splitting as meaning clone-negativity (whereas STAR is > > intentionally a bit clone-positive, to encourage parties to run at least > > 2 candidates). > > > > Finally: Equal Vote Coalition promotes proportional representation > > algorithms like STAR-PR as well as single-winner reforms. > > > > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 5:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy > > <electionmethods@votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> > wrote: > > > > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR > voting > > promoters. > > > > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method forum > > readers: > > > > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to approve or > > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing > > Oregon > > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon secretary of > > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state legislature! > > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice > voting > > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their > > state's ballots. > > > > Here's the full text of the referendum: > > > > > https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled > < > https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled > > > > > > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. Importantly > > the > > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also importantly > it's > > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the future. > Also > > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the single-transferable > > vote > > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently > > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. > > > > Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method > > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are > > involved. > > > > ........................ > > > > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: > > > > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a conversation > on > > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the > > promoters of > > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. > > > > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or > embarrassing > > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the upcoming > > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice > > voting for some Oregon elections. > > > > > > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have > > correctly identified relevant information. > > > > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting > > misrepresentations. > > > > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big source > of > > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene voters. > > > > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative. > > > > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition" > arguments > > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene > voter. > > > > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet helped > > defeat the STAR voting initiative. > > > > > > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet: > > > https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet < > https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> > ) > > > > > > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, are > > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR > voting > > was defeated. > > > > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully. > > > > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy, > without > > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!) > > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are > > much better than STAR ballots. > > > > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the > > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR counting, > when > > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff round. > Yet > > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two runoff > > step, which is not what they were criticizing. > > > > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your > > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the > > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase > > representation > > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per > district > > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66 > > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method such > as > > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation > > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the > higher > > level that minorities want, and deserve. > > > > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR > > voting > > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority voter > > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the > > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in > Portland > > in November to elect our city councilors. > > > > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote > > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, is a > > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other claims. > > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR voting > > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of the > > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote > > organization. > > > > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting wasted > lots > > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the above > > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of > > summarized > > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity > > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. > > > > > > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among > friends > > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed strongly, > and > > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is conducted > > as a > > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the > > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in > governmental > > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by exaggerating > > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and 3. > > > > > > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers to > > collaboration. > > > > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting against > > them for three decades. > > > > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about $2,000 > I > > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement from > me, > > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November > referendum, > > I will gladly accept their assistance. > > > > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my name as > > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree > > -- if > > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote > > organization > > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the > > correct winner. > > > > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote > organization, > > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are needed > > for > > election-method reform. > > > > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how > > election-method reform is going to happen. > > > > This brings us to the core point in this letter. > > > > > > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same > > preference level." > > > > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules" > committee > > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was > > attempting to > > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots > > should be > > counted. > > > > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and > > because > > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later > worked > > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically > improved > > wording that is now in the November referendum. > > > > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of "overvotes." > > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for > > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column. > > > > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for > > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! > > > > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by the > > fans of the FairVote organization. > > > > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being exposed. > > > > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first statewide > > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using software > > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." > > > > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same > preference > > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot can be > > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, and > > one > > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two > > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the other > > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal > numbers > > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software must > not > > use the decimal-number shortcut.) > > > > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical > "overvotes" > > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded > election > > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it > > certified requires certified data. > > > > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls this > > "overvote" issue a "counting detail." > > > > Why is this "counting detail" so important? > > > > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, STAR > > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of instant-runoff > > voting. > > > > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article > where > > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice > ballots > > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it does > not > > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are correctly > > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to > > shortly.) > > > > > > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article: > > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 > > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) > > > > > > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are > > told to > > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a strongly > > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not as > > many > > choice columns as candidates. > > > > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, election > > data > > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will undermine > > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being "user > > unfriendly." > > > > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation will > > allow a voter to RATE the candidates. > > > > Just like on a score ballot! > > > > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark will > be > > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR ballot! > > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the left-to-right > > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words > instead > > of stars and numbers. > > > > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to > > think in > > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard ratings > as > > more difficult to assign.) > > > > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a > voter > > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they prefer! > > > > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is allowed by > > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying > anything > > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." > > > > > > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the > > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the > > FairVote organization. > > > > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the > least > > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, and > the > > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner. > > > > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee > > diagrams. > > > > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are > > "user > > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some voters > to > > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the > fairest > > ("correct") election result. > > > > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" will > > disappear when better election software becomes available. > > > > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the failures > in > > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like STAR > > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their enemy. > > > > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way that > > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the future. > > > > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to > correct > > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle > issue. > > > > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to > > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of > > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is > elected; a > > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every > > one-on-one > > contest against every remaining candidate." > > > > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice > Including > > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words > > would > > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated when > > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would lose > > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate." > > > > The result would be an election method that overcomes the criticisms > > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote > > organization foolishly tries to defend. > > > > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the addition of > > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method > > advantages > > of STAR voting. > > > > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this > > interpretation. > > > > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a > > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from what > > the > > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon > > legislature. > > > > > > Now I'll discuss a concern. > > > > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to > > sabotage > > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that the > > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is an > > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative. > > > > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, the > > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it would > hurt > > Eugene voters too! > > > > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we had > to > > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent > > candidate > > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The referendum > > will > > solve that vote-splitting problem. > > > > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the STAR > > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know lots of > > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election > > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In > fact, > > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using > > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's, long > > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name > "ranked > > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many > dances > > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. Getting > > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene voters > > would respond to your initiative. > > > > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of Eugene > > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a > > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots. > > > > > > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November referendum > > could lead to planet-wide suicide! > > > > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the > coursework > > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State > > University. > > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for > > Atmospheric > > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their climate > > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a very > > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the > north > > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, which > > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the > snow > > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to > > pursue > > election-method reform with a sense of urgency. > > > > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will > switch > > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further delays. > > > > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon > after > > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon > state > > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this > > referendum.) > > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce > > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) > > > > > > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this huge > > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help > > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. > > > > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will "uncrazify" > our > > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving > > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in > > being > > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. > > > > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You > > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of > > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method experts > > could write a well-designed referendum. > > > > > > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding to > > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff voting. > > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping of > the > > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him promoting > that > > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and heard > > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state legislature. > If > > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open to > > that > > form of communication. > > > > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was reminded > > that > > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor > because > > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al Mobley > as a > > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would have > been > > a great governor. > > > > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system that, > if > > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, Dave, > in > > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate. > > > > > > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of. > > > > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need for > > better ballots. > > > > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting. > > > > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one > > candidate at the same preference level. > > > > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the candidate > > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular. > > > > > > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been > > building together throughout many years. > > > > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as we > take > > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has > wisely > > given to us. > > > > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are > > melting > > faster than elections are being improved. > > > > Richard Fobes > > The VoteFair guy > > ---- > > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em > > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info > > > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list > info >
CB
Chris Benham
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 8:18 AM

Mike,

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole)
method is garbage.

Unlike proper Hare/STV  ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third.
From a May 2014 EM post of mine:

The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable
Mutual Dominant Third.

"I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that,
"Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT):

If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on
more than a third of the ballots, and if all the S
candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.

This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is
invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy.

ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT).

05 A=C
31 A>B
34 B>A
30 C>B

B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is
the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A."

Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a
majority stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any
difference, but in the ER(whole) version it does.

Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy:

"On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote:

45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B)
35 B>A
20 C>B

B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is
ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins.

(This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say,
49/48/3)."

With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In
this example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the
first round.

With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like
Bucklin).  That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority
stopping rule with a Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when
the leading candidate's score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise
opposition score from any remaining candidate.

The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's  simple
sincere zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method
the voter should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would
approve if the method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest.

Chris B.

On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each
vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

 Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already
 received FairVote’s advice.

 Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of
 IRV’s strategic trainwreck.


 On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff
 <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote:



     On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy
     <electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

         On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
          > Are you saying that the IRV that the November
         referendum would enact
          > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

         YES

          > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal
         ranking?

         It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning
         anything about it.



     If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee
     shit.

     Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.



         Richard Fobes
         the VoteFair guy


         On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

   VoteFair Guy:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November

         referendum would enact

allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

That’s a yes or no question.

Yes or no?

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal

         ranking?

Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point

         (“vote”) from

your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little

         fraction of a

vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a

         method that you say

doesn’t have a split-vote problem.

An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I

         doubt that people

will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.

The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the

         referendum as what it

would be if were something different from what it is.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org

         <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> wrote:

     Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open

         letter to STAR voting

     promoters.

     Here's some background info for the benefit of

         election-method forum

     readers:

     In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will

         vote to approve or

     defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting

         for electing

     Oregon
     governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the

         Oregon secretary of

     state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon

         state legislature!

     This is huge!  All other states that have adopted

         ranked choice voting

     have needed to gather signatures to get their

         initiatives on their

     state's ballots.

