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Some thoughts on Condorcet and Burial

MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sat, Nov 4, 2023 6:06 AM

I should add that of course my check regarding the compatibility between
one particular order for the 3 candidates’ values of one of two measures of
overall high-ranking, with one of the 3 pairwise-defeats…is just one of 36
such compatibilities that should be checked.

…for the purpose of determining which orders for the candidates’ scores,
which measures, are compatible with the pairwise defeats

…for use in determining which candidate in a top-cycle is most likely to be
a Bus, & therefore the candidate to elect.

But the identification of the candidate with median Borda, or maybe median
implicit approval, among the top-cycle, as the most likely BF seems
convincing.

…making the candidate s/he pairbeats the most likely Bus.

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 14:36 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Forest & Chris—

With wv Condorcet, defense against burial, as  you said, requires
defensive truncation:

If your candidate might be CW, & you don’t want burial to take the win
from hir & give it to someone you don’t approve, then you & others who
agree with you should refuse to rank anyone you don’t approve.

But it’s best to not make a strategic demand on voters. Maybe I
defensively truncate but others in my faction don’t. So, because I regard
our current elections as completely dichotomous, I’d rank all of the
Acceptables together in 1st place, & refuse to rank anyone else.  …so
that I’m not helping anyone’s burial of one of my Acceptables under another
of my Acceptables.

So I’d be voting Approval-like.  But it would be much better to avoid
depending on others to defensively-truncate.

Hence the desirability of autodeterrent methods.

I like Forest’s improvement on CTE by making it into SP with takedown,
where the SP is agenda-ordered by Borda or implicit Approval.

For one thing, SP, when there are lots of candidates, is autodeterrent
already, & moreso with takedown. it seems to me. SP with (primary &
secondary) takedown could be called SPT, for SP with Takedown.

SP & SPT both seem autodeterrent when there are lots of candidates.  …especially
SPT, because there then are likely more than 1 Bus, which greatly decreases
the likelihood of electing anyone other than a Bus.  …& even moreso when
there are still more buses, as is likely in burial with lots of candidates.

But when there are only 3 candidates, SP & SPT, or any autodeterrent
method, depends on predicting which of the 3 candidates is the Bus (whom
it’s desired to elect).

That’s the core of the problem, it seems to me.

Say there are 3 candidates, & all of one candidate’s preferrers  strategically
bury the CW.

What can be said about the pairwise defeats & victories, the wins & loses,
of CW, BF & Bus?

BF is in the unique position of having only natural defeats & victories.

BF has 1 natural victory & 1 natural defeat.

CW has two natural defeats & 1 strategic lowering.

Bus has two natural defeats & 1 strategic raising.

Do 2 natural defeats or victories affect someone’s Borda or implicit
Approval more, or less, than 1strategic raising or lowering?

The natural defeats & victories result from a majority of the electorate
ranking someone low or high.  A strategic lowering or raising results
from just one faction strategically raising or lowering someone.

Don’t the two natural victorys or defeats, then ,sound stronger than the
one strategtic lowering or raising?

…& so, doesn’t that suggest that implicit-Approval & Borda would be
expected to be in the following order?  :

CW>BF>Bus

I wanted to check that out, for implicit-Approval & for Borda.

I started with implicit-Approval.

There are 6 ways that 3 candidates can be ordered. We can assume that all
of the BF-preferrers rank BF>Bus>CW, since the ones who prefer CW to Bus
will bury.

So that’s 5 kinds of rankings. Write the rankings in a row, & label them
at the top from A to E.

Write the inequality, relating the numbers of voters for A thru E, that
must be satisfied in order for Bus to pairwise-beat CW.

Write the inequalities that must be satisfied in order for the implicit
approvals to be in the order:

CW>BF>Bus.

Check for whether any of those inequalities, together, imply a
contradiction.

Unless I made an error, they imply several contradictions.

Oh well.  Hopefully I’ll have better luck with Borda.

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 2:50 AM Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com
wrote:

I strongly agree with everything you said in this message ... including
the importance of judicious use of truncations ... especially when approval
cutoffs are not allowed.

And most of the time no sincerity check is needed ... best policy is to
elect the Smith candidate  most likely to be the "bus" under whom the
buriers threw the buried candidate to cause the cycle .... assuming that
the most common cause of cycles is insincere order reversals.

That's a controversial assumption, but I now believe that these insincere
order reversals are much more common than inconsistent sincere preferences
as a cause of these ballot cycles.

Over the years I have contrived my share or scenarios that result in
sincere Paper Rock Scissors cycles ...  Paper sincerely covers Rock which
sincerely smashes Scissors which cuts Paper ... and perfectly plausible
issue space examples.

But the insincere burials are easier to engineer ... even by accident ...
just innocently pushing your second choice to the bottom of your ballot to
give your favorite an edge ... perhaps assuming that as many people do that
the same Borda Count used in Sports competitions had something to do with
the tally of Condorcet methods like ... Black, Baldwin, and Nanson.

Sincere pairwise beat cycles are not impossible .... but I believe that
they are relatively much less likely .... based on the difficultly of them
arising naturally as opposed to innocent opportunistic order reversals.

It turns out that Condorcet wv is almost as easy to fool as Norda based
Nanson ... two methods that almost always elect the Burier faction
candidate as in your example below.

We have devised methods that make burial backfire on the burial faction.

That's good enough for me and you, but some people need more evidence ...
and education ....including influential people like Foley and Maskin, who
are proposing burial prone Baldwin in place of burial resistant  IRV.

I'm simply proposing a way of distinguishing statistically between the
relative prevalence of sincere and imsincere pairbeaten cycles.

Here's one test:

As often as possible when an RP Condorcet rules election has no ballot CW
...

Let W be the RP winner. And let X be the Smith candidate with the most
losing votes against W.  Finally, let Y be the Smith candidate with the
fewest losing votes against X.

Suppose the voters have agreed to a two stage runoff for Scientific
purpose

The first stage of the runoff is to decidenif there will be a second
stage.

If not W retainsbthe win .... and that's that. Otherwise, the final
choice is between X and Y.

If the ballots were sincere, then since they say X beats Y, the voters
would expect X to win the secomd stage if it were held ... So if the ballot
votes were sincere they would prefer not to have the second stage ... so W
would retain her wim.

But if X or Y were sincerely preferred over the other two participants in
this new tangled runoffbthen the moderately well informed voters will be
aware of that .... and the supporters of this "local CW" will willingly
support having a second stage knowing that they can win it ... and thereby
winvthe election.

So in the long run if more of these RP winners are retained than not
..the null hypothesis of sincere cycle preponderance will be supported.

fws

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW
over the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully
they get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't
want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that,
due to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer
not to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which
produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.  Regardless of whether or
not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and
mostly desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

I should add that of course my check regarding the compatibility between one particular order for the 3 candidates’ values of one of two measures of overall high-ranking, with one of the 3 pairwise-defeats…is just one of 36 such compatibilities that should be checked. …for the purpose of determining which orders for the candidates’ scores, which measures, are compatible with the pairwise defeats …for use in determining which candidate in a top-cycle is most likely to be a Bus, & therefore the candidate to elect. But the identification of the candidate with median Borda, or maybe median implicit approval, among the top-cycle, as the most likely BF seems convincing. …making the candidate s/he pairbeats the most likely Bus. On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 14:36 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > Forest & Chris— > > … > > With wv Condorcet, defense against burial, as you said, requires > defensive truncation: > > … > > If your candidate might be CW, & you don’t want burial to take the win > from hir & give it to someone you don’t approve, then you & others who > agree with you should refuse to rank anyone you don’t approve. > > … > > But it’s best to not make a strategic demand on voters. Maybe I > defensively truncate but others in my faction don’t. So, because I regard > our current elections as completely dichotomous, I’d rank all of the > Acceptables together in 1st place, & refuse to rank anyone else. …so > that I’m not helping anyone’s burial of one of my Acceptables under another > of my Acceptables. > > … > > So I’d be voting Approval-like. But it would be much better to avoid > depending on others to defensively-truncate. > > … > > Hence the desirability of autodeterrent methods. > > … > > I like Forest’s improvement on CTE by making it into SP with takedown, > where the SP is agenda-ordered by Borda or implicit Approval. > > … > > For one thing, SP, when there are lots of candidates, is autodeterrent > already, & moreso with takedown. it seems to me. SP with (primary & > secondary) takedown could be called SPT, for SP with Takedown. > > … > > SP & SPT both seem autodeterrent when there are lots of candidates. …especially > SPT, because there then are likely more than 1 Bus, which greatly decreases > the likelihood of electing anyone other than a Bus. …& even moreso when > there are still more buses, as is likely in burial with lots of candidates. > > … > > But when there are only 3 candidates, SP & SPT, or any autodeterrent > method, depends on predicting which of the 3 candidates is the Bus (whom > it’s desired to elect). > > … > > That’s the core of the problem, it seems to me. > > … > > Say there are 3 candidates, & all of one candidate’s preferrers strategically > bury the CW. > > … > > What can be said about the pairwise defeats & victories, the wins & loses, > of CW, BF & Bus? > > … > > BF is in the unique position of having only natural defeats & victories. > > … > > BF has 1 natural victory & 1 natural defeat. > > … > > CW has two natural defeats & 1 strategic lowering. > > … > > Bus has two natural defeats & 1 strategic raising. > > … > > Do 2 natural defeats or victories affect someone’s Borda or implicit > Approval more, or less, than 1strategic raising or lowering? > > … > > The natural defeats & victories result from a majority of the electorate > ranking someone low or high. A strategic lowering or raising results > from just one faction strategically raising or lowering someone. > > … > > Don’t the two natural victorys or defeats, then ,sound stronger than the > one strategtic lowering or raising? > > … > > …& so, doesn’t that suggest that implicit-Approval & Borda would be > expected to be in the following order? : > > … > > CW>BF>Bus > > … > > I wanted to check that out, for implicit-Approval & for Borda. > > … > > I started with implicit-Approval. > > … > > There are 6 ways that 3 candidates can be ordered. We can assume that all > of the BF-preferrers rank BF>Bus>CW, since the ones who prefer CW to Bus > will bury. > > … > > So that’s 5 kinds of rankings. Write the rankings in a row, & label them > at the top from A to E. > > … > > Write the inequality, relating the numbers of voters for A thru E, that > must be satisfied in order for Bus to pairwise-beat CW. > > … > > Write the inequalities that must be satisfied in order for the implicit > approvals to be in the order: > > … > > CW>BF>Bus. > > … > > Check for whether any of those inequalities, together, imply a > contradiction. > > … > > Unless I made an error, they imply several contradictions. > > … > > Oh well. Hopefully I’ll have better luck with Borda. > > On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 2:50 AM Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> I strongly agree with everything you said in this message ... including >> the importance of judicious use of truncations ... especially when approval >> cutoffs are not allowed. >> >> And most of the time no sincerity check is needed ... best policy is to >> elect the Smith candidate most likely to be the "bus" under whom the >> buriers threw the buried candidate to cause the cycle .... assuming that >> the most common cause of cycles is insincere order reversals. >> >> That's a controversial assumption, but I now believe that these insincere >> order reversals are much more common than inconsistent sincere preferences >> as a cause of these ballot cycles. >> >> Over the years I have contrived my share or scenarios that result in >> sincere Paper Rock Scissors cycles ... Paper sincerely covers Rock which >> sincerely smashes Scissors which cuts Paper ... and perfectly plausible >> issue space examples. >> >> But the insincere burials are easier to engineer ... even by accident ... >> just innocently pushing your second choice to the bottom of your ballot to >> give your favorite an edge ... perhaps assuming that as many people do that >> the same Borda Count used in Sports competitions had something to do with >> the tally of Condorcet methods like ... Black, Baldwin, and Nanson. >> >> Sincere pairwise beat cycles are not impossible .... but I believe that >> they are relatively much less likely .... based on the difficultly of them >> arising naturally as opposed to innocent opportunistic order reversals. >> >> It turns out that Condorcet wv is almost as easy to fool as Norda based >> Nanson ... two methods that almost always elect the Burier faction >> candidate as in your example below. >> >> We have devised methods that make burial backfire on the burial faction. >> >> That's good enough for me and you, but some people need more evidence ... >> and education ....including influential people like Foley and Maskin, who >> are proposing burial prone Baldwin in place of burial resistant IRV. >> >> I'm simply proposing a way of distinguishing statistically between the >> relative prevalence of sincere and imsincere pairbeaten cycles. >> >> Here's one test: >> >> As often as possible when an RP Condorcet rules election has no ballot CW >> ... >> >> Let W be the RP winner. And let X be the Smith candidate with the most >> losing votes against W. Finally, let Y be the Smith candidate with the >> fewest losing votes against X. >> >> Suppose the voters have agreed to a two stage runoff for Scientific >> purpose >> >> The first stage of the runoff is to decidenif there will be a second >> stage. >> >> If not W retainsbthe win .... and that's that. Otherwise, the final >> choice is between X and Y. >> >> If the ballots were sincere, then since they say X beats Y, the voters >> would expect X to win the secomd stage if it were held ... So if the ballot >> votes were sincere they would prefer not to have the second stage ... so W >> would retain her wim. >> >> But if X or Y were sincerely preferred over the other two participants in >> this new tangled runoffbthen the moderately well informed voters will be >> aware of that .... and the supporters of this "local CW" will willingly >> support having a second stage knowing that they can win it ... and thereby >> winvthe election. >> >> So in the long run if more of these RP winners are retained than not >> ..the null hypothesis of sincere cycle preponderance will be supported. >> >> fws >> >> On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >> >>> >>> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >>> reasons: >>> >>> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW >>> over the actual winner >>> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >>> complaint. >>> >>> And those voters could be more than half the total. >>> >>> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >>> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >>> Compromise incentive. >>> >>> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >>> (especially if we decide to only refer >>> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >>> set. Condorcet is just the logical >>> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >>> >>> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully >>> they get something in return. >>> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >>> something else). >>> >>> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >>> should we elect, I don't see that a >>> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >>> certainly nothing compared to an actual >>> voted CW. >>> >>> Suppose sincere looks like: >>> >>> 49 A>>>C>B >>> 48 B>>>C>A >>> 03 C>A>>>B >>> >>> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >>> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >>> are all exhorted to express their full >>> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >>> be, because we don't want anything >>> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A>C >>> 48 B>C >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >>> sincere preferences were reversed or >>> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >>> >>> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >>> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >>> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >>> >>> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >>> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >>> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't >>> want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >>> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >>> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A >>> 48 B >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, >>> due to so many voters truncating, that some other >>> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >>> >>> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >>> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >>> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer >>> not to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >>> >>> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which >>> produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >>> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >>> >>> 46 A >>> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >>> 10 C >>> >>> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. Regardless of whether or >>> not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any case that B has a stronger >>> claim than A. >>> >>> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >>> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >>> apart >>> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and >>> mostly desirable. >>> >>> More later. >>> >>> Chris Benham >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >>> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >>> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >>> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >>> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >>> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >>> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >>> >>> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >>> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >>> insincere ballots (?) >>> >>> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >>> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >>> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >>> results. What do you think? >>> >>> >>>
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sat, Nov 4, 2023 5:20 PM

