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Technical discussion of election methods

Re: [EM] Suppose, for a moment, there were never any cycles...

robert bristow-johnson

Mon, Jan 23, 2023 4:43 PM

On 01/23/2023 8:53 AM EST John T Whelan john.whelan@astro.rit.edu wrote:

I generally agree with all of this (IRV failing to elect the Condorcet winner is both unfair and runs the risk of convincing people to switch back to FPtP, which is much worse). But Alaska was also different in another way: there was a rematch a few months later in the general election. If voters were really upset about Peltola winning the special election, a logical outcome would be for some Palin voters to tactically list Begich as their first choice so he would make it to the instant runoff and be elected.

That would be logical, but there was so much mis/disinformation. In fact, Palin had the audacity to call on Begich to step aside so that she (Palin) could beat Peltola. That was really stupid since Palin had her womano-a-womano with Peltola in August and lost whereas we know that Begich wwould have won against Peltola in August.

Just because something is logical, doesn't mean voters (or politicians) will "get it."

But instead Peltola increased her vote share at the expense of the other two:

Special:
First round:
Peltola 74,817 39.7%
Palin 58,339 30.9%
Begich 52,536 27.8%
Runoff:
Peltola 91,266 51.5%
Palin 86,026 48.5%
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election

General:
First round:
Peltola 128,553 48.8%
Palin 67,866 25.7%
Begich 61,513 23.3%
Runoff:
Peltola 137,263 55.0%
Palin 112,471 45.0%
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska

Now of course all three candidates increased their vote totals, Peltola had the incumbency advantage in the general, etc, etc. I can't seem to fine the definitive answer, but I'm guessing Peltola was actually the Condorcet winner the second time around, since she only needed 6% of Palin's votes to be exhausted, given that the totals after write-ins and Bye were eliminated were:

Peltola 129,786 49.22%
Palin 69,399 26.32%
Begich 64,499 24.46%

Source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22GENR/US%20REP.pdf

It is almost certain that Peltola was the CW in November since Palin+Begich was only 1.5% more than Peltola and it's virtually certain that not all Palin voters would have marked Begich as #2. All we would need is one of 16 Palin ballots to fail to mark Begich as #2 and Peltola beats Begich one-on-one. And we know already that Peltola creams Palin head-to-head.

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

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> On 01/23/2023 8:53 AM EST John T Whelan <john.whelan@astro.rit.edu> wrote: > > > I generally agree with all of this (IRV failing to elect the Condorcet winner is both unfair and runs the risk of convincing people to switch back to FPtP, which is much worse). But Alaska was also different in another way: there was a rematch a few months later in the general election. If voters were really upset about Peltola winning the special election, a logical outcome would be for some Palin voters to tactically list Begich as their first choice so he would make it to the instant runoff and be elected. That would be logical, but there was so much mis/disinformation. In fact, Palin had the audacity to call on Begich to step aside so that she (Palin) could beat Peltola. That was really stupid since Palin had her womano-a-womano with Peltola in August and lost whereas we know that Begich wwould have won against Peltola in August. Just because something is logical, doesn't mean voters (or politicians) will "get it." > But instead Peltola increased her vote share at the expense of the other two: > > Special: > First round: > Peltola 74,817 39.7% > Palin 58,339 30.9% > Begich 52,536 27.8% > Runoff: > Peltola 91,266 51.5% > Palin 86,026 48.5% > Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election > > General: > First round: > Peltola 128,553 48.8% > Palin 67,866 25.7% > Begich 61,513 23.3% > Runoff: > Peltola 137,263 55.0% > Palin 112,471 45.0% > Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska > > Now of course all three candidates increased their vote totals, Peltola had the incumbency advantage in the general, etc, etc. I can't seem to fine the definitive answer, but I'm guessing Peltola was actually the Condorcet winner the second time around, since she only needed 6% of Palin's votes to be exhausted, given that the totals after write-ins and Bye were eliminated were: > > Peltola 129,786 49.22% > Palin 69,399 26.32% > Begich 64,499 24.46% > > Source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22GENR/US%20REP.pdf > It is almost certain that Peltola was the CW in November since Palin+Begich was only 1.5% more than Peltola and it's virtually certain that not all Palin voters would have marked Begich as #2. All we would need is one of 16 Palin ballots to fail to mark Begich as #2 and Peltola beats Begich one-on-one. And we know already that Peltola creams Palin head-to-head. -- r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj@audioimagination.com "Imagination is more important than knowledge." . . .