     Here's the full text of the referendum:

         https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
         <https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled>

     The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section

         4.  Importantly

     the
     words do not mention anything about "overvotes." 

         Also importantly it's

     well-worded so the counting details can be refined

         in the future.  Also

     it gives explicit permission to later adopt the

         single-transferable

     vote
     (STV) for electing city-council members (which

         Portland recently

     adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

     Note:  The following "open letter" is long because

         election-method

     reform is not a simple topic, and numerous

         misunderstandings are

     involved.

     ........................

     Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

     The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered

         a conversation on

     the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from

         you, the

     promoters of
     STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

     These misunderstandings easily could lead to

         expensive or embarrassing

     mistakes regarding support for, or opposition

         against, the upcoming

     statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt

         ranked choice

     voting for some Oregon elections.

     I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting

         promoters, have

     correctly identified relevant information.

     * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history

         of promoting

     misrepresentations.

     * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization

         was a big source of

     money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed

         to Eugene voters.

     * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting

         initiative.

     * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for

         "opposition" arguments

     in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to

         every Eugene voter.

     * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's

         pamphlet helped

     defeat the STAR voting initiative.

     (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene

         Voter's Pamphlet:
         https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
         <https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
         )

     However, I get the impression you, the promoters of

         STAR voting, are

     overlooking the most important issues that account

         for why STAR voting

     was defeated.

     Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more

         carefully.

     * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is

         your enemy, without

     understanding they are basically just supplying

         money to the huge(!)

     number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked

         choice ballots are

     much better than STAR ballots.

     * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet

         pointed out the

     unfairness of score voting during the first step of

         STAR counting, when

     a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the

         runoff round.  Yet

     your rebuttals about majority support focused on the

         top-two runoff

     step, which is not what they were criticizing.

     * You seem to dismiss the important difference

         between your

     single-winner method and a good multi-winner method

         such as the

     single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does

         increase

     representation
     for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three

         seats per district

     (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation

         for at least 66

     percent of that district's voters. Yes, a

         single-winner method such as

     STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this

         representation

     guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does

         not reach the higher

     level that minorities want, and deserve.

     * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who

         support STAR

     voting
     is a weak defense against the attacks from the

         many(!) minority voter

     advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
     single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be

         used in Portland

     in November to elect our city councilors.

     * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is

         vulnerable to vote

     splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote

         splitting, is a

     lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all

         your other claims.

     If you try to define "vote splitting" as something

         that STAR voting

     avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you

         are guilty of the

     same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the

         FairVote

     organization.

     * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR

         voting wasted lots

     of words talking about issues that are not as

         important as the above

     issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include

         the size of

     summarized
     ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the

         monotonicity

     criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.

     Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed

         for use among friends

     where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be

         expressed strongly, and

     where selfish people can be excluded, and where

         voting is conducted

     as a
     single round of ballot marking and counting. 

         However the

     strength-of-expression advantage becomes a

         disadvantage in governmental

     elections.  That's because voters get extra

         influence by exaggerating

     their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at

         levels 2 and 3.

     Now let's talk about possible future collaborations,

         and barriers to

     collaboration.

     I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been

         fighting against

     them for three decades.

     Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the

         fee (about $2,000 I

     believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a

         statement from me,

     Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the

         November referendum,

     I will gladly accept their assistance.

     Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission

         to use my name as

     being in support of the upcoming November

         referendum, I will agree

     -- if
     the promotion does not imply blind support for the

         FairVote

     organization
     and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska

         elections yielded the

     correct winner.

     I'm open to this collaboration because they, the

         FairVote organization,

     and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE

         BALLOTS are needed

     for
     election-method reform.

     Reaching areas of agreement, and working in

         collaboration, is how

     election-method reform is going to happen.

     This brings us to the core point in this letter.

     "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more

         candidates at the same

     preference level."

     These are the words I spoke to the Oregon

         legislative "rules" committee

     several years ago, back when the FairVote

         organization was

     attempting to
     push their flawed idea of how they think ranked

         choice ballots

     should be
     counted.

     Because of your testimony against that flawed

         FairVote bill, and

     because
     of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these

         bills later worked

     with Oregon election-method experts to create the

         dramatically improved

     wording that is now in the November referendum.

     The referendum wording does not contain any mention

         of "overvotes."

     This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's

         terminology for

     marking two or more candidates in the same choice

         column.

     This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take

         credit for

     dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

     If you want, you can think of this refinement as a

         concession by the

     fans of the FairVote organization.

     Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is

         finally being exposed.

     The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have

         the first statewide

     Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can

         be using software

     that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

     As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at

         the same preference

     level, and when the counting reaches that pattern,

         that ballot can be

     paired with another ballot that has the same

         equivalent pattern, and

     one
     of those two ballots is counted as support for one

         of those two

     candidates, and the other ballot is counted as

         support for the other

     candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting

         using decimal numbers

     and rounding down to integers, but certified

         election software must not

     use the decimal-number shortcut.)

     The remaining barrier to this correct counting of

         mythical "overvotes"

     is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which

         upgraded election

     software can be tested.  Writing software is easy,

         but getting it

     certified requires certified data.

     The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum

         wording calls this

     "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

     Why is this "counting detail" so important?

     This software refinement eliminates a valid

         criticism that you, STAR

     voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of

         instant-runoff

     voting.

     Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR

         scholarly article where

     the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent

         ranked choice ballots

     to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation

         because it does not

     apply to ranked choice voting when mythical

         "overvotes" are correctly

     counted.  (There's another related user-friendly

         issue I'll get to

     shortly.)

     (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly

         article:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
     https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 )

     Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply

         when voters are

     told to
     avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to

         rank a strongly

     disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and

         there are not as

     many
     choice columns as candidates.

     However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted

         correctly, election

     data
     will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. 

         That will undermine

     part of your characterization of ranked choice

         ballots as being "user

     unfriendly."

     Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no

         "overvote" limitation will

     allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

     Just like on a score ballot!

     This means the voters who think STAR ballots are

         easier to mark will be

     able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it

         were a STAR ballot!

     They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse

         the left-to-right

     orientation difference -- and ignore the column

         labels -- words instead

     of stars and numbers.

     STAR voting fans correctly point out that some

         people prefer to

     think in
     terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters

         regard ratings as

     more difficult to assign.)

     When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked

         choice ballots, a voter

     can use either a rating or ranking approach,

         whichever they prefer!

     To repeat, this correct counting of so-called

         overvotes is allowed by

     the wording in November's referendum because it

         avoids saying anything

     about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."

     There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy,

         and you, the

     promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we

         disagree with the

     FairVote organization.

     The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is

         not always the least

     popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington

         mayoral election, and the

     recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong

         winner.

     You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy

         to see in Yee

     diagrams.

     You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked

         choice ballots are

     "user
     unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can

         require some voters to

     mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely)

         to get the fairest

     ("correct") election result.

     Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user

         unfriendliness" will

     disappear when better election software becomes

         available.

     The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to

         defend the failures in

     Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of

         people like STAR

     voting, and why they regard the FairVote

         organization as their enemy.

     Fortunately the referendum wording is written

         clearly, in a way that

     makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw

         in the future.

     I believe that adding just two sentences might be

         sufficient to correct

     this flaw in a few years when more voters understand

         this subtle issue.

     Specifically, the referendum's counting method can

         be changed to

     implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as:

         "If a round of

     counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that

         candidate is elected; a

     pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would

         win every

     one-on-one
     contest against every remaining candidate."

     Or, the wording can be changed to implement the

         Ranked Choice Including

     Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case

         the added words

     would
     say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are

         eliminated when

     they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a

         candidate who would lose

     every one-on-one contest against every remaining

         candidate."

     The result would be an election method that

         overcomes the criticisms

     against the version of instant-runoff voting that

         the FairVote

     organization foolishly tries to defend.

     Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can,

         with the addition of

     two sentences, yield all the most significant

         election-method

     advantages
     of STAR voting.

     Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not

         welcome this

     interpretation.

     Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
     reasonably-well-designed method that significantly

         differs from what

     the
     FairVote organization originally tried to push

         through the Oregon

     legislature.

     Now I'll discuss a concern.

     I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters,

         might try to

     sabotage
     the November referendum.  That might be based on

         your belief that the

     FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this

         referendum is an

     opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene

         initiative.

     Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all

         Oregon voters, the

     majority of whom want a better election system. 

         Remember it would hurt

     Eugene voters too!

     And remember the last election for Oregon's governor

         in which we had to

     vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of

         independent

     candidate
     Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. 

         The referendum

     will
     solve that vote-splitting problem.

     In case it's important, I did not express opposition

         against the STAR

     voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I

         used to know lots of

     people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a

         better election

     system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than

         plurality.)  In fact,

     long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need

         to be using

     "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the

         mid 1990's, long

     before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long

         before the name "ranked

     choice voting" was introduced, and back when I

         attended so many dances

     in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived

         there.  Getting

     back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see

         how Eugene voters

     would respond to your initiative.