Referring to what I was saying about the order of the 3 too-cycle
candidates’ Borda or implicit approval:

I told why I claim that BF is the most likely one to be middle.

So what’s the most likely order for the top & bottom of that ordering?

Well, top & bottom are the most extreme difference in the ordering “. So,
isn’t that difference more likely to not contradict a pairwise defeat?

Together, those two facts suggest that the most likely order for the 3
candidates’ Borda or implicit approval is:

Bus>BF>CW.

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 06:35 Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over
the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they
get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of
the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We
respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want
anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully
inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due
to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not
to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces
outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method
does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary
Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the curjous, you can
always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of
the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest
losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest
Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be
between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to
it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind
of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any
case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly
desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

Referring to what I was saying about the order of the 3 too-cycle candidates’ Borda or implicit approval: I told why I claim that BF is the most likely one to be middle. So what’s the most likely order for the top & bottom of that ordering? Well, top & bottom are the most extreme difference in the ordering “. So, isn’t that difference more likely to not contradict a pairwise defeat? Together, those two facts suggest that the most likely order for the 3 candidates’ Borda or implicit approval is: Bus>BF>CW. On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 06:35 Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21@gmail.com> wrote: > > > On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > >> >> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >> reasons: >> >> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over >> the actual winner >> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >> complaint. >> >> And those voters could be more than half the total. >> >> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >> Compromise incentive. >> >> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >> (especially if we decide to only refer >> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >> maximiser. >> >> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >> set. Condorcet is just the logical >> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >> >> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they >> get something in return. >> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >> something else). >> >> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >> should we elect, I don't see that a >> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >> certainly nothing compared to an actual >> voted CW. >> >> Suppose sincere looks like: >> >> 49 A>>>C>B >> 48 B>>>C>A >> 03 C>A>>>B >> > My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of > the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. > > Max Approval is 52 > Min Approval is 3 > Midway is 27.5 > > So we eliminate C. > > Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the > only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. > > The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We > respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. > > There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant > method. > > > >> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >> maximiser. >> >> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >> are all exhorted to express their full >> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >> be, because we don't want anything >> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >> > > This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning > jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from > English Common Law). > > Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... > and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A>C >> 48 B>C >> 03 C>A >> >> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >> sincere preferences were reversed or >> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >> >> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >> >> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want >> anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >> > > That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully > inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A >> 48 B >> 03 C>A >> >> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due >> to so many voters truncating, that some other >> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >> > > Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one. > > In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one > exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its > absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far > the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with > "malice aforethought." > >> >> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not >> to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >> >> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces >> outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >> >> 46 A >> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >> 10 C >> > > Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method > does here: > > The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 > for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as > the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. > > C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. > > So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. > > How does this work? > > Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but > Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing > the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good > at it as this example shows. > > Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or > backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was > buried. > > [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying > faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of > them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to > completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] > > Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a > "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect > the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner > .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes > against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate > even when Smith has more than three members. > > Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary > Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the curjous, you can > always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of > the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest > losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest > Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. > > [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which > beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the > insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] > > In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be > between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to > it A. > > For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the > original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the > runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a > finalist in the runoff! > >> >> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >> > > Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind > of mistake. > >> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any >> case that B has a stronger >> claim than A. >> >> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >> apart >> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly >> desirable. >> >> More later. >> >> Chris Benham >> >> >> >> >> >> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >> ------------------------------ >> >> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >> >> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >> insincere ballots (?) >> >> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >> results. What do you think? >> >> >>
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sat, Nov 4, 2023 5:29 PM

So that suggests that, for SP, agenda-ordered by Borda or implicit
approval, would, in the strategic top-cycle, start by comparing CW & BF.

BF wins that comparison, & goes against Bus.

Bus wins.

The burial is penalized.

The familiar, widely used & precedented SP is autodeterrent.

On Sat, Nov 4, 2023 at 10:20 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Referring to what I was saying about the order of the 3 too-cycle
candidates’ Borda or implicit approval:

I told why I claim that BF is the most likely one to be middle.

So what’s the most likely order for the top & bottom of that ordering?

Well, top & bottom are the most extreme difference in the ordering “. So,
isn’t that difference more likely to not contradict a pairwise defeat?

Together, those two facts suggest that the most likely order for the 3
candidates’ Borda or implicit approval is:

Bus>BF>CW.

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 06:35 Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW
over the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully
they get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis
of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We
respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't
want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully
inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that,
due to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer
not to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which
produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant
method does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even
ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the
curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest
Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate
with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as
the weakest Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would
be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes
to it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind
of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any
case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and
mostly desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

So that suggests that, for SP, agenda-ordered by Borda or implicit approval, would, in the strategic top-cycle, start by comparing CW & BF. BF wins that comparison, & goes against Bus. Bus wins. The burial is penalized. The familiar, widely used & precedented SP is autodeterrent. On Sat, Nov 4, 2023 at 10:20 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > Referring to what I was saying about the order of the 3 too-cycle > candidates’ Borda or implicit approval: > > I told why I claim that BF is the most likely one to be middle. > > So what’s the most likely order for the top & bottom of that ordering? > > Well, top & bottom are the most extreme difference in the ordering “. So, > isn’t that difference more likely to not contradict a pairwise defeat? > > Together, those two facts suggest that the most likely order for the 3 > candidates’ Borda or implicit approval is: > > Bus>BF>CW. > > > On Fri, Nov 3, 2023 at 06:35 Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> >> >> On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >> >>> >>> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >>> reasons: >>> >>> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW >>> over the actual winner >>> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >>> complaint. >>> >>> And those voters could be more than half the total. >>> >>> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >>> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >>> Compromise incentive. >>> >>> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >>> (especially if we decide to only refer >>> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >>> set. Condorcet is just the logical >>> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >>> >>> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully >>> they get something in return. >>> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >>> something else). >>> >>> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >>> should we elect, I don't see that a >>> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >>> certainly nothing compared to an actual >>> voted CW. >>> >>> Suppose sincere looks like: >>> >>> 49 A>>>C>B >>> 48 B>>>C>A >>> 03 C>A>>>B >>> >> My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis >> of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. >> >> Max Approval is 52 >> Min Approval is 3 >> Midway is 27.5 >> >> So we eliminate C. >> >> Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the >> only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. >> >> The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We >> respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. >> >> There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant >> method. >> >> >> >>> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >>> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >>> are all exhorted to express their full >>> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >>> be, because we don't want anything >>> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >>> >> >> This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning >> jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from >> English Common Law). >> >> Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... >> and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. >> >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A>C >>> 48 B>C >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >>> sincere preferences were reversed or >>> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >>> >>> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >>> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >>> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >>> >>> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >>> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >>> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't >>> want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >>> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >>> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >>> >> >> That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully >> inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta. >> >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A >>> 48 B >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, >>> due to so many voters truncating, that some other >>> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >>> >> >> Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one. >> >> In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one >> exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its >> absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far >> the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with >> "malice aforethought." >> >>> >>> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >>> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >>> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer >>> not to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >>> >>> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which >>> produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >>> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >>> >>> 46 A >>> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >>> 10 C >>> >> >> Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant >> method does here: >> >> The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 >> for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as >> the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. >> >> C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. >> >> So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. >> >> How does this work? >> >> Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but >> Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing >> the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good >> at it as this example shows. >> >> Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or >> backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was >> buried. >> >> [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying >> faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of >> them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to >> completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] >> >> Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a >> "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect >> the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner >> .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes >> against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate >> even when Smith has more than three members. >> >> Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even >> ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the >> curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest >> Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate >> with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as >> the weakest Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. >> >> [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which >> beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the >> insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] >> >> In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would >> be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes >> to it A. >> >> For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the >> original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the >> runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a >> finalist in the runoff! >> >>> >>> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >>> >> >> Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind >> of mistake. >> >>> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any >>> case that B has a stronger >>> claim than A. >>> >>> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >>> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >>> apart >>> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and >>> mostly desirable. >>> >>> More later. >>> >>> Chris Benham >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >>> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >>> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >>> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >>> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >>> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >>> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >>> >>> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >>> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >>> insincere ballots (?) >>> >>> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >>> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >>> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >>> results. What do you think? >>> >>> >>>
FS
Forest Simmons
Sun, Nov 5, 2023 8:14 AM

Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by
making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us
by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown
possibilities of working within that box.

I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD
domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ...
at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with
approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations.

I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have
pragmatically pressed on.

In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the
assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to
color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends.

The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool tailor
made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD
possibilities.

Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two candidates
that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot runoff.

But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't good
enough.

But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of fresh
ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate.

I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election ballot
set with more than three uncovered candidates.

It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of
(not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau.

Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical
certainty) one of these buses  will cover all of the others.

These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely
appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop.

fws

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Forest,

Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is
incompatible with Later-no-Help.

By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be
vulnerable to Burial strategy.

Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method
is futile.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X

Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed,
CONDORCET is incompatible with
PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP.

(b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP,
LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and,
in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP.

(c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and
LATER-NO-HARM,
and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated
preference listings.

Election 3. (1 seat)
3 A>B>C
3 B>C>A
3 C>A>B
2 A>C>B
2 B>A>C
2 C>B>A

Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by
the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P
arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type)
that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected
in P.

But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET,
...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP),
or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to MONO-RAISE-DELETE
and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are replaced by acb
(contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together).

This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b).

The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet
mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval
cutoff that I like are
Smith//Approval (ranking),  Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and

Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions.

Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk
for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus".

By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and
Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly
and badly in the presence
of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary
of Smith,DAC).

So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and
truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates
not in
the Smith set.

Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a
"coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate
strictly above any of them.

Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce
to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate
not in it.
Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet
disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one
candidate is left undisqualified.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A)
10 C

In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing
coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44,  C 10.

AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins.

That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but would
be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are
truncating against B.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over
the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they
get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of
the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We
respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want
anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully
inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due
to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not
to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces
outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method
does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary
Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the curjous, you can
always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of
the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest
losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest
Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be
between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to
it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind
of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any
case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly
desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown possibilities of working within that box. I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ... at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations. I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have pragmatically pressed on. In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends. The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool tailor made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD possibilities. Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two candidates that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot runoff. But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't good enough. But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of fresh ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate. I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election ballot set with more than three uncovered candidates. It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of (not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau. Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical certainty) one of these buses will cover all of the others. These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop. fws On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > Forest, > > Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is > incompatible with Later-no-Help. > > By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be > vulnerable to Burial strategy. > > Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method > is futile. > > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X > > Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed, > CONDORCET is incompatible with > PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP. > > (b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP, > LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and, > in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP. > > (c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and > LATER-NO-HARM, > and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated > preference listings. > > Election 3. (1 seat) > 3 A>B>C > 3 B>C>A > 3 C>A>B > 2 A>C>B > 2 B>A>C > 2 C>B>A > > Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by > the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P > arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type) > that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected > in P. > > But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET, > ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP), > or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to MONO-RAISE-DELETE > and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are replaced by acb > (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together). > > This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b). > > > The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet > mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval > cutoff that I like are > Smith//Approval (ranking), Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and > > Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions. > > Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk > for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus". > > By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and > Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly > and badly in the presence > of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary > of Smith,DAC). > > So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and > truncation is fine. Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates > not in > the Smith set. > > Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a > "coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate > strictly above any of them. > > Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce > to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate > not in it. > Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet > disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one > candidate is left undisqualified. > > 46 A > 44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A) > 10 C > > In this example all candidates are in the Smith set. The acquiescing > coalitions are AC 56, BC 54, AB 46, A 46, B 44, C 10. > > AC disqualifies B, BC disqualifies A so C wins. > > That would be great for fans of the Minimal Defense criterion, but would > be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are > truncating against B. > > Chris B. > > > On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote: > > > > On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > >> >> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >> reasons: >> >> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over >> the actual winner >> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >> complaint. >> >> And those voters could be more than half the total. >> >> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >> Compromise incentive. >> >> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >> (especially if we decide to only refer >> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >> maximiser. >> >> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >> set. Condorcet is just the logical >> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >> >> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they >> get something in return. >> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >> something else). >> >> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >> should we elect, I don't see that a >> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >> certainly nothing compared to an actual >> voted CW. >> >> Suppose sincere looks like: >> >> 49 A>>>C>B >> 48 B>>>C>A >> 03 C>A>>>B >> > My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of > the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. > > Max Approval is 52 > Min Approval is 3 > Midway is 27.5 > > So we eliminate C. > > Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the > only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. > > The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We > respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. > > There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant > method. > > > >> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >> maximiser. >> >> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >> are all exhorted to express their full >> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >> be, because we don't want anything >> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >> > > This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning > jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from > English Common Law). > > Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... > and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A>C >> 48 B>C >> 03 C>A >> >> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >> sincere preferences were reversed or >> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >> >> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >> >> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want >> anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >> > > That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully > inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A >> 48 B >> 03 C>A >> >> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due >> to so many voters truncating, that some other >> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >> > > Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one. > > In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one > exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its > absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far > the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with > "malice aforethought." > >> >> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not >> to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >> >> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces >> outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >> >> 46 A >> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >> 10 C >> > > Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method > does here: > > The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 > for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as > the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. > > C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. > > So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. > > How does this work? > > Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but > Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing > the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good > at it as this example shows. > > Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or > backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was > buried. > > [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying > faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of > them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to > completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] > > Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a > "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect > the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner > .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes > against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate > even when Smith has more than three members. > > Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary > Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the curjous, you can > always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of > the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest > losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest > Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. > > [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which > beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the > insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] > > In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be > between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to > it A. > > For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the > original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the > runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a > finalist in the runoff! > >> >> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >> > > Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind > of mistake. > >> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any >> case that B has a stronger >> claim than A. >> >> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >> apart >> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly >> desirable. >> >> More later. >> >> Chris Benham >> >> >> >> >> >> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >> ------------------------------ >> >> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >> >> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >> insincere ballots (?) >> >> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >> results. What do you think? >> >> >>
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sun, Nov 5, 2023 7:10 PM

Forest—

But the incentive for the potential buriers is the matter of whether
burial’s expectation is positive or negative.

You can have a procedure that probably elects the CW, but that doesn’t
figure in the expectation. What matters for the burial’s expectation is the
relative-probabilities of electing Bus vs BF, & their utilities for the
burier.

We can’t affect the utilities of those two outcomes for the potential
buriers. We can only increase the factor by which the probability of
electing a Bus is greater than the probability of electing BF.

Black (with Borda applied to the Smith-set) & SP, it seems to me, are more
likely to elect Bus than BF.

Likewise, it seems to me, so is your suggestion to elect the candidate wit
the largest wv against the candidate who has the most wv against hir in a
defeat. I call that Greatest Win Against Greatest Loser (GWAGL).

But, for the greatest likelihood of electing a Bus in a many-candidate
election, doe anything else equal your suggestion to apply takedown
(primary & secondary) to SP (agenda-ordered by Borda)?

I call that method TSP.

…partly to stand for Takedown-SP…

…& partly because TSP is also the name for the powerful cleaning alkali,
Trisodium Phosphate.

TSP cleans it up !!!

What’s that? We aren’t allowed to use Trisodium Phosphate?

That’s okay, we aren’t allowed to use an adequate voting-system either.

On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 01:14 Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com
wrote:

Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by
making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us
by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown
possibilities of working within that box.

I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD
domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ...
at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with
approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations.

I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have
pragmatically pressed on.

In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the
assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to
color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends.

The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool
tailor made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD
possibilities.

Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two
candidates that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot
runoff.

But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't
good enough.

But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of
fresh ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate.

I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election
ballot set with more than three uncovered candidates.

It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of
(not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau.

Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical
certainty) one of these buses  will cover all of the others.

These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely
appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop.

fws

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Forest,

Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is
incompatible with Later-no-Help.

By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be
vulnerable to Burial strategy.

Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method
is futile.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X

Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed,
CONDORCET is incompatible with
PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP.

(b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP,
LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and,
in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP.

(c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and
LATER-NO-HARM,
and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated
preference listings.

Election 3. (1 seat)
3 A>B>C
3 B>C>A
3 C>A>B
2 A>C>B
2 B>A>C
2 C>B>A

Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by
the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P
arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type)
that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected
in P.

But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET,
...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP),
or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to
MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are
replaced by acb
(contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together).

This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b).

The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet
mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval
cutoff that I like are
Smith//Approval (ranking),  Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and

Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions.

Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk
for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus".

By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and
Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly
and badly in the presence
of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary
of Smith,DAC).

So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and
truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates
not in
the Smith set.

Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a
"coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate
strictly above any of them.

Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce
to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate
not in it.
Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet
disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one
candidate is left undisqualified.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A)
10 C

In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing
coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44,  C 10.

AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins.

That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but would
be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are
truncating against B.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW
over the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully
they get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis
of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We
respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't
want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully
inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that,
due to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer
not to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which
produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant
method does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even
ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the
curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest
Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate
with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as
the weakest Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would
be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes
to it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind
of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any
case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and
mostly desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