     The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge

         number of Eugene

     voters correctly recognize that ranked choice

         ballots, with a

     well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR

         ballots.

     In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the

         November referendum

     could lead to planet-wide suicide!

     Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did

         all the coursework

     for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at

         Oregon State

     University.
        Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National

         Center for

     Atmospheric
     Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one

         of their climate

     models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our

         planet is in a very

     bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice

         coverage at the north

     and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back

         into space, which

     increases solar absorption, which increases the rate

         at which the snow

     and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what

         motivates me to

     pursue
     election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

     Adopting a better election system is the tipping

         point that will switch

     governments into climate-relevant action instead of

         further delays.

     Plus it will dramatically increase economic

         prosperity for Oregon after

     we adopt a well-designed election system for

         electing our Oregon state

     representatives.  (That's the next step after

         adopting this

     referendum.)
        (And consider that better economic prosperity

         will reduce

     domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)

     In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is

         giving us this huge

     opportunity to implement election-method reform that

         will help

     civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

     At the national level, higher levels of democracy

         will "uncrazify" our

     crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with

         problem-solving

     leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress

         who persist in

     being
     puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

     You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make

         this happen.  You

     pushed back against the FairVote organization's

         flawed version of

     "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon

         election-method experts

     could write a well-designed referendum.

     I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of

         the funding to

     promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of

         instant-runoff voting.

     That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent

         me a clipping of the

     article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about

         him promoting that

     method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I

         have seen and heard

     each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon

         state legislature.  If

     you should want to meet via video to ask any

         questions, I'm open to

     that
     form of communication.

     While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer

         I was reminded

     that
     Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become

         Oregon governor because

     of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful

         funding to Al Mobley as a

     spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave

         Frohnmayer would have been

     a great governor.

     In November we have an opportunity to adopt an

         election system that, if

     it had been used back then, would have elected

         Mark's father, Dave, in

     spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler

         candidate.

     All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be

         proud of.

     * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters

         about the need for

     better ballots.

     * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote

         splitting.

     * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark

         more than one

     candidate at the same preference level.

     * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie

         that the candidate

     with the fewest transferred votes is always least

         popular.

     Let's build on the election-method reform foundation

         we have been

     building together throughout many years.

     I look forward to working with you, rather than

         against you, as we take

     advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon

         legislature has wisely

     given to us.

     We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. 

         Glaciers are

     melting
     faster than elections are being improved.

     Richard Fobes
     The VoteFair guy
     ----
     Election-Methods mailing list - see

         https://electorama.com/em

     https://electorama.com/em for list info

         ----
         Election-Methods mailing list - see
         https://electorama.com/em for list info