Forest— But the incentive for the potential buriers is the matter of whether burial’s expectation is positive or negative. You can have a procedure that probably elects the CW, but that doesn’t figure in the expectation. What matters for the burial’s expectation is the relative-probabilities of electing Bus vs BF, & their utilities for the burier. We can’t affect the utilities of those two outcomes for the potential buriers. We can only increase the factor by which the probability of electing a Bus is greater than the probability of electing BF. Black (with Borda applied to the Smith-set) & SP, it seems to me, are more likely to elect Bus than BF. Likewise, it seems to me, so is your suggestion to elect the candidate wit the largest wv against the candidate who has the most wv against hir in a defeat. I call that Greatest Win Against Greatest Loser (GWAGL). But, for the greatest likelihood of electing a Bus in a many-candidate election, doe anything else equal your suggestion to apply takedown (primary & secondary) to SP (agenda-ordered by Borda)? I call that method TSP. …partly to stand for Takedown-SP… …& partly because TSP is also the name for the powerful cleaning alkali, Trisodium Phosphate. TSP cleans it up !!! What’s that? We aren’t allowed to use Trisodium Phosphate? That’s okay, we aren’t allowed to use an adequate voting-system either. On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 01:14 Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21@gmail.com> wrote: > Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by > making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us > by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown > possibilities of working within that box. > > I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD > domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ... > at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with > approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations. > > I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have > pragmatically pressed on. > > In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the > assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to > color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends. > > The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool > tailor made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD > possibilities. > > Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two > candidates that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot > runoff. > > But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't > good enough. > > But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of > fresh ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate. > > I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election > ballot set with more than three uncovered candidates. > > It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of > (not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau. > > Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical > certainty) one of these buses will cover all of the others. > > These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely > appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop. > > fws > > > > > On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > >> Forest, >> >> Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is >> incompatible with Later-no-Help. >> >> By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be >> vulnerable to Burial strategy. >> >> Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method >> is futile. >> >> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X >> >> Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed, >> CONDORCET is incompatible with >> PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP. >> >> (b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP, >> LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and, >> in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP. >> >> (c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and >> LATER-NO-HARM, >> and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated >> preference listings. >> >> Election 3. (1 seat) >> 3 A>B>C >> 3 B>C>A >> 3 C>A>B >> 2 A>C>B >> 2 B>A>C >> 2 C>B>A >> >> Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by >> the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P >> arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type) >> that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected >> in P. >> >> But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET, >> ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP), >> or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to >> MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are >> replaced by acb >> (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together). >> >> This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b). >> >> >> The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet >> mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval >> cutoff that I like are >> Smith//Approval (ranking), Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and >> >> Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions. >> >> Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk >> for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus". >> >> By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and >> Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly >> and badly in the presence >> of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary >> of Smith,DAC). >> >> So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and >> truncation is fine. Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates >> not in >> the Smith set. >> >> Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a >> "coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate >> strictly above any of them. >> >> Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce >> to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate >> not in it. >> Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet >> disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one >> candidate is left undisqualified. >> >> 46 A >> 44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A) >> 10 C >> >> In this example all candidates are in the Smith set. The acquiescing >> coalitions are AC 56, BC 54, AB 46, A 46, B 44, C 10. >> >> AC disqualifies B, BC disqualifies A so C wins. >> >> That would be great for fans of the Minimal Defense criterion, but would >> be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are >> truncating against B. >> >> Chris B. >> >> >> On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote: >> >> >> >> On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >> >>> >>> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >>> reasons: >>> >>> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW >>> over the actual winner >>> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >>> complaint. >>> >>> And those voters could be more than half the total. >>> >>> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >>> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >>> Compromise incentive. >>> >>> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >>> (especially if we decide to only refer >>> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >>> set. Condorcet is just the logical >>> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >>> >>> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully >>> they get something in return. >>> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >>> something else). >>> >>> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >>> should we elect, I don't see that a >>> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >>> certainly nothing compared to an actual >>> voted CW. >>> >>> Suppose sincere looks like: >>> >>> 49 A>>>C>B >>> 48 B>>>C>A >>> 03 C>A>>>B >>> >> My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis >> of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. >> >> Max Approval is 52 >> Min Approval is 3 >> Midway is 27.5 >> >> So we eliminate C. >> >> Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the >> only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. >> >> The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We >> respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. >> >> There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant >> method. >> >> >> >>> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >>> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >>> maximiser. >>> >>> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >>> are all exhorted to express their full >>> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >>> be, because we don't want anything >>> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >>> >> >> This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning >> jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from >> English Common Law). >> >> Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... >> and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. >> >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A>C >>> 48 B>C >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >>> sincere preferences were reversed or >>> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >>> >>> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >>> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >>> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >>> >>> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >>> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >>> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't >>> want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >>> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >>> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >>> >> >> That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully >> inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta. >> >>> >>> So they vote: >>> >>> 49 A >>> 48 B >>> 03 C>A >>> >>> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, >>> due to so many voters truncating, that some other >>> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >>> >> >> Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one. >> >> In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one >> exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its >> absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far >> the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with >> "malice aforethought." >> >>> >>> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >>> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >>> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer >>> not to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >>> >>> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which >>> produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >>> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >>> >>> 46 A >>> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >>> 10 C >>> >> >> Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant >> method does here: >> >> The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 >> for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as >> the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. >> >> C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. >> >> So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. >> >> How does this work? >> >> Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but >> Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing >> the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good >> at it as this example shows. >> >> Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or >> backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was >> buried. >> >> [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying >> faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of >> them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to >> completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] >> >> Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a >> "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect >> the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner >> .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes >> against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate >> even when Smith has more than three members. >> >> Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even >> ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the >> curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest >> Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate >> with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as >> the weakest Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. >> >> [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which >> beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the >> insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] >> >> In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would >> be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes >> to it A. >> >> For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the >> original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the >> runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a >> finalist in the runoff! >> >>> >>> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >>> >> >> Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind >> of mistake. >> >>> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any >>> case that B has a stronger >>> claim than A. >>> >>> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >>> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >>> apart >>> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and >>> mostly desirable. >>> >>> More later. >>> >>> Chris Benham >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >>> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >>> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >>> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >>> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >>> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >>> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >>> >>> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >>> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >>> insincere ballots (?) >>> >>> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >>> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >>> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >>> results. What do you think? >>> >>> >>>
MO
Michael Ossipoff
Sun, Nov 5, 2023 8:05 PM

As you suggested, TSP should only be applied to the Smith-set.

On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 11:10 Michael Ossipoff email9648742@gmail.com
wrote:

Forest—

But the incentive for the potential buriers is the matter of whether
burial’s expectation is positive or negative.

You can have a procedure that probably elects the CW, but that doesn’t
figure in the expectation. What matters for the burial’s expectation is the
relative-probabilities of electing Bus vs BF, & their utilities for the
burier.

We can’t affect the utilities of those two outcomes for the potential
buriers. We can only increase the factor by which the probability of
electing a Bus is greater than the probability of electing BF.

Black (with Borda applied to the Smith-set) & SP, it seems to me, are
more likely to elect Bus than BF.

Likewise, it seems to me, so is your suggestion to elect the candidate wit
the largest wv against the candidate who has the most wv against hir in a
defeat. I call that Greatest Win Against Greatest Loser (GWAGL).

But, for the greatest likelihood of electing a Bus in a many-candidate
election, doe anything else equal your suggestion to apply takedown
(primary & secondary) to SP (agenda-ordered by Borda)?

I call that method TSP.

…partly to stand for Takedown-SP…

…& partly because TSP is also the name for the powerful cleaning alkali,
Trisodium Phosphate.

TSP cleans it up !!!

What’s that? We aren’t allowed to use Trisodium Phosphate?

That’s okay, we aren’t allowed to use an adequate voting-system either.

On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 01:14 Forest Simmons forest.simmons21@gmail.com
wrote:

Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by
making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us
by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown
possibilities of working within that box.

I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD
domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ...
at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with
approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations.

I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have
pragmatically pressed on.

In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the
assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to
color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends.

The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool
tailor made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD
possibilities.

Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two
candidates that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot
runoff.

But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't
good enough.

But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of
fresh ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate.

I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election
ballot set with more than three uncovered candidates.

It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of
(not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau.

Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical
certainty) one of these buses  will cover all of the others.

These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely
appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop.

fws

On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Forest,

Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is
incompatible with Later-no-Help.

By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be
vulnerable to Burial strategy.

Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet
method is futile.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X

Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed,
CONDORCET is incompatible with
PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP.

(b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP,
LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and,
in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP.

(c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and
LATER-NO-HARM,
and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated
preference listings.

Election 3. (1 seat)
3 A>B>C
3 B>C>A
3 C>A>B
2 A>C>B
2 B>A>C
2 C>B>A

Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but,
by the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P
arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type)
that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected
in P.

But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by
CONDORCET,  ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to
LATER-NO-HELP),
or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to
MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are
replaced by acb
(contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together).

This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b).

The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet
mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval
cutoff that I like are
Smith//Approval (ranking),  Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and

Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions.

Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the
risk for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus".

By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and
Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly
and badly in the presence
of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm
wary of Smith,DAC).

So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and
truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates
not in
the Smith set.

Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a
"coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate
strictly above any of them.

Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots
acquiesce to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the
candidate not in it.
Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet
disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one
candidate is left undisqualified.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A)
10 C

In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing
coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44,  C 10.

AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins.

That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but
would be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are
truncating against B.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW
over the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully
they get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis
of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten.
We respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the
voters are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't
want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to
"fully inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna
Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that,
due to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is
one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever
reason choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer
not to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which
produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant
method does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even
ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the
curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest
Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate
with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as
the weakest Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would
be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes
to it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that
kind of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't
any case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and
mostly desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