Election-Methods mailing list - seehttps://electorama.com/em  for list info

Mike, > In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each > vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it. And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole) method is garbage. Unlike proper Hare/STV  ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third. From a May 2014 EM post of mine: The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable Mutual Dominant Third. "I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that, "Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT): *If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on more than a third of the ballots, and if all the S candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.* This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy. ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT). 05 A=C 31 A>B 34 B>A 30 C>B B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A." Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a majority stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any difference, but in the ER(whole) version it does. Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy: "On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote: 45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B) 35 B>A 20 C>B B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins. (This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say, 49/48/3)." With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In this example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the first round. With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like Bucklin).  That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority stopping rule with a Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when the leading candidate's score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise opposition score from any remaining candidate. The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's  simple sincere zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method the voter should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would approve if the method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest. Chris B. On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote: > In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each > vote counted whole, & he immediately refused it. > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> > wrote: > > Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already > received FairVote’s advice. > > Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of > IRV’s strategic trainwreck. > > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff > <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy > <electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: > > On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >  > Are you saying that the IRV that the November > referendum would enact >  > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. > > YES > >  > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal > ranking? > > It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning > anything about it. > > > > If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee > shit. > > Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada. > > > > Richard Fobes > the VoteFair guy > > > On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: > >   VoteFair Guy: > > > > Are you saying that the IRV that the  November > referendum would enact > > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. > > > > That’s a yes or no question. > > > > Yes or no? > > > > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal > ranking? > > > > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point > (“vote”) from > > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little > fraction of a > > vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a > method that you say > > doesn’t have a split-vote problem. > > > > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I > doubt that people > > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of > > meaning-mystery text. > > > > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the > referendum as what it > > would be if were something different from what it is. > > > > > > > > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy > > <electionmethods@votefair.org > <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> wrote: > > > >     Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open > letter to STAR voting > >     promoters. > > > >     Here's some background info for the benefit of > election-method forum > >     readers: > > > >     In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will > vote to approve or > >     defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting > for electing > >     Oregon > >     governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the > Oregon secretary of > >     state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon > state legislature! > >     This is huge!  All other states that have adopted > ranked choice voting > >     have needed to gather signatures to get their > initiatives on their > >     state's ballots. > > > >     Here's the full text of the referendum: > > > > > https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled > <https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled> > > > >     The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section > 4.  Importantly > >     the > >     words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  > Also importantly it's > >     well-worded so the counting details can be refined > in the future.  Also > >     it gives explicit permission to later adopt the > single-transferable > >     vote > >     (STV) for electing city-council members (which > Portland recently > >     adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. > > > >     Note:  The following "open letter" is long because > election-method > >     reform is not a simple topic, and numerous > misunderstandings are > >     involved. > > > >     ........................ > > > >     Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: > > > >     The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered > a conversation on > >     the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from > you, the > >     promoters of > >     STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. > > > >     These misunderstandings easily could lead to > expensive or embarrassing > >     mistakes regarding support for, or opposition > against, the upcoming > >     statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt > ranked choice > >     voting for some Oregon elections. > > > > > >     I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting > promoters, have > >     correctly identified relevant information. > > > >     * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history > of promoting > >     misrepresentations. > > > >     * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization > was a big source of > >     money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed > to Eugene voters. > > > >     * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting > initiative. > > > >     * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for > "opposition" arguments > >     in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to > every Eugene voter. > > > >     * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's > pamphlet helped > >     defeat the STAR voting initiative. > > > > > >     (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene > Voter's Pamphlet: > > > https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet > <https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> > ) > > > > > >     However, I get the impression you, the promoters of > STAR voting, are > >     overlooking the most important issues that account > for why STAR voting > >     was defeated. > > > >     Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more > carefully. > > > >     * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is > your enemy, without > >     understanding they are basically just supplying > money to the huge(!) > >     number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked > choice ballots are > >     much better than STAR ballots. > > > >     * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet > pointed out the > >     unfairness of score voting during the first step of > STAR counting, when > >     a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the > runoff round.  Yet > >     your rebuttals about majority support focused on the > top-two runoff > >     step, which is not what they were criticizing. > > > >     * You seem to dismiss the important difference > between your > >     single-winner method and a good multi-winner method > such as the > >     single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does > increase > >     representation > >     for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three > seats per district > >     (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation > for at least 66 > >     percent of that district's voters. Yes, a > single-winner method such as > >     STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this > representation > >     guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does > not reach the higher > >     level that minorities want, and deserve. > > > >     * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who > support STAR > >     voting > >     is a weak defense against the attacks from the > many(!) minority voter > >     advocates in Portland who have been learning about the > >     single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be > used in Portland > >     in November to elect our city councilors. > > > >     * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is > vulnerable to vote > >     splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote > splitting, is a > >     lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all > your other claims. > >     If you try to define "vote splitting" as something > that STAR voting > >     avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you > are guilty of the > >     same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the > FairVote > >     organization. > > > >     * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR > voting wasted lots > >     of words talking about issues that are not as > important as the above > >     issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include > the size of > >     summarized > >     ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the > monotonicity > >     criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. > > > > > >     Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed > for use among friends > >     where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be > expressed strongly, and > >     where selfish people can be excluded, and where > voting is conducted > >     as a > >     single round of ballot marking and counting.  > However the > >     strength-of-expression advantage becomes a > disadvantage in governmental > >     elections.  That's because voters get extra > influence by exaggerating > >     their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at > levels 2 and 3. > > > > > >     Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, > and barriers to > >     collaboration. > > > >     I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been > fighting against > >     them for three decades. > > > >     Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the > fee (about $2,000 I > >     believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a > statement from me, > >     Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the > November referendum, > >     I will gladly accept their assistance. > > > >     Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission > to use my name as > >     being in support of the upcoming November > referendum, I will agree > >     -- if > >     the promotion does not imply blind support for the > FairVote > >     organization > >     and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska > elections yielded the > >     correct winner. > > > >     I'm open to this collaboration because they, the > FairVote organization, > >     and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE > BALLOTS are needed > >     for > >     election-method reform. > > > >     Reaching areas of agreement, and working in > collaboration, is how > >     election-method reform is going to happen. > > > >     This brings us to the core point in this letter. > > > > > >     "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more > candidates at the same > >     preference level." > > > >     These are the words I spoke to the Oregon > legislative "rules" committee > >     several years ago, back when the FairVote > organization was > >     attempting to > >     push their flawed idea of how they think ranked > choice ballots > >     should be > >     counted. > > > >     Because of your testimony against that flawed > FairVote bill, and > >     because > >     of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these > bills later worked > >     with Oregon election-method experts to create the > dramatically improved > >     wording that is now in the November referendum. > > > >     The referendum wording does not contain any mention > of "overvotes." > >     This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's > terminology for > >     marking two or more candidates in the same choice > column. > > > >     This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take > credit for > >     dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! > > > >     If you want, you can think of this refinement as a > concession by the > >     fans of the FairVote organization. > > > >     Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is > finally being exposed. > > > >     The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have > the first statewide > >     Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can > be using software > >     that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." > > > >     As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at > the same preference > >     level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, > that ballot can be > >     paired with another ballot that has the same > equivalent pattern, and > >     one > >     of those two ballots is counted as support for one > of those two > >     candidates, and the other ballot is counted as > support for the other > >     candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting > using decimal numbers > >     and rounding down to integers, but certified > election software must not > >     use the decimal-number shortcut.) > > > >     The remaining barrier to this correct counting of > mythical "overvotes" > >     is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which > upgraded election > >     software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, > but getting it > >     certified requires certified data. > > > >     The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum > wording calls this > >     "overvote" issue a "counting detail." > > > >     Why is this "counting detail" so important? > > > >     This software refinement eliminates a valid > criticism that you, STAR > >     voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of > instant-runoff > >     voting. > > > >     Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR > scholarly article where > >     the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent > ranked choice ballots > >     to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation > because it does not > >     apply to ranked choice voting when mythical > "overvotes" are correctly > >     counted.  (There's another related user-friendly > issue I'll get to > >     shortly.) > > > > > >     (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly > article: > > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 > >     <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) > > > > > >     Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply > when voters are > >     told to > >     avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to > rank a strongly > >     disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and > there are not as > >     many > >     choice columns as candidates. > > > >     However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted > correctly, election > >     data > >     will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  > That will undermine > >     part of your characterization of ranked choice > ballots as being "user > >     unfriendly." > > > >     Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no > "overvote" limitation will > >     allow a voter to RATE the candidates. > > > >     Just like on a score ballot! > > > >     This means the voters who think STAR ballots are > easier to mark will be > >     able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it > were a STAR ballot! > >     They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse > the left-to-right > >     orientation difference -- and ignore the column > labels -- words instead > >     of stars and numbers. > > > >     STAR voting fans correctly point out that some > people prefer to > >     think in > >     terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters > regard ratings as > >     more difficult to assign.) > > > >     When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked > choice ballots, a voter > >     can use either a rating or ranking approach, > whichever they prefer! > > > >     To repeat, this correct counting of so-called > overvotes is allowed by > >     the wording in November's referendum because it > avoids saying anything > >     about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." > > > > > >     There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, > and you, the > >     promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we > disagree with the > >     FairVote organization. > > > >     The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is > not always the least > >     popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington > mayoral election, and the > >     recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong > winner. > > > >     You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy > to see in Yee > >     diagrams. > > > >     You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked > choice ballots are > >     "user > >     unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can > require some voters to > >     mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) > to get the fairest > >     ("correct") election result. > > > >     Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user > unfriendliness" will > >     disappear when better election software becomes > available. > > > >     The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to > defend the failures in > >     Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of > people like STAR > >     voting, and why they regard the FairVote > organization as their enemy. > > > >     Fortunately the referendum wording is written > clearly, in a way that > >     makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw > in the future. > > > >     I believe that adding just two sentences might be > sufficient to correct > >     this flaw in a few years when more voters understand > this subtle issue. > > > >     Specifically, the referendum's counting method can > be changed to > >     implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: > "If a round of > >     counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that > candidate is elected; a > >     pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would > win every > >     one-on-one > >     contest against every remaining candidate." > > > >     Or, the wording can be changed to implement the > Ranked Choice Including > >     Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case > the added words > >     would > >     say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are > eliminated when > >     they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a > candidate who would lose > >     every one-on-one contest against every remaining > candidate." > > > >     The result would be an election method that > overcomes the criticisms > >     against the version of instant-runoff voting that > the FairVote > >     organization foolishly tries to defend. > > > >     Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, > with the addition of > >     two sentences, yield all the most significant > election-method > >     advantages > >     of STAR voting. > > > >     Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not > welcome this > >     interpretation. > > > >     Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a > >     reasonably-well-designed method that significantly > differs from what > >     the > >     FairVote organization originally tried to push > through the Oregon > >     legislature. > > > > > >     Now I'll discuss a concern. > > > >     I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, > might try to > >     sabotage > >     the November referendum.  That might be based on > your belief that the > >     FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this > referendum is an > >     opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene > initiative. > > > >     Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all > Oregon voters, the > >     majority of whom want a better election system.  > Remember it would hurt > >     Eugene voters too! > > > >     And remember the last election for Oregon's governor > in which we had to > >     vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of > independent > >     candidate > >     Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  > The referendum > >     will > >     solve that vote-splitting problem. > > > >     In case it's important, I did not express opposition > against the STAR > >     voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I > used to know lots of > >     people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a > better election > >     system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than > plurality.)  In fact, > >     long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need > to be using > >     "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the > mid 1990's, long > >     before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long > before the name "ranked > >     choice voting" was introduced, and back when I > attended so many dances > >     in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived > there.  Getting > >     back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see > how Eugene voters > >     would respond to your initiative. > > > >     The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge > number of Eugene > >     voters correctly recognize that ranked choice > ballots, with a > >     well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR > ballots. > > > > > >     In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the > November referendum > >     could lead to planet-wide suicide! > > > >     Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did > all the coursework > >     for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at > Oregon State > >     University. > >        Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National > Center for > >     Atmospheric > >     Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one > of their climate > >     models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our > planet is in a very > >     bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice > coverage at the north > >     and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back > into space, which > >     increases solar absorption, which increases the rate > at which the snow > >     and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what > motivates me to > >     pursue > >     election-method reform with a sense of urgency. > > > >     Adopting a better election system is the tipping > point that will switch > >     governments into climate-relevant action instead of > further delays. > > > >     Plus it will dramatically increase economic > prosperity for Oregon after > >     we adopt a well-designed election system for > electing our Oregon state > >     representatives.  (That's the next step after > adopting this > >     referendum.) > >        (And consider that better economic prosperity > will reduce > >     domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) > > > > > >     In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is > giving us this huge > >     opportunity to implement election-method reform that > will help > >     civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. > > > >     At the national level, higher levels of democracy > will "uncrazify" our > >     crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with > problem-solving > >     leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress > who persist in > >     being > >     puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. > > > >     You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make > this happen.  You > >     pushed back against the FairVote organization's > flawed version of > >     "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon > election-method experts > >     could write a well-designed referendum. > > > > > >     I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of > the funding to > >     promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of > instant-runoff voting. > >     That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent > me a clipping of the > >     article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about > him promoting that > >     method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I > have seen and heard > >     each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon > state legislature.  If > >     you should want to meet via video to ask any > questions, I'm open to > >     that > >     form of communication. > > > >     While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer > I was reminded > >     that > >     Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become > Oregon governor because > >     of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful > funding to Al Mobley as a > >     spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave > Frohnmayer would have been > >     a great governor. > > > >     In November we have an opportunity to adopt an > election system that, if > >     it had been used back then, would have elected > Mark's father, Dave, in > >     spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler > candidate. > > > > > >     All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be > proud of. > > > >     * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters > about the need for > >     better ballots. > > > >     * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote > splitting. > > > >     * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark > more than one > >     candidate at the same preference level. > > > >     * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie > that the candidate > >     with the fewest transferred votes is always least > popular. > > > > > >     Let's build on the election-method reform foundation > we have been > >     building together throughout many years. > > > >     I look forward to working with you, rather than > against you, as we take > >     advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon > legislature has wisely > >     given to us. > > > >     We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  > Glaciers are > >     melting > >     faster than elections are being improved. > > > >     Richard Fobes > >     The VoteFair guy > >     ---- > >     Election-Methods mailing list - see > https://electorama.com/em > >     <https://electorama.com/em> for list info > > > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see > https://electorama.com/em for list info > > > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - seehttps://electorama.com/em for list info
CB
Chris Benham
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 12:55 PM

Robert,

What do you think of  Adam Tarr's old idea of using  A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?

He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and  Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.

I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.

Chris B.

On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote:

On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote:

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:

they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.

Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots.

Not for governmental elections.  Elections are not about utility.  Not utilitarian.  We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics.  When we vote, we don't have to be "fair to the other side".

We vote to best serve our own political interests.  It's a battle of sorts.  They call them "campaigns".

They are easier to fill out.

That's horseshit.  Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over the others, but then they have to figure out how much they prefer that candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or lesser evil) higher or lower.  In any Cardinal system and whenever there are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates), the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate.  Score them too high and you hurt your favorite.  Score too low and you help your greater evil.

You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with zero evidence.  And it doesn't even make common sense.

They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference.

Yes.  And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans.  And the timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that expression.

And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring.  How much expression is there?  The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is related to how many levels of scoring is there.  More levels, more expressivity.  Why not have 100 levels?  My vote for Candidate Whoever is the sqrt(3).  Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity?

There is the Paradox of Choice problem.  At some point, more degree of choice makes it harder to choose.

They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5 for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc.

Ordinal ballots stay the same, too.

This whole thing is just baloney:  Claim followed by claim followed by claim.  Nothing really backing it up.

--

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

.
.
.

Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info

Robert, What do you think of  Adam Tarr's old idea of using  A-B-C--D-E-F "grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C grades as Approval? He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is Smith//Approval and  Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others. I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as their exact ones. Chris B. On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote: > >> On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote: >> >> >> On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote: >>> they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!) >>> number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are >>> much better than STAR ballots. >> Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots. > Not for governmental elections. Elections are not about utility. Not utilitarian. We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics. When we vote, we don't have to be "fair to the other side". > > We vote to best serve our own political interests. It's a battle of sorts. They call them "campaigns". > >> They are easier to fill out. > That's horseshit. Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over the others, but then they have to figure out *how* *much* they prefer that candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or lesser evil) higher or lower. In any Cardinal system and whenever there are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates), the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate. Score them too high and you hurt your favorite. Score too low and you help your greater evil. > > You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with ***zero*** evidence. And it doesn't even make common sense. > >> They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference. > Yes. And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans. And the timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that expression. > > And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring. How much expression is there? The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is related to how many levels of scoring is there. More levels, more expressivity. Why not have 100 levels? My vote for Candidate Whoever is the sqrt(3). Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity? > > There is the Paradox of Choice problem. At some point, more degree of choice makes it **harder** to choose. > >> They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5 for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc. > Ordinal ballots stay the same, too. > > This whole thing is just baloney: Claim followed by claim followed by claim. Nothing really backing it up. > > > -- > > r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com > > "Imagination is more important than knowledge." > > . > . > . > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 2:52 PM

On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 01:18 Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:

Mike,

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole)
method is garbage.

Maybe. Probably. …but it was suggested because it’s better garbage than
ordinary IRV.

I wouldn’t advocate garbage, but I suggested that garbage to Richie because
it’s a “Lesser-Of-2-Garbages”.

At least it avoids IRV’s worst.

[I don’t have any comments farther down in the text. It’s easier to say
that than to delete the unreplied text.]

Unlike proper Hare/STV  ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third.
From a May 2014 EM post of mine:

The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable
Mutual Dominant Third.

"I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that,
"Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT):

If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on more
than a third of the ballots, and if all the S
candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.

This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is
invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy.

ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT).

05 A=C
31 A>B
34 B>A
30 C>B

B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is
the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A."

Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a majority
stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any difference, but in
the ER(whole) version it does.

Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy:

"On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote:

45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B)
35 B>A
20 C>B

B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is
ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins.

(This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say,
49/48/3)."

With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In this
example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the first round.

With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like Bucklin).
That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority stopping rule with a
Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when the leading candidate's
score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise opposition score from any
remaining candidate.

The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's  simple sincere
zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method the voter
should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would approve if the
method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest.

Chris B.

On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
FairVote’s advice.

Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
strategic trainwreck.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote:

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

YES

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.

If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.

Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.

Richard Fobes
the VoteFair guy

On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

VoteFair Guy:

Are you saying that the IRV that the  November referendum would enact
allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.

That’s a yes or no question.

Yes or no?

…&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?

Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”)

from

your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
vote divided among them?  …You know, split-vote in a method that you

say

doesn’t have a split-vote problem.

An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that

people

will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
meaning-mystery text.

The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
would be if were something different from what it is.

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
<electionmethods@votefair.org mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>

wrote:

 Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR

voting

 promoters.

 Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method

forum

 readers:

 In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to

approve or

 defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
 Oregon
 governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon

secretary of

 state).  This referendum was passed by the Oregon state

legislature!

 This is huge!  All other states that have adopted ranked choice

voting

 have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
 state's ballots.

 Here's the full text of the referendum:
 The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.

Importantly

 the
 words do not mention anything about "overvotes."  Also

importantly it's

 well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the

future.  Also

 it gives explicit permission to later adopt the

single-transferable

 vote
 (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
 adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.

 Note:  The following "open letter" is long because election-method
 reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
 involved.

 ........................

 Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:

 The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a

conversation on

 the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
 promoters of
 STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.

 These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or

embarrassing

 mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the

upcoming

 statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
 voting for some Oregon elections.


 I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
 correctly identified relevant information.

 * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
 misrepresentations.

 * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big

source of

 money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene

voters.

 * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.

 * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"

arguments

 in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene

voter.

 * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet

helped

 defeat the STAR voting initiative.


 (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
 However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,

are

 overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR

voting

 was defeated.

 Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.

 * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,

without

 understanding they are basically just supplying money to the

huge(!)

 number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots

are

 much better than STAR ballots.

 * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
 unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR

counting, when

 a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff

round.  Yet

 your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two

runoff

 step, which is not what they were criticizing.

 * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
 single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  STV really does increase
 representation
 for minorities, women, etc.  In fact STV with three seats per

district

 (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
 percent of that district's voters.  Yes, a single-winner method

such as

 STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
 guarantee from zero to 50 percent.  But that does not reach the

higher

 level that minorities want, and deserve.

 * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
 voting
 is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority

voter

 advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
 single-transferable vote (STV).  Remember STV will be used in

Portland

 in November to elect our city councilors.

 * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
 splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting,

is a

 lie.  This lie undermines your credibility for all your other

claims.

 If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR

voting

 avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of

the

 same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
 organization.

 * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting

wasted lots

 of words talking about issues that are not as important as the

above

 issues.  In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
 summarized
 ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
 criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.


 Clarification:  Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among

friends

 where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed

strongly, and

 where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is

conducted

 as a
 single round of ballot marking and counting.  However the
 strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in

governmental

 elections.  That's because voters get extra influence by

exaggerating

 their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and
 Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers

to

 collaboration.

 I too dislike the FairVote organization.  I've been fighting

against

 them for three decades.

 Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about

$2,000 I

 believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement

from me,

 Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November

referendum,

 I will gladly accept their assistance.

 Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my

name as

 being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
 -- if
 the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
 organization
 and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
 correct winner.

 I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote

organization,

 and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are

needed

 for
 election-method reform.

 Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
 election-method reform is going to happen.

 This brings us to the core point in this letter.


 "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
 preference level."

 These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"

committee

 several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
 attempting to
 push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
 should be
 counted.

 Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
 because
 of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later

worked

 with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically

improved

 wording that is now in the November referendum.

 The referendum wording does not contain any mention of

"overvotes."

 This is huge!  Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
 marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.

 This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
 dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!

 If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by

the

 fans of the FairVote organization.

 Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being

exposed.

 The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first

statewide

 Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using

software

 that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."

 As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same

preference

 level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot

can be

 paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,

and

 one
 of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
 candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the

other

 candidate.  (Software can simulate this counting using decimal

numbers

 and rounding down to integers, but certified election software

must not

 use the decimal-number shortcut.)

 The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical

"overvotes"

 is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded

election

 software can be tested.  Writing software is easy, but getting it
 certified requires certified data.

 The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls

this

 "overvote" issue a "counting detail."

 Why is this "counting detail" so important?

 This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,

STAR

 voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of

instant-runoff

 voting.

 Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article

where

 the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice

ballots

 to be "user unfriendly."  It's a misrepresentation because it

does not

 apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are

correctly

 counted.  (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
 shortly.)


 (E-M forum aside:  Here's a link to that scholarly article:
 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )


 Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
 told to
 avoid "overvotes."  Especially when a voter wants to rank a

strongly

 disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not

as

 many
 choice columns as candidates.

 However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly,

election

 data
 will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots.  That will

undermine

 part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being

"user

 unfriendly."

 Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation

will

 allow a voter to RATE the candidates.

 Just like on a score ballot!

 This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark

will be

 able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR

ballot!

 They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the

left-to-right

 orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words

instead

 of stars and numbers.

 STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
 think in
 terms of ratings rather than rankings.  (Other voters regard

ratings as

 more difficult to assign.)

 When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a

voter

 can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they

prefer!

 To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is

allowed by

 the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying

anything

 about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."


 There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
 promoters of STAR voting, agree.  And where we disagree with the
 FairVote organization.

 The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the

least

 popular.  This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,

and the

 recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.

 You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
 diagrams.