As you suggested, TSP should only be applied to the Smith-set. On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 11:10 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742@gmail.com> wrote: > Forest— > > But the incentive for the potential buriers is the matter of whether > burial’s expectation is positive or negative. > > You can have a procedure that probably elects the CW, but that doesn’t > figure in the expectation. What matters for the burial’s expectation is the > relative-probabilities of electing Bus vs BF, & their utilities for the > burier. > > We can’t affect the utilities of those two outcomes for the potential > buriers. We can only increase the factor by which the probability of > electing a Bus is greater than the probability of electing BF. > > Black (with Borda applied to the Smith-set) & SP, it seems to me, are > more likely to elect Bus than BF. > > Likewise, it seems to me, so is your suggestion to elect the candidate wit > the largest wv against the candidate who has the most wv against hir in a > defeat. I call that Greatest Win Against Greatest Loser (GWAGL). > > But, for the greatest likelihood of electing a Bus in a many-candidate > election, doe anything else equal your suggestion to apply takedown > (primary & secondary) to SP (agenda-ordered by Borda)? > > I call that method TSP. > > …partly to stand for Takedown-SP… > > …& partly because TSP is also the name for the powerful cleaning alkali, > Trisodium Phosphate. > > TSP cleans it up !!! > > What’s that? We aren’t allowed to use Trisodium Phosphate? > > That’s okay, we aren’t allowed to use an adequate voting-system either. > > > > On Sun, Nov 5, 2023 at 01:14 Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Woodall has been a great EM pioneer .... and has done us a great favor by >> making clear some of the limitations of the UD box, as well has showing us >> by his Solid Coalitions methods some of the previously unknown >> possibilities of working within that box. >> >> I have suggested some of the "pockets of predictability" within the UD >> domain that have not been fully exploited for burial resistant methods ... >> at the same time coloring outside the UD lines as you have (eg with >> approval cutoffs) to surpass some of the UD limitations. >> >> I'm glad that you did not give up In helpless futility .... nut have >> pragmatically pressed on. >> >> In general, impossibility proofs are valuable by making clear the >> assumptions that entail impossibility ... so we know which lines we have to >> color outside of if we want to avoid dead endends. >> >> The three candidate two stage fresh ballot runoff is one non UD tool >> tailor made for finishing elections that surpass the boundaries of UD >> possibilities. >> >> Sometimes with manipulated ballot sets we can narrow down to two >> candidates that form a satisfactory basis for a two candidate fresh ballot >> runoff. >> >> But when you push the boundaries further, a two candidate runoff isn't >> good enough. >> >> But in the case of a three candidate Landau set ... the right kind of >> fresh ballots runoff is adequate for recovering the buried candidate. >> >> I doubt there has ever been (or ever will be) a real public election >> ballot set with more than three uncovered candidates. >> >> It is easy to show that when a CW is buried, it will still be a member of >> (not only the Smith set), but also a member of Landau. >> >> Smith may have a large clone set of "buses", but (with statistical >> certainty) one of these buses will cover all of the others. >> >> These tools are outside the scope of Woodall ... who would surely >> appreciate their usefulness were he still in the loop. >> >> fws >> >> >> >> >> On Fri, Nov 3, 2023, 1:32 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >> >>> Forest, >>> >>> Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is >>> incompatible with Later-no-Help. >>> >>> By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be >>> vulnerable to Burial strategy. >>> >>> Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet >>> method is futile. >>> >>> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X >>> >>> Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed, >>> CONDORCET is incompatible with >>> PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP. >>> >>> (b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP, >>> LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and, >>> in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP. >>> >>> (c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and >>> LATER-NO-HARM, >>> and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated >>> preference listings. >>> >>> Election 3. (1 seat) >>> 3 A>B>C >>> 3 B>C>A >>> 3 C>A>B >>> 2 A>C>B >>> 2 B>A>C >>> 2 C>B>A >>> >>> Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, >>> by the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P >>> arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type) >>> that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected >>> in P. >>> >>> But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by >>> CONDORCET, ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to >>> LATER-NO-HELP), >>> or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to >>> MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are >>> replaced by acb >>> (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together). >>> >>> This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b). >>> >>> >>> The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet >>> mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval >>> cutoff that I like are >>> Smith//Approval (ranking), Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and >>> >>> Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions. >>> >>> Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the >>> risk for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus". >>> >>> By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and >>> Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly >>> and badly in the presence >>> of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm >>> wary of Smith,DAC). >>> >>> So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and >>> truncation is fine. Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates >>> not in >>> the Smith set. >>> >>> Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a >>> "coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate >>> strictly above any of them. >>> >>> Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots >>> acquiesce to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the >>> candidate not in it. >>> Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet >>> disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one >>> candidate is left undisqualified. >>> >>> 46 A >>> 44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A) >>> 10 C >>> >>> In this example all candidates are in the Smith set. The acquiescing >>> coalitions are AC 56, BC 54, AB 46, A 46, B 44, C 10. >>> >>> AC disqualifies B, BC disqualifies A so C wins. >>> >>> That would be great for fans of the Minimal Defense criterion, but >>> would be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are >>> truncating against B. >>> >>> Chris B. >>> >>> >>> On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >>>> reasons: >>>> >>>> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW >>>> over the actual winner >>>> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >>>> complaint. >>>> >>>> And those voters could be more than half the total. >>>> >>>> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >>>> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >>>> Compromise incentive. >>>> >>>> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >>>> (especially if we decide to only refer >>>> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >>>> maximiser. >>>> >>>> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >>>> set. Condorcet is just the logical >>>> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >>>> >>>> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully >>>> they get something in return. >>>> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >>>> something else). >>>> >>>> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >>>> should we elect, I don't see that a >>>> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >>>> certainly nothing compared to an actual >>>> voted CW. >>>> >>>> Suppose sincere looks like: >>>> >>>> 49 A>>>C>B >>>> 48 B>>>C>A >>>> 03 C>A>>>B >>>> >>> My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis >>> of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. >>> >>> Max Approval is 52 >>> Min Approval is 3 >>> Midway is 27.5 >>> >>> So we eliminate C. >>> >>> Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the >>> only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. >>> >>> The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. >>> We respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. >>> >>> There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant >>> method. >>> >>> >>> >>>> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >>>> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >>>> maximiser. >>>> >>>> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the >>>> voters are all exhorted to express their full >>>> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >>>> be, because we don't want anything >>>> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >>>> >>> >>> This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning >>> jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from >>> English Common Law). >>> >>> Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... >>> and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. >>> >>>> >>>> So they vote: >>>> >>>> 49 A>C >>>> 48 B>C >>>> 03 C>A >>>> >>>> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >>>> sincere preferences were reversed or >>>> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >>>> >>>> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >>>> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >>>> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >>>> >>>> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >>>> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >>>> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't >>>> want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >>>> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >>>> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >>>> >>> >>> That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to >>> "fully inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna >>> Carta. >>> >>>> >>>> So they vote: >>>> >>>> 49 A >>>> 48 B >>>> 03 C>A >>>> >>>> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, >>>> due to so many voters truncating, that some other >>>> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >>>> >>> >>> Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is >>> one. >>> >>> In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one >>> exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its >>> absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far >>> the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with >>> "malice aforethought." >>> >>>> >>>> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever >>>> reason choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >>>> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer >>>> not to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >>>> >>>> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which >>>> produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >>>> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >>>> >>>> 46 A >>>> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >>>> 10 C >>>> >>> >>> Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant >>> method does here: >>> >>> The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 >>> for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as >>> the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. >>> >>> C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. >>> >>> So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. >>> >>> How does this work? >>> >>> Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but >>> Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing >>> the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good >>> at it as this example shows. >>> >>> Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or >>> backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was >>> buried. >>> >>> [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying >>> faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of >>> them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to >>> completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] >>> >>> Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a >>> "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect >>> the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner >>> .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes >>> against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate >>> even when Smith has more than three members. >>> >>> Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even >>> ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the >>> curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest >>> Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate >>> with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as >>> the weakest Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. >>> >>> [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which >>> beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the >>> insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] >>> >>> In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would >>> be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes >>> to it A. >>> >>> For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the >>> original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the >>> runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a >>> finalist in the runoff! >>> >>>> >>>> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >>>> >>> >>> Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that >>> kind of mistake. >>> >>>> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't >>>> any case that B has a stronger >>>> claim than A. >>>> >>>> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >>>> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >>>> apart >>>> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and >>>> mostly desirable. >>>> >>>> More later. >>>> >>>> Chris Benham >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >>>> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >>>> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> >>>> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >>>> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >>>> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >>>> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >>>> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >>>> >>>> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >>>> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >>>> insincere ballots (?) >>>> >>>> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >>>> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >>>> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >>>> results. What do you think? >>>> >>>> >>>>
C
C.Benham
Wed, Nov 8, 2023 4:07 AM

In my last EM post I included Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods
"that meets mono-raise".

A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit
that I can't prove that it does.

But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more
than three candidates in the top cycle,
and if I'm right about that then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it
(at least) as a quite burial-resistant curiosity
that is far less absurd than "elect the member of the Smith set that is
voted the least desirable".

However it may be too difficult to sell and explain for it to be a
practical proposal for elections to public office.

So leaving that method idea aside for the time being, I have become more
convinced that Condorcet methods should
(if they are to compete convincingly with IRV/RCV) use ballots that
allow voters to enter an explicit approval cutoff, with the
default placement being just below the candidate/s ranked below no others.

My favourite in this category is  Margins-Sorted Approval.  It is the
most elegant, as monotonic as any Condorcet method can
be, and its explanation and counting has no need of any concept of
cycles or "Smith sets".

And like all acceptable methods that use that type of ballot (like
Smith//Approval) it meets "Double Defeat" ( which says that
a candidate that is pairwise beaten by a more approved candidate can't win).

This means that if the voters who prefer a purported sincere CW to a
likely Burier's favourite wish to protect the purported
sincere CW from that burial, they can do so (if the purported sincere CW
really does pairwise beat the likely BF) by simply approving
the purported sincere CW and not approving the likely BF.

No need for anyone to truncate or insincerely equal-rank.

If we want still more Burial resistance, and are prepared to put up with
something much less monotonic and more clunky,
I suggest  "Double Defeat, Benham".

*Voters use ranked ballots with an explicit approval cutoff, default
placement just below first place. Above-bottom equal ranking
not allowed (otherwise Pushover strategising becomes easier and less risky).

Elect the CW if there is one. If not disqualify the Doubly Defeated
candidates. If more than one remains qualified then elect the
qualified candidate that pairwise beats all the others if there is one.
Otherwise proceed with IRV-style eliminations until one
qualified candidate pairwise beats any others remaining, and elect that
candidate.*

(That could probably put more clearly and succinctly).

So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant
Third.  I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method
can get more Burial resistant than that.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 7:02 am, C.Benham wrote:

Forest,

Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is
incompatible with Later-no-Help.

By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must
be vulnerable to Burial strategy.

Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet
method is futile.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X

Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed,
CONDORCET is incompatible with
PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP.

(b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP,
LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and,
in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP.

(c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and
LATER-NO-HARM,
and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated
preference listings.

Election 3. (1 seat)
3 A>B>C
3 B>C>A
3 C>A>B
2 A>C>B
2 B>A>C
2 C>B>A

Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie;
but, by the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P
arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each
type) that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose
a is elected in P.

But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by
CONDORCET,  ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to
LATER-NO-HELP),
or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to
MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are
replaced by acb
(contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together).

This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b).

The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet
mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval
cutoff that I like are
Smith//Approval (ranking),   Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and

Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions.

Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the
risk for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus".

By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and
Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very
oddly and badly in the presence
of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm
wary of Smith,DAC).

So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and
truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the
candidates not in
the Smith set.

Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a
"coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset)
candidate strictly above any of them.

Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots
acquiesce to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all
the candidate not in it.
Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet
disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on
until one candidate is left undisqualified.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A)
10 C

In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing
coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44, C 10.

AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins.

That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but
would be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are
truncating against B.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

 Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are
 three reasons:

 (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the
 CW over the actual winner
 a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to
 answer complaint.

 And those voters could be more than half the total.

 (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail
 Favorite Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
 Compromise incentive.

 (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked
 ballots (especially if we decide to only refer
 to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
 maximiser.

 If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the
 Smith set.  Condorcet is just the logical
 consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically
 Clone-Winner).

 Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but
 hopefully they get something in return.
 (For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
 something else).

 So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith
 set should we elect, I don't see that a
 supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
 certainly nothing compared to an actual
 voted CW.

 Suppose sincere looks like:

 49 A>>>C>B
 48 B>>>C>A
 03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the
nemesis of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is
the only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not
pairbeaten. We respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very
weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

 Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing
 their favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
 maximiser.

 Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the
 voters are all exhorted to express their full
 rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their
 preferences may be, because we don't want anything
 that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US
warning jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification"
(inherited from English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office
... and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

 So they vote:

 49 A>C
 48 B>C
 03 C>A

 C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal.
 No sincere preferences were reversed or
 "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

 (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet
 method IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
 elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

 Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being
 exhorted to fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
 message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we
 don't want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
 so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite
 ok to keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to
"fully inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the
Magna Carta.

 So they vote:

 49 A
 48 B
 03 C>A

 Now the voted CW is A.     Should anyone be seriously concerned
 that, due to so many voters truncating, that some other
 candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is
one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when
one exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that
its absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that
is by far the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether
innocently or with "malice aforethought."

 For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever
 reason choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
 is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should
 prefer not to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

 The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which
 produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by
 order-reversal
 Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

 46 A
 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
 10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant
method does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and
44 for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval
leaving C as the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite,
but Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better
at electing the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are
both pretty good at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate
was buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set
of them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ...
to completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the
idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to
a "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically
to elect the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of
the Nanson winner .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with
the most losing votes against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost
always the same candidate even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even
ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the
curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely
strongest Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the
Smith candidate with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against
the bus) the same as the weakest Smith  weakest Smith candidate to
defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken)
would be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest
losing votes to it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of
the runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ...
so not a finalist in the runoff!

 Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that
kind of mistake.

 Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there
 isn't any case that B has a stronger
 claim than A.

 I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction
 being stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a
 smaller one, but apart
 from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural
 and mostly desirable.

 More later.

 Chris Benham
 *Forest Simmons*forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
 <mailto:election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
 /Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023/
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
 ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
 inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
 that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
 outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

 Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
 cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
 insincere ballots (?)

 Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
 answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
 voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
 results. What do you think?
In my last EM post I included Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods "that meets mono-raise". A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit that I can't prove that it does. But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more than three candidates in the top cycle, and if I'm right about that then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it (at least) as a quite burial-resistant curiosity that is far less absurd than "elect the member of the Smith set that is voted the least desirable". However it may be too difficult to sell and explain for it to be a practical proposal for elections to public office. So leaving that method idea aside for the time being, I have become more convinced that Condorcet methods should (if they are to compete convincingly with IRV/RCV) use ballots that allow voters to enter an explicit approval cutoff, with the default placement being just below the candidate/s ranked below no others. My favourite in this category is  Margins-Sorted Approval.  It is the most elegant, as monotonic as any Condorcet method can be, and its explanation and counting has no need of any concept of cycles or "Smith sets". And like all acceptable methods that use that type of ballot (like Smith//Approval) it meets "Double Defeat" ( which says that a candidate that is pairwise beaten by a more approved candidate can't win). This means that if the voters who prefer a purported sincere CW to a likely Burier's favourite wish to protect the purported sincere CW from that burial, they can do so (if the purported sincere CW really does pairwise beat the likely BF) by simply approving the purported sincere CW and not approving the likely BF. No need for anyone to truncate or insincerely equal-rank. If we want still more Burial resistance, and are prepared to put up with something much less monotonic and more clunky, I suggest  "Double Defeat, Benham". *Voters use ranked ballots with an explicit approval cutoff, default placement just below first place. Above-bottom equal ranking not allowed (otherwise Pushover strategising becomes easier and less risky). Elect the CW if there is one. If not disqualify the Doubly Defeated candidates. If more than one remains qualified then elect the qualified candidate that pairwise beats all the others if there is one. Otherwise proceed with IRV-style eliminations until one qualified candidate pairwise beats any others remaining, and elect that candidate.* (That could probably put more clearly and succinctly). So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant Third.  I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method can get more Burial resistant than that. Chris B. On 4/11/2023 7:02 am, C.Benham wrote: > > Forest, > > Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is > incompatible with Later-no-Help. > > By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must > be vulnerable to Burial strategy. > > Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet > method is futile. > > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X > >> Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed, >> CONDORCET is incompatible with >> PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP. >> >> (b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP, >> LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and, >> in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP. >> >> (c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and >> LATER-NO-HARM, >> and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated >> preference listings. >> >> Election 3. (1 seat) >> 3 A>B>C >> 3 B>C>A >> 3 C>A>B >> 2 A>C>B >> 2 B>A>C >> 2 C>B>A >> >> Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; >> but, by the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P >> arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each >> type) that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose >> a is elected in P. >> >> But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by >> CONDORCET,  ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to >> LATER-NO-HELP), >> or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to >> MONO-RAISE-DELETE and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are >> replaced by acb >> (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together). >> >> This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b). > > The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet > mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval > cutoff that I like are > Smith//Approval (ranking),   Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and > > Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions. > > Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the > risk for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus". > > By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and > Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very > oddly and badly in the presence > of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm > wary of Smith,DAC). > > So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and > truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the > candidates not in > the Smith set. > > Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a > "coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) > candidate strictly above any of them. > > Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots > acquiesce to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all > the candidate not in it. > Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet > disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on > until one candidate is left undisqualified. > > 46 A > 44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A) > 10 C > > In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing > coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44, C 10. > > AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins. > > That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but > would be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are > truncating against B. > > Chris B. > > > On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote: >> >> >> On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: >> >> >> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are >> three reasons: >> >> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the >> CW over the actual winner >> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to >> answer complaint. >> >> And those voters could be more than half the total. >> >> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail >> Favorite Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >> Compromise incentive. >> >> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked >> ballots (especially if we decide to only refer >> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >> maximiser. >> >> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the >> Smith set.  Condorcet is just the logical >> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically >> Clone-Winner). >> >> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but >> hopefully they get something in return. >> (For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >> something else). >> >> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith >> set should we elect, I don't see that a >> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >> certainly nothing compared to an actual >> voted CW. >> >> Suppose sincere looks like: >> >> 49 A>>>C>B >> 48 B>>>C>A >> 03 C>A>>>B >> >> My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the >> nemesis of the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. >> >> Max Approval is 52 >> Min Approval is 3 >> Midway is 27.5 >> >> So we eliminate C. >> >> Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is >> the only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. >> >> The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not >> pairbeaten. We respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very >> weak CW. >> >> There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant >> method. >> >> >> >> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing >> their favourites.  In that case A is the big utility >> maximiser. >> >> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the >> voters are all exhorted to express their full >> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their >> preferences may be, because we don't want anything >> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >> >> >> This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US >> warning jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" >> (inherited from English Common Law). >> >> Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office >> ... and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho. >> >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A>C >> 48 B>C >> 03 C>A >> >> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. >> No sincere preferences were reversed or >> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >> >> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet >> method IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >> >> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being >> exhorted to fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we >> don't want anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite >> ok to keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >> >> >> That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to >> "fully inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the >> Magna Carta. >> >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A >> 48 B >> 03 C>A >> >> Now the voted CW is A.     Should anyone be seriously concerned >> that, due to so many voters truncating, that some other >> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >> >> >> Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is >> one. >> >> In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when >> one exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that >> its absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that >> is by far the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether >> innocently or with "malice aforethought." >> >> >> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever >> reason choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should >> prefer not to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >> >> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which >> produces outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by >> order-reversal >> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >> >> 46 A >> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >> 10 C >> >> >> Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant >> method does here: >> >> The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and >> 44 for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval >> leaving C as the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. >> >> C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. >> >> So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. >> >> How does this work? >> >> Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, >> but Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better >> at electing the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are >> both pretty good at it as this example shows. >> >> Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or >> backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate >> was buried. >> >> [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying >> faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set >> of them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... >> to completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the >> idea.] >> >> Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to >> a "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically >> to elect the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of >> the Nanson winner .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with >> the most losing votes against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost >> always the same candidate even when Smith has more than three members. >> >> Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even >> ordinary Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the >> curjous, you can always do a sincere runoff between the likely >> strongest Bus (the nemesis of the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the >> Smith candidate with the fewest losing votes against it (i.e.against >> the bus) the same as the weakest Smith  weakest Smith candidate to >> defeat the BFF. >> >> [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which >> beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the >> insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] >> >> In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) >> would be between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest >> losing votes to it A. >> >> For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the >> original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of >> the runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... >> so not a finalist in the runoff! >> >> >> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >> >> >> Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that >> kind of mistake. >> >> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there >> isn't any case that B has a stronger >> claim than A. >> >> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction >> being stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a >> smaller one, but apart >> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural >> and mostly desirable. >> >> More later. >> >> Chris Benham >> >> >> >> >> >>> *Forest Simmons*forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >>> <mailto:election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >>> /Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023/ >>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >>> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >>> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >>> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >>> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >>> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >>> >>> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >>> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >>> insincere ballots (?) >>> >>> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >>> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >>> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >>> results. What do you think? >>
KM
Kristofer Munsterhjelm
Wed, Nov 8, 2023 1:00 PM

On 11/8/23 05:07, C.Benham wrote:

In my last EM post I included Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods
"that meets mono-raise".

A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit
that I can't prove that it does.

But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more
than three candidates in the top cycle, and if I'm right about that
then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it (at least) as a quite
burial-resistant curiosity that is far less absurd than "elect the
member of the Smith set that is voted the least desirable".

I suspect that you're right, and this holds for monotone methods in
general. Here's the reasoning:

Suppose we have an ABCA cycle in Smith//X, where X is some monotone
method. Our strategy to show nonmonotonicity is to shrink the Smith set
to make the winner change, since raising A can never grow the Smith set.
(Note that there may be more candidates outside the Smith set, but
they're all irrelevant for our purposes.)

Suppose that we try to kick B off the Smith set. But this is impossible
since raising A can never alter B>C or C>B, and it can only increase
A>B. Since we already have A>B, raising A can't kick B off the set.

Okay, so suppose that we try to kick C off the Smith set since C>A. But
if we reverse this, then we have both A>B and A>C, which would make A
the Condorcet winner. Hence kicking C off the Smith set won't work.

So in neither case can this lead to nonmonotonicity if the base method
is monotone.

Sounds about right?

So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant
Third.  I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method
can get more Burial resistant than that.

What is your definition of UMDT? I had some trouble trying to generalize
DMTCBR to an actual DMT set criterion, so it would be interesting to know.

The problem I encountered was that, if the method also passes DMT
(without which DMT burial resistance would be kind of strange), then the
pre-burial winner W is part of the innermost DMT set. And then when
voters who prefer X to W downrank W, they often change the relative
order of candidates within the DMT set on their ballots.

E.g. if A, B, C are also part of the DMT set, then X>W>A>B>C>D voters
changing their votes to X>A>B>C>D>W change their pairwise preference
between, for instance, A and W. Even though they prefer a non-DMT
candidate to the DMT set, their burial of the winner changes the
relative order within the set.

If we require that such alterations - burials within the DMT set -
should not matter, then the Smith-IRV hybrids fail since they're not
absolutely unburiable, e.g.:

1: A>C>B
1: B>C>A
1: C>B>A

C is the CW, then

1: A>C>B
1: B>A>C <- burying C under A
1: C>B>A

is a perfect tie and every candidate has equal chance of winning.

Perhaps something like "the new winner should not be preferred by the
buriers to the old winner". Or "should not be someone who was outside
the DMT set before the burial started"? But I'm not sure what properly
captures the strong type of resistance that the Smith-IRV hybrids pass
and that leads to generally low strategic vulnerability.

-km

On 11/8/23 05:07, C.Benham wrote: > In my last EM post I included Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods > "that meets mono-raise". > > A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit > that I can't prove that it does. > > But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more > than three candidates in the top cycle, and if I'm right about that > then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it (at least) as a quite > burial-resistant curiosity that is far less absurd than "elect the > member of the Smith set that is voted the least desirable". I suspect that you're right, and this holds for monotone methods in general. Here's the reasoning: Suppose we have an ABCA cycle in Smith//X, where X is some monotone method. Our strategy to show nonmonotonicity is to shrink the Smith set to make the winner change, since raising A can never grow the Smith set. (Note that there may be more candidates *outside* the Smith set, but they're all irrelevant for our purposes.) Suppose that we try to kick B off the Smith set. But this is impossible since raising A can never alter B>C or C>B, and it can only increase A>B. Since we already have A>B, raising A can't kick B off the set. Okay, so suppose that we try to kick C off the Smith set since C>A. But if we reverse this, then we have both A>B and A>C, which would make A the Condorcet winner. Hence kicking C off the Smith set won't work. So in neither case can this lead to nonmonotonicity if the base method is monotone. Sounds about right? > So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant > Third.  I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method > can get more Burial resistant than that. What is your definition of UMDT? I had some trouble trying to generalize DMTCBR to an actual DMT set criterion, so it would be interesting to know. The problem I encountered was that, if the method also passes DMT (without which DMT burial resistance would be kind of strange), then the pre-burial winner W is part of the innermost DMT set. And then when voters who prefer X to W downrank W, they often change the relative order of candidates within the DMT set on their ballots. E.g. if A, B, C are also part of the DMT set, then X>W>A>B>C>D voters changing their votes to X>A>B>C>D>W change their pairwise preference between, for instance, A and W. Even though they prefer a non-DMT candidate to the DMT set, their burial of the winner changes the relative order within the set. If we require that such alterations - burials *within* the DMT set - should not matter, then the Smith-IRV hybrids fail since they're not absolutely unburiable, e.g.: 1: A>C>B 1: B>C>A 1: C>B>A C is the CW, then 1: A>C>B 1: B>A>C <- burying C under A 1: C>B>A is a perfect tie and every candidate has equal chance of winning. Perhaps something like "the new winner should not be preferred by the buriers to the old winner". Or "should not be someone who was outside the DMT set before the burial started"? But I'm not sure what properly captures the strong type of resistance that the Smith-IRV hybrids pass and that leads to generally low strategic vulnerability. -km
FS
Forest Simmons
Thu, Nov 9, 2023 2:28 PM

On Tue, Nov 7, 2023, 8:29 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

In my last EM post I included  Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods
"that meets mono-raise".

A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit
that I can't prove that it does.

But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more than
three candidates in the top cycle,
and if I'm right about that then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it
(at least) as a quite burial-resistant curiosity
that is far less absurd than "elect the member of the Smith set that is
voted the least desirable".

However it may be too difficult to sell and explain for it to be a
practical proposal for elections to public office.

So leaving that method idea aside for the time being, I have become more
convinced that Condorcet methods should
(if they are to compete convincingly with IRV/RCV) use ballots that allow
voters to enter an explicit approval cutoff,

Universal Domain Purists who cannot countenance this lever are (IMHO) on
the wrong side of history ... no other extension of Ranked Preference
Ballots gives so much bang for the buck.

with the

default placement being just below the candidate/s ranked below no others.

My favourite in this category is  Margins-Sorted Approval.  It is the most
elegant, as monotonic as any Condorcet method can
be, and its explanation and counting has no need of any concept of cycles
or "Smith sets".

Initialize a list L of candidates in order of approval with more approved
candidates listed higher. Then if any candidate is pairbeaten by the
candidate listed immediately below it update the list by swapping the
positions of the members of the "out of order" pair with the least approval
discrepancy.... continuing until no candidate is pairbeaten by the
candidate immediately below it in the updated list ... in other words until
the list L has become a "beatpath" ... the beatpath that conforms most
closely to the approval order.

This accomplishes simplyand easily what the much vaunted Kenmeny Young
method fails to achieve ... a quadratic  time,  clone independent,
Condorcet finish order.

This finish order has many useful applications beyond the scope of this
remark.... I only mention the family of agenda based Sequential Pairwise
Elimination With TakeDown methods ...  that make even thinking about burial
too risky to venture ... even for Evel Knievel types:

Initialize L in the Approval Sorted Margins order.
Then while more than one candidate remains .... of the two at the bottom of
the list, eliminate the one pairbeaten by the other as well as every other
candidate that it pairbeats.
EndWhile

The remaining candidate is almost certainly the main bus under which the
buried candidate was thrown ... if indeed the lack of ballot CW was caused
by burial or truncation .... the most likely cause.

In the rare case of some other cause .... the winner is still a Banks
candidate standing as it does at the head of a maximal chain totally
ordered by the pairbeat relation.

[The other members of the chain are the "take-down" pivots of the
respective elimination steps.] In particular it is immune to covering
complaints ... unlike any  extant method except Copeland .... which is
unacceptably clone dependent.

And like all acceptable methods that use that type of ballot (like
Smith//Approval) it meets "Double Defeat" ( which says that
a candidate that is pairwise beaten by a more approved candidate can't
win).

This means that if the voters who prefer a purported sincere CW to a
likely Burier's favourite wish to protect the purported
sincere CW from that burial, they can do so (if the purported sincere CW
really does pairwise beat the likely BF) by simply approving
the purported sincere CW and not approving the likely BF.

No need for anyone to truncate or insincerely equal-rank.

Isn't this what we were looking for when we got into voting reform?

Where else is it accomplished so efficiently with so little burden on the
voters?

If we want still more Burial resistance, and are prepared to put up with
something much less monotonic and more clunky,
I suggest  "Double Defeat, Benham".

*Voters use ranked ballots with an explicit approval cutoff, default
placement just below first place. Above-bottom equal ranking
not allowed (otherwise Pushover strategising becomes easier and less
risky).

Elect the CW if there is one. If not disqualify the Doubly Defeated
candidates. If more than one remains qualified then elect the
qualified candidate that pairwise beats all the others if there is one.
Otherwise proceed with IRV-style eliminations until one
qualified candidate pairwise beats any others remaining, and elect that
candidate.*

(That could probably put more clearly and succinctly).

So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant
Third.  I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method
can get more Burial resistant than that.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 7:02 am, C.Benham wrote:

Forest,

Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is
incompatible with Later-no-Help.

By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be
vulnerable to Burial strategy.

Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method
is futile.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X

Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed,
CONDORCET is incompatible with
PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP.

(b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP,
LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and,
in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP.

(c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and
LATER-NO-HARM,
and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated
preference listings.

Election 3. (1 seat)
3 A>B>C
3 B>C>A
3 C>A>B
2 A>C>B
2 B>A>C
2 C>B>A

Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by
the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P
arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type)
that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected
in P.

But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET,
...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP),
or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to MONO-RAISE-DELETE
and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are replaced by acb
(contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together).

This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b).

The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet
mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval
cutoff that I like are
Smith//Approval (ranking),  Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and

Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions.

Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk
for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus".

By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and
Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly
and badly in the presence
of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary
of Smith,DAC).

So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and
truncation is fine.  Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates
not in
the Smith set.

Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a
"coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate
strictly above any of them.

Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce
to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate
not in it.
Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet
disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one
candidate is left undisqualified.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A)
10 C

In this example all candidates are in the Smith set.  The acquiescing
coalitions are  AC 56,  BC 54,  AB 46,  A 46,  B 44,  C 10.

AC disqualifies B,  BC disqualifies A so  C wins.

That would be great for fans of  the Minimal Defense criterion, but would
be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are
truncating against B.

Chris B.

On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote:

On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham cbenham@adam.com.au wrote:

Why do we support the Condorcet criterion?  For me there are three
reasons:

(1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over
the actual winner
a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer
complaint.

And those voters could be more than half the total.

(2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite
Betrayal) is the best way to minimise
Compromise incentive.

(3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots
(especially if we decide to only refer
to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility
maximiser.

If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith
set.  Condorcet is just the logical
consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner).

Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they
get something in return.
(For example I think Min Max Margins  gets Mono-add-Top and maybe
something else).

So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set
should we elect, I don't see that a
supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim,
certainly nothing compared to an actual
voted CW.

Suppose sincere looks like:

49 A>>>C>B
48 B>>>C>A
03 C>A>>>B

My favorite burial proof  method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of
the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner.

Max Approval is 52
Min Approval is 3
Midway is 27.5

So we eliminate C.

Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the
only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner.

The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We
respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW.

There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant
method.

Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their
favourites.  In that case A is the big utility
maximiser.

Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters
are all exhorted to express their full
rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may
be, because we don't want anything
that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP.

This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning
jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from
English Common Law).

Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ...
and should be stripped of their holy robes ...  imho.

So they vote:

49 A>C
48 B>C
03 C>A

C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No
sincere preferences were reversed or
"concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW".

(In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method
IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially
elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.)

Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to
fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the
message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want
anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out")
so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to
keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking."

That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully
inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta.

So they vote:

49 A
48 B
03 C>A

Now the voted CW is A.    Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due
to so many voters truncating, that some other
candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"?

Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one.

In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one
exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its
absence was most likely  caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far
the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with
"malice aforethought."

For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason
choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that
is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not
to know about weak and uncertain preferences.

The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces
outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal
Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation.

46 A
44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A)
10 C

Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method
does here:

The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44
for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as
the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect.

C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A.

So A is the winner of our burial resistant method.

How does this work?

Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but
Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing
the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good
at it as this example shows.

Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or
backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was
buried.

[Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying
faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of
them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to
completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.]

Like I said you can go in either direction  around the cycle to get to a
"bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect
the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner
.... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes
against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate
even when Smith has more than three members.

Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary
Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate.  But for the curjous, you can
always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of
the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest
losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest
Smith  weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF.

[It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which
beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the
insincere cycle resulting from the burial.]

In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be
between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to
it A.

For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the
original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the
runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a
finalist in the runoff!

Electing B here is completely unacceptable.

Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind
of mistake.

Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any
case that B has a stronger
claim than A.

I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being
stung by a successful  truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but
apart
from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly
desirable.

More later.

Chris Benham

Forest Simmons forest.simmons21 at gmail.com
<election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E>
Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023

Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences
... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable
inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots
that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election
outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?)

Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot
cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of
insincere ballots (?)

Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the
answer, the  best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the
voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal
results. What do you think?