 You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
 "user
 unfriendly."  Specifically a close election can require some

voters to

 mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the

fairest

 ("correct") election result.

 Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"

will

 disappear when better election software becomes available.

 The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the

failures in

 Burlington and Alaska.  This is part of why lots of people like

STAR

 voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their

enemy.

 Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way

that

 makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the

future.

 I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to

correct

 this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle

issue.

 Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
 implement Benham's method.  Just add words such as: "If a round of
 counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is

elected; a

 pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
 one-on-one
 contest against every remaining candidate."

 Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice

Including

 Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method.  In this case the added words
 would
 say something like:  "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated

when

 they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would

lose

 every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."

 The result would be an election method that overcomes the

criticisms

 against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
 organization foolishly tries to defend.

 Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the

addition of

 two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
 advantages
 of STAR voting.

 Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
 interpretation.

 Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
 reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from

what

 the
 FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
 legislature.


 Now I'll discuss a concern.

 I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
 sabotage
 the November referendum.  That might be based on your belief that

the

 FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is

an

 opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.

 Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,

the

 majority of whom want a better election system.  Remember it

would hurt

 Eugene voters too!

 And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we

had to

 vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
 candidate
 Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder.  The

referendum

 will
 solve that vote-splitting problem.

 In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the

STAR

 voting initiative.  I remained neutral because I used to know

lots of

 people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
 system.  (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.)  In

fact,

 long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
 "order-of-preference ballots."  That was back in the mid 1990's,

long

 before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name

"ranked

 choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many

dances

 in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.

Getting

 back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene

voters

 would respond to your initiative.

 The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of

Eugene

 voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
 well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.


 In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November

referendum

 could lead to planet-wide suicide!

 Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the

coursework

 for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
 University.
    Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
 Atmospheric
 Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their

climate

 models.  So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a

very

 bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the

north

 and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,

which

 increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the

snow

 and ice melt.  That understanding is part of what motivates me to
 pursue
 election-method reform with a sense of urgency.

 Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will

switch

 governments into climate-relevant action instead of further

delays.

 Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon

after

 we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon

state

 representatives.  (That's the next step after adopting this
 referendum.)
    (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
 domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)


 In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this

huge

 opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
 civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.

 At the national level, higher levels of democracy will

"uncrazify" our

 crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
 leaders.  They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
 being
 puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.

 You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen.  You
 pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
 "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method

experts

 could write a well-designed referendum.


 I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding

to

 promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff

voting.

 That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping

of the

 article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him

promoting that

 method.  Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and

heard

 each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state

legislature.  If

 you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open

to

 that
 form of communication.

 While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was

reminded

 that
 Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor

because

 of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al

Mobley as a

 spoiler candidate).  That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would

have been

 a great governor.

 In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system

that, if

 it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,

Dave, in

 spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.


 All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.

 * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need

for

 better ballots.

 * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.

 * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
 candidate at the same preference level.

 * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the

candidate

 with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.


 Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
 building together throughout many years.

 I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as

we take

 advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has

wisely

 given to us.

 We don't have time for any more misunderstandings.  Glaciers are
 melting
 faster than elections are being improved.

 Richard Fobes
 The VoteFair guy
 ----
 Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
 <https://electorama.com/em> for list info

Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
info


Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info

On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 01:18 Chris Benham <cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au> wrote: > Mike, > > In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote > counted whole, & he immediately refused it. > > > And he was very correct to do so, because the resulting ER-IRV (whole) > method is garbage. > Maybe. Probably. …but it was suggested because it’s better garbage than ordinary IRV. I wouldn’t advocate garbage, but I suggested that garbage to Richie because it’s a “Lesser-Of-2-Garbages”. At least it avoids IRV’s worst. [I don’t have any comments farther down in the text. It’s easier to say that than to delete the unreplied text.] > > > Unlike proper Hare/STV ("normal IRV") it fails Mutual Dominant Third. > From a May 2014 EM post of mine: > > The example I give below is also an example of failure of Unburiable > Mutual Dominant Third. > > "I'd like to suggest a simplified and generalized version of that, > "Strategically Invulnerable Mutual Third" (SIMT): > > *If a set S of candidates are all voted above all non-S candidates on more > than a third of the ballots, and if all the S > candidates pairwise-beat some non-S candidate X, then X can't win.* > > This implies compliance with MDT, and means that a sincere MDT winner is > invulnerable to any sort of "offensive" strategy. > > ER-IRV(whole) fails Mutual Dominant Third (MDT). > > 05 A=C > 31 A>B > 34 B>A > 30 C>B > > B is voted above all others on more than a third of the ballots and B is > the CW, but ER-IRV(whole), aka AIRV, elects A." > > Then there is the question of whether or not the new method has a majority > stopping rule or not. In normal Hare it can't make any difference, but in > the ER(whole) version it does. > > Without it the method is farcically vulnerable to Push-over strategy: > > "On 5/21/2014 , C.Benham wrote: > > 45 A=C (sincere is A or A>B) > 35 B>A > 20 C>B > > B is the sincere IRV winner (and sincere CW), but if the method is > ER-IRV(whole) then B is eliminated and A wins. > > (This example also works if you change the 45/35/20 numbers to, say, > 49/48/3)." > > With a majority stopping rule this strategy doesn't work so well. In this > example it would fail because C would get a score of 65 in the first round. > > With it the method fails Irrelevant Ballots Independence (like Bucklin). > That could perhaps be fixed by replacing the majority stopping rule with a > Dominant Candidate stopping rule, i.e. stop when the leading candidate's > score exceeds that candidate's maximum pairwise opposition score from any > remaining candidate. > > The other thing I don't like about is that we lose Hare's simple sincere > zero-info. strategy of just ranking sincerely. With this method the voter > should probably rank equal-top all the candidates they would approve if the > method was Approval and just sincerely rank the rest. > > Chris B. > > > > On 5/06/2024 6:36 am, Michael Ossipoff wrote: > > In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote > counted whole, & he immediately refused it. > > On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received >> FairVote’s advice. >> >> Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s >> strategic trainwreck. >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy < >>> electionmethods@votefair.org> wrote: >>> >>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact >>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>> >>>> YES >>>> >>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>> >>>> It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it. >>> >>> >>> >>> If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit. >>> >>> Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada. >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Richard Fobes >>>> the VoteFair guy >>>> >>>> >>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote: >>>> > VoteFair Guy: >>>> > >>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact >>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates. >>>> > >>>> > That’s a yes or no question. >>>> > >>>> > Yes or no? >>>> > >>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking? >>>> > >>>> > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”) >>>> from >>>> > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a >>>> > vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you >>>> say >>>> > doesn’t have a split-vote problem. >>>> > >>>> > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that >>>> people >>>> > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of >>>> > meaning-mystery text. >>>> > >>>> > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it >>>> > would be if were something different from what it is. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy >>>> > <electionmethods@votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods@votefair.org>> >>>> wrote: >>>> > >>>> > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR >>>> voting >>>> > promoters. >>>> > >>>> > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method >>>> forum >>>> > readers: >>>> > >>>> > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to >>>> approve or >>>> > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing >>>> > Oregon >>>> > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon >>>> secretary of >>>> > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state >>>> legislature! >>>> > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice >>>> voting >>>> > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their >>>> > state's ballots. >>>> > >>>> > Here's the full text of the referendum: >>>> > >>>> > >>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>> < >>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4. >>>> Importantly >>>> > the >>>> > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also >>>> importantly it's >>>> > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the >>>> future. Also >>>> > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the >>>> single-transferable >>>> > vote >>>> > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently >>>> > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators. >>>> > >>>> > Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method >>>> > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are >>>> > involved. >>>> > >>>> > ........................ >>>> > >>>> > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters: >>>> > >>>> > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a >>>> conversation on >>>> > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the >>>> > promoters of >>>> > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings. >>>> > >>>> > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or >>>> embarrassing >>>> > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the >>>> upcoming >>>> > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice >>>> > voting for some Oregon elections. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have >>>> > correctly identified relevant information. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting >>>> > misrepresentations. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big >>>> source of >>>> > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene >>>> voters. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition" >>>> arguments >>>> > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene >>>> voter. >>>> > >>>> > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet >>>> helped >>>> > defeat the STAR voting initiative. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet: >>>> > >>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet >>>> < >>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet> >>>> ) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting, >>>> are >>>> > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR >>>> voting >>>> > was defeated. >>>> > >>>> > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully. >>>> > >>>> > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy, >>>> without >>>> > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the >>>> huge(!) >>>> > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots >>>> are >>>> > much better than STAR ballots. >>>> > >>>> > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the >>>> > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR >>>> counting, when >>>> > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff >>>> round. Yet >>>> > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two >>>> runoff >>>> > step, which is not what they were criticizing. >>>> > >>>> > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your >>>> > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the >>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase >>>> > representation >>>> > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per >>>> district >>>> > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66 >>>> > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method >>>> such as >>>> > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation >>>> > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the >>>> higher >>>> > level that minorities want, and deserve. >>>> > >>>> > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR >>>> > voting >>>> > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority >>>> voter >>>> > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the >>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in >>>> Portland >>>> > in November to elect our city councilors. >>>> > >>>> > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote >>>> > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, >>>> is a >>>> > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other >>>> claims. >>>> > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR >>>> voting >>>> > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of >>>> the >>>> > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote >>>> > organization. >>>> > >>>> > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting >>>> wasted lots >>>> > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the >>>> above >>>> > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of >>>> > summarized >>>> > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity >>>> > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among >>>> friends >>>> > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed >>>> strongly, and >>>> > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is >>>> conducted >>>> > as a >>>> > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the >>>> > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in >>>> governmental >>>> > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by >>>> exaggerating >>>> > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and >>>> 3. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers >>>> to >>>> > collaboration. >>>> > >>>> > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting >>>> against >>>> > them for three decades. >>>> > >>>> > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about >>>> $2,000 I >>>> > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement >>>> from me, >>>> > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November >>>> referendum, >>>> > I will gladly accept their assistance. >>>> > >>>> > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my >>>> name as >>>> > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree >>>> > -- if >>>> > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote >>>> > organization >>>> > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the >>>> > correct winner. >>>> > >>>> > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote >>>> organization, >>>> > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are >>>> needed >>>> > for >>>> > election-method reform. >>>> > >>>> > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how >>>> > election-method reform is going to happen. >>>> > >>>> > This brings us to the core point in this letter. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same >>>> > preference level." >>>> > >>>> > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules" >>>> committee >>>> > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was >>>> > attempting to >>>> > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots >>>> > should be >>>> > counted. >>>> > >>>> > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and >>>> > because >>>> > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later >>>> worked >>>> > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically >>>> improved >>>> > wording that is now in the November referendum. >>>> > >>>> > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of >>>> "overvotes." >>>> > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for >>>> > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column. >>>> > >>>> > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for >>>> > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon! >>>> > >>>> > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by >>>> the >>>> > fans of the FairVote organization. >>>> > >>>> > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being >>>> exposed. >>>> > >>>> > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first >>>> statewide >>>> > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using >>>> software >>>> > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes." >>>> > >>>> > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same >>>> preference >>>> > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot >>>> can be >>>> > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern, >>>> and >>>> > one >>>> > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two >>>> > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the >>>> other >>>> > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal >>>> numbers >>>> > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software >>>> must not >>>> > use the decimal-number shortcut.) >>>> > >>>> > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical >>>> "overvotes" >>>> > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded >>>> election >>>> > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it >>>> > certified requires certified data. >>>> > >>>> > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls >>>> this >>>> > "overvote" issue a "counting detail." >>>> > >>>> > Why is this "counting detail" so important? >>>> > >>>> > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you, >>>> STAR >>>> > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of >>>> instant-runoff >>>> > voting. >>>> > >>>> > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article >>>> where >>>> > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice >>>> ballots >>>> > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it >>>> does not >>>> > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are >>>> correctly >>>> > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to >>>> > shortly.) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article: >>>> > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 >>>> > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> ) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are >>>> > told to >>>> > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a >>>> strongly >>>> > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not >>>> as >>>> > many >>>> > choice columns as candidates. >>>> > >>>> > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, >>>> election >>>> > data >>>> > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will >>>> undermine >>>> > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being >>>> "user >>>> > unfriendly." >>>> > >>>> > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation >>>> will >>>> > allow a voter to RATE the candidates. >>>> > >>>> > Just like on a score ballot! >>>> > >>>> > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark >>>> will be >>>> > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR >>>> ballot! >>>> > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the >>>> left-to-right >>>> > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words >>>> instead >>>> > of stars and numbers. >>>> > >>>> > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to >>>> > think in >>>> > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard >>>> ratings as >>>> > more difficult to assign.) >>>> > >>>> > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a >>>> voter >>>> > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they >>>> prefer! >>>> > >>>> > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is >>>> allowed by >>>> > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying >>>> anything >>>> > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes." >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the >>>> > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the >>>> > FairVote organization. >>>> > >>>> > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the >>>> least >>>> > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election, >>>> and the >>>> > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner. >>>> > >>>> > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee >>>> > diagrams. >>>> > >>>> > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are >>>> > "user >>>> > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some >>>> voters to >>>> > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the >>>> fairest >>>> > ("correct") election result. >>>> > >>>> > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness" >>>> will >>>> > disappear when better election software becomes available. >>>> > >>>> > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the >>>> failures in >>>> > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like >>>> STAR >>>> > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their >>>> enemy. >>>> > >>>> > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way >>>> that >>>> > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the >>>> future. >>>> > >>>> > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to >>>> correct >>>> > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle >>>> issue. >>>> > >>>> > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to >>>> > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of >>>> > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is >>>> elected; a >>>> > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every >>>> > one-on-one >>>> > contest against every remaining candidate." >>>> > >>>> > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice >>>> Including >>>> > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words >>>> > would >>>> > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated >>>> when >>>> > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would >>>> lose >>>> > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate." >>>> > >>>> > The result would be an election method that overcomes the >>>> criticisms >>>> > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote >>>> > organization foolishly tries to defend. >>>> > >>>> > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the >>>> addition of >>>> > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method >>>> > advantages >>>> > of STAR voting. >>>> > >>>> > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this >>>> > interpretation. >>>> > >>>> > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a >>>> > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from >>>> what >>>> > the >>>> > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon >>>> > legislature. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Now I'll discuss a concern. >>>> > >>>> > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to >>>> > sabotage >>>> > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that >>>> the >>>> > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is >>>> an >>>> > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative. >>>> > >>>> > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters, >>>> the >>>> > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it >>>> would hurt >>>> > Eugene voters too! >>>> > >>>> > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we >>>> had to >>>> > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent >>>> > candidate >>>> > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The >>>> referendum >>>> > will >>>> > solve that vote-splitting problem. >>>> > >>>> > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the >>>> STAR >>>> > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know >>>> lots of >>>> > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election >>>> > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In >>>> fact, >>>> > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using >>>> > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's, >>>> long >>>> > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name >>>> "ranked >>>> > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many >>>> dances >>>> > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there. >>>> Getting >>>> > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene >>>> voters >>>> > would respond to your initiative. >>>> > >>>> > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of >>>> Eugene >>>> > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a >>>> > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November >>>> referendum >>>> > could lead to planet-wide suicide! >>>> > >>>> > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the >>>> coursework >>>> > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State >>>> > University. >>>> > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for >>>> > Atmospheric >>>> > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their >>>> climate >>>> > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a >>>> very >>>> > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the >>>> north >>>> > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space, >>>> which >>>> > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the >>>> snow >>>> > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to >>>> > pursue >>>> > election-method reform with a sense of urgency. >>>> > >>>> > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will >>>> switch >>>> > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further >>>> delays. >>>> > >>>> > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon >>>> after >>>> > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon >>>> state >>>> > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this >>>> > referendum.) >>>> > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce >>>> > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.) >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this >>>> huge >>>> > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help >>>> > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy. >>>> > >>>> > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will >>>> "uncrazify" our >>>> > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving >>>> > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in >>>> > being >>>> > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors. >>>> > >>>> > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You >>>> > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of >>>> > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method >>>> experts >>>> > could write a well-designed referendum. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding >>>> to >>>> > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff >>>> voting. >>>> > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping >>>> of the >>>> > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him >>>> promoting that >>>> > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and >>>> heard >>>> > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state >>>> legislature. If >>>> > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open >>>> to >>>> > that >>>> > form of communication. >>>> > >>>> > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was >>>> reminded >>>> > that >>>> > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor >>>> because >>>> > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al >>>> Mobley as a >>>> > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would >>>> have been >>>> > a great governor. >>>> > >>>> > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system >>>> that, if >>>> > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father, >>>> Dave, in >>>> > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of. >>>> > >>>> > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need >>>> for >>>> > better ballots. >>>> > >>>> > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting. >>>> > >>>> > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one >>>> > candidate at the same preference level. >>>> > >>>> > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the >>>> candidate >>>> > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular. >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been >>>> > building together throughout many years. >>>> > >>>> > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as >>>> we take >>>> > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has >>>> wisely >>>> > given to us. >>>> > >>>> > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are >>>> > melting >>>> > faster than elections are being improved. >>>> > >>>> > Richard Fobes >>>> > The VoteFair guy >>> >>> >>>> > ---- >>>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em >>>> > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info >>>> > >>>> ---- >>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list >>>> info >>>> >>> > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list info > >
RB
robert bristow-johnson
Wed, Jun 5, 2024 8:30 PM

On 06/05/2024 8:55 AM EDT Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:

What do you think of  Adam Tarr's old idea of using  A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?

Why not just A-B as Approval?  Or why not A-B-C-D as Approval?  Or why not just A as Approval (I know that would result in Condorcet-Plurality).  What rhyme or reason is used to determine where the Approval cutoff is?

He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and  Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.

I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.

Please take a look at these templates for RCV legislation: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DGvs2F_YoKcbl2SXzCcfm3nEMkO0zCbR/view .

Even though the actual legislation is not verbatim with these templates, the IRV template (first one) has actually been used for the content of the ballot question for an initiative for IRV.  The second template has BTR-IRV.

Now consider the last three templates ("Straight-ahead Condorcet").  So this is specifically about what to put in subdivision (4) to replace:

"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate having the plurality of first preferences is elected."

What exactly will the language be to replace that line of code?

"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then ..." what?

Perhaps,

"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate receiving the most first and second preferences is elected."

I might call that Condorcet-Bucklin.  Bucklin and Approval have something in common and that common property is that it's "counting marks" and not counting people.  This may be perceived by some legal analysts as violating One-person-one-vote, I dunno.

Would that be a little more resistant to the burying strategy than Condorcet-Plurality?  How about comparing it to Condorcet-TTR, which is nearly Condorcet-IRV?

"(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the two candidates receiving the most first preferences shall runoff against each other and the candidate in that pair that is preferred over the other by the greater number of voters shall be elected."

How would MO's "wv-Condorcet" be worded? (Since he is apparently not plonking me as was threatened.)

It needs to be short and sweet.  ("Sweet" means that it ostensibly elects the candidate with the "greatest" voter support, however that voter support is defined.  But the definition of that "greatest" voter support needs to be simple and understandable and make sense to pedestrians.)

--

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

.
.
.

> On 06/05/2024 8:55 AM EDT Chris Benham <cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au> wrote: > > What do you think of  Adam Tarr's old idea of using  A-B-C--D-E-F > "grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect > a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C > grades as Approval? Why not just A-B as Approval? Or why not A-B-C-D as Approval? Or why not just A as Approval (I know that would result in Condorcet-Plurality). What rhyme or reason is used to determine where the Approval cutoff is? > He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is > Smith//Approval and  Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others. > > I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as > long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their > approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as > their exact ones. Please take a look at these templates for RCV legislation: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DGvs2F_YoKcbl2SXzCcfm3nEMkO0zCbR/view . Even though the actual legislation is not verbatim with these templates, the IRV template (first one) has actually been used for the content of the ballot question for an initiative for IRV. The second template has BTR-IRV. Now consider the last three templates ("Straight-ahead Condorcet"). So this is specifically about what to put in subdivision (4) to replace: "(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate having the plurality of first preferences is elected." What exactly will the language be to replace that line of code? "(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then ..." what? Perhaps, "(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the candidate receiving the most first and second preferences is elected." I might call that Condorcet-Bucklin. Bucklin and Approval have something in common and that common property is that it's "counting marks" and not counting people. This may be perceived by some legal analysts as violating One-person-one-vote, I dunno. Would that be a little more resistant to the burying strategy than Condorcet-Plurality? How about comparing it to Condorcet-TTR, which is nearly Condorcet-IRV? "(4) If no Condorcet winner exists in subdivision (3), then the two candidates receiving the most first preferences shall runoff against each other and the candidate in that pair that is preferred over the other by the greater number of voters shall be elected." How would MO's "wv-Condorcet" be worded? (Since he is apparently not plonking me as was threatened.) It needs to be short and sweet. ("Sweet" means that it ostensibly elects the candidate with the "greatest" voter support, however that voter support is defined. But the definition of that "greatest" voter support needs to be simple and understandable and make sense to pedestrians.) -- r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com "Imagination is more important than knowledge." . . .
CL
Closed Limelike Curves
Thu, Jun 6, 2024 4:01 AM

ICA and ICT seem like they could be fine, but I'm slightly hesitant because
they violate later-no-help; that means you should expect turkey-raising. I
mentioned earlier that, ideally I'd want later-no-help and FBC, but what I
really want is to be sure the optimal strategy is sincere and elects the
Condorcet winner.

On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 5:56 AM Chris Benham cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au wrote:

Robert,

What do you think of  Adam Tarr's old idea of using  A-B-C--D-E-F
"grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect
a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C
grades as Approval?

He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is
Smith//Approval and  Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others.

I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as
long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their
approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as
their exact ones.

Chris B.

On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote:

On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote:

On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote:

they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!)
number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are
much better than STAR ballots.

Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots.

Not for governmental elections.  Elections are not about utility.  Not

utilitarian.  We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges
for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics.  When we vote, we don't have
to be "fair to the other side".

We vote to best serve our own political interests.  It's a battle of

sorts.  They call them "campaigns".

They are easier to fill out.

That's horseshit.  Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over

the others, but then they have to figure out how much they prefer that
candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not
they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or
lesser evil) higher or lower.  In any Cardinal system and whenever there
are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates),
the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to
approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate.  Score them too
high and you hurt your favorite.  Score too low and you help your greater
evil.

You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with zero evidence.

And it doesn't even make common sense.

They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference.

Yes.  And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans.  And the

timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that
expression.

And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring.  How

much expression is there?  The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is
related to how many levels of scoring is there.  More levels, more
expressivity.  Why not have 100 levels?  My vote for Candidate Whoever is
the sqrt(3).  Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity?

There is the Paradox of Choice problem.  At some point, more degree of

choice makes it harder to choose.

They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the

number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5
for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc.

Ordinal ballots stay the same, too.

This whole thing is just baloney:  Claim followed by claim followed by

claim.  Nothing really backing it up.

--

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

.
.
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ICA and ICT seem like they could be fine, but I'm slightly hesitant because they violate later-no-help; that means you should expect turkey-raising. I mentioned earlier that, ideally I'd want later-no-help and FBC, but what I really want is to be sure the optimal strategy is sincere and elects the Condorcet winner. On Wed, Jun 5, 2024 at 5:56 AM Chris Benham <cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au> wrote: > Robert, > > What do you think of Adam Tarr's old idea of using A-B-C--D-E-F > "grading" ballots with the idea of using them to infer ranking to elect > a Condorcet winner and if there isn't one then interpreting the A-B-C > grades as Approval? > > He liked Condorcet//Approval but also possible with these ballots is > Smith//Approval and Margins-Sorted Approval and a few others. > > I don't see such a big problem with high-resolution score ballots as > long as it is made clear to the voters (and is true) that their > approximate ratings of the candidates will work just as well for them as > their exact ones. > > Chris B. > > > On 5/06/2024 2:33 am, robert bristow-johnson wrote: > > > >> On 06/04/2024 12:22 PM EDT fdpk69p6uq@snkmail.com wrote: > >> > >> > >> On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 8:41 PM Richard, the VoteFair guy wrote: > >>> they are basically just supplying money to the huge(!) > >>> number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots are > >>> much better than STAR ballots. > >> Score ballots are superior to ranked ballots. > > Not for governmental elections. Elections are not about utility. Not > utilitarian. We are partisans that vote by secret ballot and not judges > for the Figure Skating event at the Olympics. When we vote, we don't have > to be "fair to the other side". > > > > We vote to best serve our own political interests. It's a battle of > sorts. They call them "campaigns". > > > >> They are easier to fill out. > > That's horseshit. Requires voters to not only say who they prefer over > the others, but then they have to figure out *how* *much* they prefer that > candidate over the others and then they have to figure out whether or not > they're shooting themselves in the foot by ranking some second-choice (or > lesser evil) higher or lower. In any Cardinal system and whenever there > are 3 or more candidates (especially if they are non-trivial candidates), > the voter is faced with the decision of how much to score (or whether to > approve) their second-choice (or lesser evil) candidate. Score them too > high and you hurt your favorite. Score too low and you help your greater > evil. > > > > You CES guys keep repeating this falsehood with ***zero*** evidence. > And it doesn't even make common sense. > > > >> They allow expression of strength of preference and indifference. > > Yes. And that expression will be exaggerated by partisans. And the > timid that worry about the greater evil might be pressured to reduce that > expression. > > > > And Approval ballots are Score ballots, with two levels of scoring. How > much expression is there? The amount of expressivity of Score ballots is > related to how many levels of scoring is there. More levels, more > expressivity. Why not have 100 levels? My vote for Candidate Whoever is > the sqrt(3). Can we get fractional-resolution in expressivity? > > > > There is the Paradox of Choice problem. At some point, more degree of > choice makes it **harder** to choose. > > > >> They stay the same from one election to the next, regardless of the > number of candidates. They don't require limiting your rankings to top 5 > for space in an election with 20 candidates, etc. etc. > > Ordinal ballots stay the same, too. > > > > This whole thing is just baloney: Claim followed by claim followed by > claim. Nothing really backing it up. > > > > > > -- > > > > r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com > > > > "Imagination is more important than knowledge." > > > > . > > . > > . > > ---- > > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list > info > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list > info >