On Tue, Nov 7, 2023, 8:29 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > In my last EM post I included Smith//DAC in a list of Condorcet methods > "that meets mono-raise". > > A knowledgeable correspondent has cast doubt on this claim, and I admit > that I can't prove that it does. > > But I am fairly sure that any failure example needs there to me more than > three candidates in the top cycle, > and if I'm right about that then I'm not concerned enough to scratch it > (at least) as a quite burial-resistant curiosity > that is far less absurd than "elect the member of the Smith set that is > voted the least desirable". > > However it may be too difficult to sell and explain for it to be a > practical proposal for elections to public office. > > So leaving that method idea aside for the time being, I have become more > convinced that Condorcet methods should > (if they are to compete convincingly with IRV/RCV) use ballots that allow > voters to enter an explicit approval cutoff, > Universal Domain Purists who cannot countenance this lever are (IMHO) on the wrong side of history ... no other extension of Ranked Preference Ballots gives so much bang for the buck. with the > default placement being just below the candidate/s ranked below no others. > > My favourite in this category is Margins-Sorted Approval. It is the most > elegant, as monotonic as any Condorcet method can > be, and its explanation and counting has no need of any concept of cycles > or "Smith sets". > Initialize a list L of candidates in order of approval with more approved candidates listed higher. Then if any candidate is pairbeaten by the candidate listed immediately below it update the list by swapping the positions of the members of the "out of order" pair with the least approval discrepancy.... continuing until no candidate is pairbeaten by the candidate immediately below it in the updated list ... in other words until the list L has become a "beatpath" ... the beatpath that conforms most closely to the approval order. This accomplishes simplyand easily what the much vaunted Kenmeny Young method fails to achieve ... a quadratic time, clone independent, Condorcet finish order. This finish order has many useful applications beyond the scope of this remark.... I only mention the family of agenda based Sequential Pairwise Elimination With TakeDown methods ... that make even thinking about burial too risky to venture ... even for Evel Knievel types: Initialize L in the Approval Sorted Margins order. Then while more than one candidate remains .... of the two at the bottom of the list, eliminate the one pairbeaten by the other as well as every other candidate that it pairbeats. EndWhile The remaining candidate is almost certainly the main bus under which the buried candidate was thrown ... if indeed the lack of ballot CW was caused by burial or truncation .... the most likely cause. In the rare case of some other cause .... the winner is still a Banks candidate standing as it does at the head of a maximal chain totally ordered by the pairbeat relation. [The other members of the chain are the "take-down" pivots of the respective elimination steps.] In particular it is immune to covering complaints ... unlike any extant method except Copeland .... which is unacceptably clone dependent. > And like all acceptable methods that use that type of ballot (like > Smith//Approval) it meets "Double Defeat" ( which says that > a candidate that is pairwise beaten by a more approved candidate can't > win). > > This means that if the voters who prefer a purported sincere CW to a > likely Burier's favourite wish to protect the purported > sincere CW from that burial, they can do so (if the purported sincere CW > really does pairwise beat the likely BF) by simply approving > the purported sincere CW and not approving the likely BF. > > No need for anyone to truncate or insincerely equal-rank. > Isn't this what we were looking for when we got into voting reform? Where else is it accomplished so efficiently with so little burden on the voters? > > If we want still more Burial resistance, and are prepared to put up with > something much less monotonic and more clunky, > I suggest "Double Defeat, Benham". > > *Voters use ranked ballots with an explicit approval cutoff, default > placement just below first place. Above-bottom equal ranking > not allowed (otherwise Pushover strategising becomes easier and less > risky). > > Elect the CW if there is one. If not disqualify the Doubly Defeated > candidates. If more than one remains qualified then elect the > qualified candidate that pairwise beats all the others if there is one. > Otherwise proceed with IRV-style eliminations until one > qualified candidate pairwise beats any others remaining, and elect that > candidate.* > > (That could probably put more clearly and succinctly). > > So this method meets both Double Defeat and Unburiable Mutual Dominant > Third. I doubt that an acceptable Condorcet method > can get more Burial resistant than that. > > Chris B. > > > > On 4/11/2023 7:02 am, C.Benham wrote: > > Forest, > > Douglas Woodall in a 1996 article demonstrated that Condorcet is > incompatible with Later-no-Help. > > By simple logic we know that any method that fails Later-no-Help must be > vulnerable to Burial strategy. > > Therefore your quest to invent a completely burial-proof Condorcet method > is futile. > > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166218X9600100X > > Theorem 2. (a) Even if truncated preference listings are not allowed, > CONDORCET is incompatible with > PARTICIPATION, MONO-RAISE-RANDOM and MONO-SUB-TOP. > > (b) In general, CONDORCET is incompatible with LATER-NO-HELP, > LATER-NO-HARM, MONO-RAISE-DELETE, MONO-SUB-PLUMP and, > in the presence of PLURALITY, MONO-ADD-TOP. > > (c) There is no election rule that sutisfies LATER-NO-HELP and > LATER-NO-HARM, > and that also satisfies CONDORCET whenever there are no truncated > preference listings. > > Election 3. (1 seat) > 3 A>B>C > 3 B>C>A > 3 C>A>B > 2 A>C>B > 2 B>A>C > 2 C>B>A > > Consider Election 3. By symmetry, the result must be a 3-way tie; but, by > the axiom of discrimination, there must be a profile P > arbitrarily close to this (in the proportions of ballots of each type) > that does not yield a tie. Without loss of generality, suppose a is elected > in P. > > But c becomes the Condorcet winner, and so must be elected by CONDORCET, > ...if all the abc ballots are replaced by a (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP), > or if all the bac ballots are replaced by a (contrary to MONO-RAISE-DELETE > and MONO-SUB-PLUMP), or if all the abc ballots are replaced by acb > (contrary to LATER-NO-HELP and LATER-NO-HARM together). > > This proves (a), (c) and three parts of (b). > > > The three relatively burial-resistant Condorcet methods that meet > mono-raise and don't ask or allow voters to enter an explicit approval > cutoff that I like are > Smith//Approval (ranking), Margins-Sorted Approval (ranking), and > > Smith//Descending Acquiescing Coalitions. > > Not allowing voters to rank among unapproved candidates increase the risk > for Burial strategists that they will simply elect their "bus". > > By itself DAC (one of Woodall's inventions) meets Later-no-Help and > Participation (both incompatible with Condorcet) but can behave very oddly > and badly in the presence > of one or two weak should-be-irrelevant candidates (which is why I'm wary > of Smith,DAC). > > So defining it thus: Voters rank from the top, equal ranking and > truncation is fine. Eliminate and drop from the ballots all the candidates > not in > the Smith set. > > Ballots "acquiesce" to a candidate or set or subset of candidates (a > "coalition") if they vote no other (outside the set or subset) candidate > strictly above any of them. > > Number all the possible coalitions according to how may ballots acquiesce > to them. Start with the highest-numbered and disqualify all the candidate > not in it. > Proceed to the next-highest numbered that contains any not-yet > disqualified candidates and disqualify those not in it, and so on until one > candidate is left undisqualified. > > 46 A > 44 B>C (sincere might be B or B>A) > 10 C > > In this example all candidates are in the Smith set. The acquiescing > coalitions are AC 56, BC 54, AB 46, A 46, B 44, C 10. > > AC disqualifies B, BC disqualifies A so C wins. > > That would be great for fans of the Minimal Defense criterion, but would > be sad if the B>C voters are sincere and the C voters are > truncating against B. > > Chris B. > > > On 4/11/2023 12:05 am, Forest Simmons wrote: > > > > On Mon, Oct 30, 2023, 6:21 PM C.Benham <cbenham@adam.com.au> wrote: > >> >> Why do we support the Condorcet criterion? For me there are three >> reasons: >> >> (1) Failure to elect a voted CW can give the voters who voted the CW over >> the actual winner >> a potentially very strong, difficult (if not impossible ) to answer >> complaint. >> >> And those voters could be more than half the total. >> >> (2) Always electing a voted CW is (among methods that fail Favorite >> Betrayal) is the best way to minimise >> Compromise incentive. >> >> (3) Limited to the information we can glean for pure ranked ballots >> (especially if we decide to only refer >> to the pairwise matrix), the voted CW is the most likely utility >> maximiser. >> >> If there is no voted CW , then the winner should come from the Smith >> set. Condorcet is just the logical >> consequence of Smith and Clone Independence (specifically Clone-Winner). >> >> Some methods are able to meet Condorcet but not Smith, but hopefully they >> get something in return. >> (For example I think Min Max Margins gets Mono-add-Top and maybe >> something else). >> >> So coming to the question of which individual member of the Smith set >> should we elect, I don't see that a >> supposed, guessed-at "sincere CW" has an especially strong claim, >> certainly nothing compared to an actual >> voted CW. >> >> Suppose sincere looks like: >> >> 49 A>>>C>B >> 48 B>>>C>A >> 03 C>A>>>B >> > My favorite burial proof method is to elect the nemesis of the nemesis of > the (repeated) Submidway Approval Elimination winner. > > Max Approval is 52 > Min Approval is 3 > Midway is 27.5 > > So we eliminate C. > > Updating approvals we have 52 for A and 48 for B. Midway is 50. B is the > only Sub Midway candidate so A is the SubMidway Approval winner. > > The nemesis of A is C, and C has no nemesis because it not pairbeaten. We > respect the Condorcet Criterion and elect C, a very weak CW. > > There is no way out of it if we want a Condorcet Criterion Compliant > method. > > > >> Suppose that all voters get about the same utility from electing their >> favourites. In that case A is the big utility >> maximiser. >> >> Now suppose that this is say the first post-FPP election, and the voters >> are all exhorted to express their full >> rankings, no matter how weak or uncertain some of their preferences may >> be, because we don't want anything >> that looks like the (shudder) "minority rule" we had under FPP. >> > > This reminds me of the practice omanipulative judges in the US warning > jurors to ignore their sacred right of "Jury Nullification" (inherited from > English Common Law). > > Those lying (by intimidation) judges are a disgrace to their office ... > and should be stripped of their holy robes ... imho. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A>C >> 48 B>C >> 03 C>A >> >> C is the voted CW. For some pro-Condorcet zealots, this is ideal. No >> sincere preferences were reversed or >> "concealed", resulting in the election of the "sincere CW". >> >> (In passing I note that in most places if the non-Condorcet method >> IRV/RCV were used, A would be uncontroversially >> elected probably without anyone even noticing that C is the CW.) >> >> Backing up a bit, suppose that instead of the voters being exhorted to >> fully rank no-matter-what, they are given the >> message "this election is for a serious powerful office, so we don't want >> anything like GIGO ("garbage in, garbage out") >> so if some of your preferences are weak or uncertain it is quite ok to >> keep them to yourself via truncation or equal-ranking." >> > > That warning should be mandatory ... as should an honest effort to "fully > inform" a jury of their most sacred rights predatimg even the Magna Carta. > >> >> So they vote: >> >> 49 A >> 48 B >> 03 C>A >> >> Now the voted CW is A. Should anyone be seriously concerned that, due >> to so many voters truncating, that some other >> candidate might actually be the "sincere CW"? >> > > Your example shows the wisdom of electing the ballot CW when there is one. > > In fact, all of our burial resistant methods elect the voted CW when one > exists. But when one does not exist we suspiciously suspect that its > absence was most likely caused by subversion of a CW, since that is by far > the easiest way to create a beat cycle ... whether innocently or with > "malice aforethought." > >> >> For me, if voters have the freedom to fully rank but for whatever reason >> choose to truncate (and/or equal-rank, assuming that >> is allowed) a lot of that is fine and the voting method should prefer not >> to know about weak and uncertain preferences. >> >> The type of insincere voting that most concerns me is that which produces >> outrageous failure of Later-no-Help, achieving by order-reversal >> Burial what could not have been done by simple truncation. >> >> 46 A >> 44 B>C (sincere is B or B>A) >> 10 C >> > > Let's see what our Sub Midway Approval Elimination burial resistant method > does here: > > The respective max and min implicit approval scores are 54 for C and 44 > for B. So Midway is 49. Both A and B have Sub Midway Approval leaving C as > the candidate whose nemesis's nemesis we should elect. > > C's nemesis is B, and B's nemesis is A. > > So A is the winner of our burial resistant method. > > How does this work? > > Well, Nanson is very good at fingering the Burial Faction Favorite, but > Poor man's Nanson aka SubMidApproval Elimination is even better at electing > the BFF than ordinary Nanson or RP wv, although they are both pretty good > at it as this example shows. > > Once you have the likely BFF you can follow the cycle forward one or > backward two candidates to the "bus" under which the buried candidate was > buried. > > [Electing this "bus" is what makes the method backfire on the burying > faction ... so electing the strongest bus (their could be a clone set of > them) is the proper aim of a good burial proof method designer ... to > completely deter potential subverters from even flirting with the idea.] > > Like I said you can go in either direction around the cycle to get to a > "bus" from the BFF candidate .... but it's better psychologically to elect > the syrongest wv defeater of the strongest wv defeater of the Nanson winner > .... as opposed to saying "Elect the candidate with the most losing votes > against the Nanson winner" .. they are almost always the same candidate > even when Smith has more than three members. > > Like I say, SubMidAolroval Elimination is more reliable than even ordinary > Nanson or RP wv at finding the BFF candidate. But for the curjous, you can > always do a sincere runoff between the likely strongest Bus (the nemesis of > the nemesis of the likely BFF), and the Smith candidate with the fewest > losing votes against it (i.e.against the bus) the same as the weakest > Smith weakest Smith candidate to defeat the BFF. > > [It is easy to show that a subverted CW always defeats the BFF, which > beats the bus that beat the buried candidate that precipitated the > insincere cycle resulting from the burial.] > > In this example the sincere runoff (were that option to be taken) would be > between the Bus A and the Smith candidate B with the fewest losing votes to > it A. > > For the sincere winner of this runoff we have to go clear back to the > original scenario. And it turns out that A is the sincere winner of the > runoff, because C, the sincere CW was acting more like a BFF ... so not a > finalist in the runoff! > >> >> Electing B here is completely unacceptable. >> > > Right, and now we have a method designed to automatically avoid that kind > of mistake. > >> Regardless of whether or not the B>C voters are sincere, there isn't any >> case that B has a stronger >> claim than A. >> >> I don't like (but it can sometimes be justified) a larger faction being >> stung by a successful truncation Defection strategy of a smaller one, but >> apart >> from that I consider a lot of truncation to be normal, natural and mostly >> desirable. >> >> More later. >> >> Chris Benham >> >> >> >> >> >> *Forest Simmons* forest.simmons21 at gmail.com >> <election-methods%40lists.electorama.com?Subject=Re%3A%20%5BEM%5D%20Benefit%20of%20a%20doubt%20runoff%20challenge&In-Reply-To=%3CCANUDvfru_xs%2BEE6kd7Xbb4p%2Bsh3Zijqy-yCmBwNPOdwLP1emgQ%40mail.gmail.com%3E> >> *Sun Oct 29 21:30:58 PDT 2023* >> ------------------------------ >> >> Are the beatcycles that sometimes arise from expressed ballot preferences >> ... are these cycles more likely to arise from occasional inevitable >> inconsistencies inherent in sincerely voted ballots? ... or from ballots >> that reflect exaggerated preferences from attempts to improve the election >> outcome over the one likely to result from honest, unexagerated ballots (?) >> >> Should Condorcet methods be designed on the assumption that most ballot >> cycles are sincere? .... or on the assumption that most are the result of >> insincere ballots (?) >> >> Some people think that the question is irrelevant ... that no matter the >> answer, the best result will be obtained by assuming the sincerity of the >> voted ballots. Others think healthy skepticism is necessary for optimal >> results. What do you think? >> >> >> >